Today the weekend wraps up with a loaded 16 MLB slate to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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3:10 p.m. ET: Cincinnati Reds (-165, 11) at Colorado Rockies
This is the rubber match of a three-game series.
The Reds (44-53) won the opener 7-2, coming through as -105 road dogs. Then the Rockies (40-60) clawed back with a 10-3 win yesterday, cashing as -105 home dogs.
In this afternoon’s series finale, the Reds tap righty Hunter Greene (1-1, 6.97 ERA) and the Rockies turn to fellow righty Ryan Feltner (3-3, 4.55 ERA).
This line opened with Cincinnati listed as a -135 road favorite and Colorado a +115 home dog.
Sharps have gotten down hard on the Reds, steaming Cincinnati up from -135 to -165.
At DraftKings, the Reds are taking in 82% of moneyline bets and 93% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, Cincinnati is only receiving 40% of moneyline bets but a whopping 99% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split in favor of the road chalk, especially the wiseguys in the desert.
Sunday road favorites facing a below .500 team, like the Reds here, are 25-16 (61%) with a 6% ROI this season.
Sunday road teams receiving steam 10-cents or more in their favor are 25-17 (60%) with a 10% ROI this season.
Greene is making his 3rd start of the season. After getting lit up for 8 earned runs in 3.1 innings in an 8-5 loss to the Orioles in his debut, he bounced back in his second start, going 7 innings allowing zero earned runs and striking out 12 in a 4-0 win over the Cubs.
Meanwhile, Feltner has posted a 5.23 ERA in two July starts, giving up 6 earned runs in 10.1 innings pitched. He has posted a 6.57 ERA during the day compared to 4.06 at night.
4:05 p.m. ET: Washington Nationals (-140, 10.5) at Athletics
This is the rubber match of a three-game Interleague series.
The Nationals (49-50) dominated the opener 23-4, cruising as -135 road favorites. Then the Athletics (42-56) bounced back with a 15-1 win yesterday, cashing as -105 home dogs.
In this afternoon’s series finale, the Nationals hand the ball to lefty Foster Griffin (10-2, 2.77 ERA) and the Athletics go with fellow southpaw Jacob Lopez (4-3, 6.83 ERA).
This line opened with Washington listed as a -130 road favorite and the Athletics a +110 home dog.
Sharps have pounced on the Nats laying modest chalk to earn a win and take the series, driving Washington up from -130 to -140.
At DraftKings, the Nationals are receiving 81% of moneyline bets and a hefty 97% of moneyline dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” one-way Pro and Joe bet split in their favor.
Favorites coming off a 12-run loss or more who missed the playoffs the previous season, like the Nats here, are 110-70 (61%) with a 9% ROI since 2005.
Sunday road favorites facing a below .500 team are 25-16 (61%) with a 6% ROI this season.
The Nationals are 26-23 (53%) with a 16% ROI off a loss this season, the second best bounce back team in MLB.
Washington has the better bats, hitting .251 with 540 runs scored compared to the Athletics hitting .245 with 441 runs scored. The Nationals are hitting .271 against lefties, the best in MLB.
Griffin has posted a 1.15 ERA in two July starts, allowing only 2 earned runs in 12 innings pitched. Washington is 16-4 in his twenty starts this season.
Meanwhile, Lopez has posted a 7.71 ERA in two July starts, giving up 4 earned runs in 4.2 innings pitched. He is 0-2 with an 8.31 ERA at home.
Washington is 29-19 on the road, 3rd best in MLB. The Athletics are 16-27 at home, the worst in MLB.
4:07 p.m. ET: Detroit Tigers (-155, 9.5) at Los Angeles Angels
The Tigers (46-52) have taken the first two games of this three-game series, winning the opener 2-1 as -120 road favorites and then winning again yesterday 7-0 as -220 road favorites.
In this afternoon’s series finale, the Tigers send out righty Casey Mize (4-6, 2.79 ERA) and the Angels (38-61) start fellow righty Ryan Johnson (1-4, 6.75 ERA).
This line opened with Detroit listed as a -150 road favorite and Los Angeles a +130 home dog.
Sharps have quietly laid the wood with the Tigers to complete the sweep, pushing Detroit up from -150 to -155 or even -160 across the market.
At DraftKings, the Tigers are taking in 90% of moneyline bets and 97% of moneyline dollars, a one-way “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split in their favor.
Sunday road favorites facing a below .500 team, like the Tigers here, are 25-16 (61%) with a 6% ROI this season.
Non-division road favorites off a win receiving line movement in their favor are 72-42 (63%) with an 8% ROI this season.
Mize has posted a 2.43 ERA during the day compared to 3.02 at night.
Meanwhile, the Angels are 1-8 in Johnson’s nine appearances this season.
Detroit has the edge in the bullpen, sporting an ERA of 3.83 (10th) compared to 4.58 for Los Angeles (24th).
The Tigers are 24-14 (.632) since June 1st, the second best record in MLB.
