WNBA Picks
We couldn’t have asked for a better start to the WNBA season, going 5-1 in the first two days and definitely looking to keep the momentum rolling on this Mother’s Day. We’ve got a four-pack of games today, starting off with the Connecticut Sun hosting the Seattle Storm, the Washington Mystics taking on the New York Liberty, the LA Sparks debuting against the Las Vegas Aces, and the Golden State Valkyries hosting the Phoenix Mercury. Here are the T Shoe Index projections for Sunday’s games:
Connecticut Sun (+1.5) vs Seattle Storm, O/U 165.5
Connecticut faced the Liberty on Friday night, and despite a massive line move in their favor, got pulverized by the uber-talented Liberty squad. Now, they’ll take a less daunting but still formidable foe in the Seattle Storm, who are 1.5-point favorites on the road with a young and hungry roster. TSI projects Seattle -.5 with a total of 160.5. I’m passing on this game, because what we saw in each team’s first game from a pace + efficiency standpoint didn’t quite align with what TSI has cooking for them, so despite showing value on the Under I need to collect another data point before feeling great about the handle on these re-built teams.
Washington Mystics (+5.5) vs New York Liberty, O/U 165
As I mentioned, there was a huge line movement against the Liberty and towards the Sun Friday night, moving 8 points but ultimately backfiring because the Liberty destroyed Connecticut. Washington is much better than the Sun, but I still think 5.5 is too short here even though Sabrina Ionescu is out for New York. TSI projects Liberty -8.5 with a total of 160. I’m going to lay the points here with Breanna Stewart and the Liberty.
Bet: Liberty -5.5 (play to -7)
LA Sparks (+2.5) vs Las Vegas Aces, O/U 176.5
The defending champs looked anything but champion-like on ring ceremony night Saturday, getting throttled by the Phoenix Suns, whom they swept in the 2025 Finals. They now take on the reloaded Sparks and a healthy Cameron Brink, eager to make her presence felt after missing most of last season. I was thoroughly unimpressed with Vegas Saturday, and we know Kelsey Plum will be eager to take down her old team. TSI projects Vegas -1.5 with a total of 170, so I’m going to take the Sparks and the Under here.
Bets: Sparks +2.5 (Play to +2), Under 176.5 (Play to 175)
Golden State Valkyries (-2) vs Phoenix Mercury, O/U 157.5
On the other end of Vegas looking awful was the Mercury playing way better than expected, thanks to Jovana Nogic putting on a clinic with 19 points and 4 assists to lead the Mercury alongside Alyssa Thomas’s 20/6/9. Golden State is a solid team, but I think we’ll look back in a few weeks at this line and wonder how the Mercury were so undervalued. TSI projects Golden State -1.5 with a total of 167. Despite the close line, I’m going to back Phoenix after what I saw yesterday, and I definitely feel comfortable with the Over here.
Bets: Mercury +2 or better, Over 157.5 (Play to 160)
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