Today we kick off the weekend with a loaded 15 game MLB slate to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
| Become a VSiN Pro subscriber today and get a full year for just $199 PLUS a copy of The NFL Sharp Betting Playbook by Josh Appelbaum >> Go here and use promo code BOOK to sign up. |
|---|
1:35 p.m. ET: Toronto Blue Jays at New York Yankees (-105, 6.5)
The Yankees (73-55) won last night’s series opener 3-1, cashing as -190 home favorites.
In this early afternoon rematch, the Blue Jays (63-67) start righty Dylan Cease (7-5, 2.42 ERA) and the Yankees turn to lefty Ryan Weathers (5-7, 3.56 ERA).
This line opened with New York listed as a -125 home favorite and Toronto a +110 road dog.
The public is happy to lay the short chalk with the Yankees at home, as the Bronx Bombers are receiving 63% of moneyline bets at DraftKings.
However, despite receiving nearly two-thirds of tickets we’ve seen New York fall from -125 to -105.
This signals sharp reverse line movement on the Blue Jays, as the line has moved in their direction (+110 to -105) despite being the unpopular play. Essentially, smart Blue Jays money has moved this game down to a virtual pick’em.
At DraftKings, Toronto is receiving 37% of moneyline bets and 50% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, the Blue Jays are taking in 40% of moneyline bets and a whopping 91% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a “low bets, higher dollars” sharp contrarian split in favor of the road team, especially the wiseguys in the desert.
Cease is 6-1 with a 1.71 ERA on the road compared to 1-4 with a 3.03 ERA at home.
The Blue Jays are hitting .246 since the All Star Break (13th in MLB) while the Yankees are only hitting .206 (dead last).
6:05 p.m. ET: St. Louis Cardinals at Philadelphia Phillies (-145, 9)
The Phillies (71-58) took last night’s series opener 7-6 in extra innings, cashing as a massive -260 home favorites.
In tonight’s rematch, the Cardinals (66-64) were originally scheduled to sart righty Andre Pallante (12-6, 3.57 ERA). However, Pallante was a late injury scratch and now St. Louis is expected to start lefty Quinn Mathews, who has gone 5-4 with a 3.27 ERA in AAA and 0-1 with a 3.00 ERA in two starts with the Cardinals this season.
On the other hand, the Phillies counter with fellow righty Andrew Painter (2-8, 6.43 ERA).
This line opened with Philadelphia listed as a -130 home favorite and St. Louis a +110 road dog.
Sharps have jumped on the Phillies laying modest chalk at home, especially after the pitching change, steaming Philadelphia up from -130 to -145 with some shops touching as high as -150.
At DraftKings, the Phillies (-1.5 at +140) are receiving 40% of spread bets and 84% of spread dollars, a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” run-line split to win by two runs or more.
Saturday home favorites off a win receiving at least 15-cents of steam in their favor facing an opponent who missed the playoffs the previous season, like the Phillies here, are 28-13 (68%) with an 11% ROI this season.
Philadelphia offers betting system value as a non-division favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the “better” team who is expected to win.
The Phillies have the better bats since the All Star Break, hitting .259 (7th in MLB) compared to .240 for the Cardinals (19th).
8:10 p.m. ET: Cincinnati Reds at Arizona Diamondbacks (-170, 8)
The Diamondbacks (68-61) dominated last night’s series opener 9-0, taking care of business as -150 home favorites.
In tonight’s rematch, the Reds (61-68) send out righty Rhett Lowder (4-8, 5.17 ERA) and the Diamondbacks turn to fellow righty Michael Soroka (8-3, 2.93 ERA).
This line opened with Arizona listed as a -155 home favorite and Cincinnati a +135 road dog.
Sharps have laid the wood with the Snakes to earn another victory at home, pushing Arizona up from -155 to -170.
At DraftKings, the Diamondbacks are taking in roughly 80% of moneyline bets and dollars, a one-way Pro and Joe bet split in their favor. The Snakes are also taking in a sharp run-line bet split (-1.5 at +125), receiving 71% of spread bets and 94% of spread dollars at DraftKings.
When the line moves in their favor, the Diamondbacks are 40-28 (59%) with an 8% ROI this season, the 4th best “line move” team in MLB. When favored and receiving line movement in their direction, Arizona has gone 28-15 (65%) with a 12% ROI this season.
When favored at home receiving line movement in their direction against below .500 teams, Arizona is 18-6 (75%) with a 24% ROI, the best in MLB.
Soroka has posted a 1.80 ERA in two August starts, allowing only 2 earned runs in 10 innings pitched. He is 4-2 with a 1.88 ERA at home this season.
On the other hand, Lowder has posted a 4.00 ERA in three August starts, giving up 8 earned runs in 18 innings pitched. He is 2-7 with a 7.23 ERA on the road compared to 2-1 with a 3.35 ERA at home.
The Snakes also have the better bullpen, posting a 4.14 ERA (16th) compared to 4.55 ERA for the Reds (25th).
Arizona 37-27 at home and 43-38 in night games. Conversely, Cincinnati is 29-32 on the road and 35-43 in night games.
