WNBA Picks
We saw a couple of big upsets in the WNBA last night, as the Toronto Tempo took down the New York Liberty as 7.5-point underdogs and the Indiana Fever dismantled the Las Vegas Aces in Vegas (again). Tonight, we’ve got just two games ahead, featuring the LA Sparks visiting the Atlanta Dream and the Minnesota Lynx hosting the Phoenix Mercury. Here are the TSI projections for both games.
Atlanta Dream (-8.5) vs LA Sparks, O/U 180.5
Atlanta has been 11 points worse than its season average over the last five games, and played 10 points worse last game without Angel Reese in the lineup. LA has been 3.5 points better than its season average over its last three games, including back-to-back wins while scoring 100 points. TSI projects Atlanta -9 with a total of 182.5, but Angel Reese is questionable for Atlanta, so until her status is confirmed, I really don’t want any part of this game because Atlanta’s metrics are all over the place without her – they lost and gave up 102 points to Portland without her last game. This game is a pass for me.
Minnesota Lynx (-12.5) vs Phoenix Mercury, O/U 169.5
Minnesota has been seven points worse than its season average over its last five, although Olivia Miles sat out some of those games. But even before Miles’s injury, they were not playing their best ball of the season. Phoenix is coming off an absolute thumping by Vegas, and has been six points below their season average over the last 5 games. TSI projects Lynx -11 with a total of 168.5, and I think this is a really good bounce-back spot for Phoenix, who’s due about eight points of positive regression. Phoenix has oddly been about three points better on the road than at home this season, and Minnesota has been just a tad worse against teams outside the top seven.
Bet: Mercury +12.5 or better
For all of my WNBA picks, including prop bets and live plays, be sure to follow me on X @TShoeIndex and turn your notifications on to get real-time updates from me on all things WNBA.
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