WNBA Picks
Portland melted down Friday night, blowing the game against the shorthanded Tempo and costing us a bet in the process. We’re back at it Saturday, though, with a three-game slate featuring the New York Liberty hosting the Indiana Fever, the Los Angeles Sparks hosting the Connecticut Sun, and the Phoenix Mercury playing host to the Atlanta Dream. Here are the TSI projections for Saturday, August 22nd.
New York Liberty (-2.5) vs Indiana Fever, O/U 186.5
I’m not sure what to make of New York at the moment; Satou Sabally remains away from the team as she deals with a concussion. They’re 9-3 in their last twelve games but are playing five points below their season average over the last three. Indiana is coming off a loss at Dallas after winning their previous five games and are playing five points below their season average over the last three. This is also the fourth road game in a week for Indiana. TSI projects Liberty -0.5 with a total of 174.5. Indiana’s last three road games have averaged just 178 points while New York’s last three home games have averaged 178, so I’m looking at the Under here. In the last three meetings between these teams at New York dating back to last season, the games have averaged 175 points and have not eclipsed the 185.5 line.
Bet: Under 186.5 (Play to 184.5)
Los Angeles Sparks (-4.5) vs Connecticut Sun, O/U 168.5
This game is about as ugly as it gets in the WNBA. LA has been almost 20 points worse than league average over the last three games, getting outscored 96-78 on average in that span. Connecticut has actually been a point better than their season average over the last three, but that’s still bad. They’re only averaging 74 points per game in their last six, allowing 87 per game in the process. TSI projects Sparks -4 with a total of 171.5, and I want no part of this game because you don’t know which team, if any, has any motivation to play at this point.
Phoenix Mercury (+6.5) vs Atlanta Dream, O/U 177.5
Phoenix has been five points worse than their season average over the last three games and have no hope to make the playoffs at this point after winning just one of their last five games. Atlanta has been a remarkable seventeen points above their season average over the last four games, winning by an average of 102-80 in that span. TSI projects Atlanta -4 with a total of 177, but I do question Phoenix’s motivation here, but this is also Atlanta’s third road game in five days. I’d lean Atlanta here, but I’m not going to make it official.
For all of my WNBA picks, including prop bets and live plays, be sure to follow me on X @TShoeIndex and turn your notifications on to get real-time updates from me on all things WNBA.
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