WNBA Picks
Friday night’s trio of games didn’t disappoint, as Atlanta outlasted Dallas and somehow won by 17 after Dallas took a lead late in the second half, Indiana overcame a halftime deficit to beat Golden State (schedule spot!), and Seattle held Connecticut to just 59 points in an 18-point win. Another tripleheader is on deck Saturday in the W, with Minnesota heading to Chicago, Toronto hosting Portland in a battle of expansion teams, and the Sparks look to slow down the freight train that is the Aces in Las Vegas. I don’t have any weird scheduling spots circled for today, so it’ll be all TSI today. Let’s get to Saturday’s projections.
Chicago Sky (+2.5) vs Minnesota Lynx, O/U 166.5
Chicago is 3-2 and lost by 10 to Dallas in its last outing, the first game since Rickea Jackson was lost for the season with an ACL tear. Minnesota is also 3-2 and destroyed Toronto in a bad scheduling spot for the tempo in its last game. Minnesota ranks #3 in TSI offensive rating and #5 in TSI defense, while Chicago is 9th and 4th, respectively. TSI projects Minnesota -8 with a total of 170.5, as the market continues to undervalue the Lynx, relative to TSI. I see no reason not to back the Lynx here.
Bet: Lynx -2.5 (Play to -5)
Toronto Tempo (-5.5) vs Portland Fire, O/U 175
Toronto got just a day off after playing four road games in a week, and they got punished by Minnesota on the last stop of that trip. Portland is on the second game of a three-game road trip and will take on the Liberty Monday. The Tempo are 11th on both ends of the court, per TSI, while Portland is 12th on offense and 14th on defense. TSI projects right on the market: Tempo -5.5 with a total of 175, so nothing to play here.
Las Vegas Aces (-8.5) vs LA Sparks, O/U 182
Since losing their opener, the Aces have won four straight games by an average of 97-81. LA finally has won two of three after losing its first two games of the season and is starting to find a role for Cameron Brink off the bench. Despite the gaudy scores, Vegas ranks just 7th in TSI offense and 10th on defense. LA is 5th on offense and dead last on defense. TSI projects Vegas -1.5 with a total of 179, so I’m clearly backing LA here on the road, as home favorites of 7.5+ this season are just 1-6 ATS.
Bet: Sparks +8.5 (Play to +6.5)
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