WNBA Picks
As expected, we had two really entertaining games on Saturday, plus the snoozefest that was Golden State vs. Washington that totaled just 143 points. Sunday, we’ve got another three games on the slate, featuring the Dallas Wings vs. the LA Sparks, the Atlanta Dream hosting the Chicago Sky, and the Phoenix Mercury and Connecticut Sun rematching in Phoenix. Here are the TSI projections for Sunday’s games, tipping off at 1 p.m. ET.
Dallas Wings (-10.5) vs. LA Sparks, O/U 183.5
Dallas is playing two points better than its season average over the last three games and has won five straight games by an average of nine points per game. LA is playing about three points below its season average lately and are playing their fourth road game in a week today at 1 p.m. ET, which is 10 a.m. body clock time. TSI projects Dallas -7 with a total of 179.5, and the regression numbers point to LA and the Over, so I’m going to pass on the side, but I will only make LA a lean due to the schedule spot for them, plus they’ve been three points worse on the road this year.
Atlanta Dream (-11.5) vs. Chicago Sky, O/U 180.5
Atlanta has essentially returned to their performance baseline after a pretty big dip a week ago, but Chicago is still outplaying its season average by 4.5 points over the last three games. Atlanta has been three points better at home, while Chicago is an atrocious nine points worse on the road this season. TSI projects Atlanta -11 with a total of 176, but I’m reluctant to play an Under here because Atlanta home games have averaged 4.5 more combined points than their road games, and these teams have averaged a combined 190 over their last three games, and I’m learning with totals that the regression data is perhaps best used as riding the trend rather than fading it. It would be Atlanta or nothing for me in this game, and the number is too high at this point to make them a play.
Phoenix Mercury (-4) vs. Connecticut Sun, O/U 166.5
Connecticut just won outright as 4.5-point dogs against Phoenix earlier this week, and the regression data just keeps shrugging, as the bubble appears to be primed to pop any game now for both these teams, as Phoenix has been 17 (!!) points worse than their season average over the last three games and Connecticut has been four points better than theirs. The good news for Phoenix is that the Sun have been 4.5 points worse on the road; the bad news is that the Mercury themselves have been four points worse at home. TSI projects Phoenix -8.5 with a total of 166.5, so let’s prepare to get hurt again and back the Mercury at home in hopes that the regression bubble finally pops here.
Bet: Mercury -4 (Play to -5)
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