Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Sunday, May 10, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Trend: Luis Severino’s teams are 32-15 (+14.85 units) when he starts against opponents with a losing record in the last 3+ seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): ATHLETICS (-112 at BAL)
MLB Series Betting System #5: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a very good investment in the final game of a series if ending a road trip, going 370-407 but for +95.56 units and an ROI of 12.3% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MINNESOTA (+139 at CLE), HOUSTON (+102 at CIN), ATLANTA (+113 at LAD)
*CHECK OUT FIRST BULLPEN SYSTEM BELOW*
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 regular season, I found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating AND starting pitcher rating have gone 207-139 for +48.41 units, and an ROI of +14.0%! The two-year record on this angle is now 396-266 for +83.41 units and an ROI of 12.6%. This has proven to be a very good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically. It should be a part of your handicapping routine going forward. For 2026, these teams are off to a modest 75-54 start for +1.88 units and an ROI of +1.5%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MIAMI (-136 vs WSH), TEXAS (-131 vs CHC)
STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse wound up 184-226 for -38.36 units for the season when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -9.4%. This is another angle that shows that good bullpens are better support for good starting pitching. This is another go against angle that does well. To start the 2026 season, these teams are again struggling, 22-32 for -13.01 units and an ROI of -24.1%!
System Matches (FADE ALL): TORONTO (-110 vs LAA), SAN DIEGO (-136 vs STL)
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more went 352-210 for +30.55 units, when not matched against the same in the 2025 season. This represents an ROI of +5.4%. For 2026, these teams are off to a slow 78-55 start for -3.40 units and an ROI of -2.6%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON (-136 vs TB), CLEVELAND (-168 vs MIN), SEATTLE (-136 at CWS), NY YANKEES (-120 at MIL), TEXAS (-131 vs CHC)
Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse went 148-267 for -34.71 units when not matched up against the same in 2025. This represented an ROI of -8.4%, another solid fade angle! For 2026, they are off to a rare positive start, 39-50 for +7.00 units.
System Match (FADE): HOUSTON (+102 at CIN)
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In the last three regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 427-241 record, but for -131.5 units. This has been an ROI of -19.7%! The 2025 record was 120-59 for -13.28 units. The 2026 record so far is 18-9 for -2.96 units. Over the last three-and-a-half weeks, this angle has lost -8.34 units and is trending normally again.
System Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (-308 vs COL)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick em’). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%! The 2026 season is off to a rocky start, 74-93 for -11.41 units.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): TAMPA BAY (+113 at BOS), TORONTO (-110 vs LAA), MILWAUKEE (+100 vs NYY), NY METS (-105 at AZ), DETROIT (+109 at KC)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. In the 2023-2025 regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 648-696 for -59.7 units, an ROI of -4.4%. For 2026, they are off to a 43-53 start for -3.60 units.
System Match (FADE): KANSAS CITY (-131 vs DET)
Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
Around midseason of 2025, I went back and found that teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games had proven to be a nice fade system. For the full 2025 campaign, they wound up 195-269 for -29.1 units, an ROI of -6.3%. We will continue to track this angle in 2026, and it is now 40-49 for -3.63 units.
System Match (FADE): BALTIMORE (-108 vs ATH)
MLB Series Systems
The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025, regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.
MLB Series Betting System #2: Teams wrapping up a series and riding at least a 3-game losing streak are 426-449 but for +29.22 units and an ROI of 3.3% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BALTIMORE (-108 vs ATH), DETROIT (+109 at KC)
MLB Series Betting System #5: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a very good investment in the final game of a series if ending a road trip, going 370-407 but for +95.56 units and an ROI of 12.3% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MINNESOTA (+139 at CLE), HOUSTON (+102 at CIN), ATLANTA (+113 at LAD)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing betting systems for teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 2043-1936 (51.3%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -268.52 units. This represents an ROI of -6.7%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TORONTO, PHILADELPHIA, PITTSBURGH
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 2049-2622 (43.9%) for -273.05 units and an ROI of -5.8% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TAMPA BAY, LA ANGELS, HOUSTON, MINNESOTA, CHICAGO CUBS, DETROIT, SEATTLE, NY METS, ST LOUIS
Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 4144-3594 (53.6%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -512.18 units and an ROI of -6.6%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TORONTO, MIAMI, PHILADELPHIA, TEXAS, KANSAS CITY, CHICAGO WHITE SOX
Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra-base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 619-510 (54.8%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +30.07 units, for an ROI of 2.7%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND (-168 vs MIN), CINCINNATI (-122 vs HOU)
Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 336-301 (52.7%) for +20.10 units and an ROI of 3.2% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Match (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (-115 vs PIT)
MLB Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios.
MLB Team Strength Betting System #1:
MLB road favorites of -115 or more and winning <= 0.38% of their games have gone 75-43 SU for +16.53 units (ROI: 14%) since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): NONE YET BUT WATCH FOR LA ANGELS at TOR (-110 CURRENTLY)
MLB Team Strength Betting System #4:
Early season (March/April/May) road underdogs between +100 and +160 coming off a loss have gone 501-574 SU but for +68.62 units (ROI: 6.4%) since the start of the 2021 season (including 169-187 SU for +33.23 units in the last 356 divisional games).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TAMPA BAY (+113 at BOS), CHICAGO CUBS (+109 at TEX), WASHINGTON (+113 at MIA), HOUSTON (+102 at CIN), ST LOUIS (+113 at SD), DETROIT (+109 at KC)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays detail different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #7:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 289-301 run (+10.24 units, ROI: 1.7%).
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): DETROIT (+109 at KC)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: COLORADO +244 (+45 diff), TORONTO -110 (+15)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: LA DODGERS -136 (+31 diff), ARIZONA -115 (+25), MIAMI -136 (+17), SEATTLE -136 (+17), CINCINNATI -122 (+17)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: MIN-CLE OVER 7.5 (+0.5), DET-KC OVER 8 (+0.5)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: ATH-BAL UNDER 10 (-1.4), COL-PHI UNDER 8.5 (-0.7), ATL-LAD UNDER 9 (-0.5)
Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB Betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.
(951) WASHINGTON (19-21) at (952) MIAMI (18-22)
Trend: WSH is 16-5 (+10.11 units) on the run line in road games this season
Trend Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (+1.5 at MIA)
(953) COLORADO (16-24) at (954) PHILADELPHIA (18-22)
Trend: PHI is 25-2 (+21.13 units) at home against teams with a <= 0.560 win pct with starter Cristopher Sanchez since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-308 vs COL)
(957) ST LOUIS (23-16) at (958) SAN DIEGO (23-16)
Trend: STL is 19-13 (+10.19 units) as a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY): ST LOUIS (+113 at SD)
Trend: Walker Buehler’s teams are 10-11 (-4.56 units) when he starts as a short favorite (in line range -120 to -145) since 2019
Trend Match (FADE): SAN DIEGO (-136 vs STL)
(959) NEW YORK-NL (15-24) at (960) ARIZONA (18-20)
Trend: Under the total is 14-6-1 (+7.40 units) in NYM road games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): NYM-AZ (o/u at 8.5)
(963) ATHLETICS (21-18) at (964) BALTIMORE (17-23)
Trend: Over the total is 14-6 (+7.40 units) in BAL day games this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): ATH-BAL (o/u at 10)
Trend: Luis Severino’s teams are 32-15 (+14.85 units) when he starts against opponents with a losing record in the last 3+ seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): ATHLETICS (-112 at BAL)
(965) TAMPA BAY (25-13) at (966) BOSTON (17-22)
Trend: TB is 9-2 (+7.72 units) vs LH starters this season
Trend Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (+113 at BOS)
(975) HOUSTON (16-24) at (976) CINCINNATI (21-19)
Trend: Over the total is 12-4 (+7.60 units) when CIN is a ML favorite this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): HOU-CIN (o/u at 8.5)
(977) NEW YORK-AL (26-14) at (978) MILWAUKEE (21-16)
Trend: Carlos Rodon’s teams are 6-15 (-17.50 units) in his last 21 road starts vs NL opponents
Trend Match (FADE): NY YANKEES (-120 at MIL)
(979) CHICAGO-NL (27-13) at (980) TEXAS (18-21)
Trend: Over the total is 10-5-2 (+4.55 units) in CHC road games this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): CHC-TEX (o/u at 8)
Top Head-to-Head Series Trends
Series #2: LA Angels at Toronto, Fri 5/8-Sun 5/10
Trend: Home teams are 18-24 (42.9%, -12.85 units) in the last 42 games between the Los Angeles Angels and Toronto Blue Jays
– The ROI on this trend is -30.6%.
Trend Match (FADE): TORONTO (-110 vs LAA)
Series #4: Arizona at NY Mets, Fri 5/8-Sun 5/10
Trend: NY METS are 28-13 (68.3%, +12.28 units) in L41 games vs Arizona Diamondbacks
– The ROI on this trend is 30%.
Trend Match (PLAY): NY METS (-105 at AZ)
Series #14: St Louis at San Diego, Thu 5/7-Sun 5/10
Trend: Home teams are 21-11 (65.6%, +6.46 units) in the last 32 games between San Diego and St Louis
– The ROI on this trend is 20.2%
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN DIEGO (-136 vs STL)
Series #32: Minnesota at Cleveland, Fri 5/8-Sun 5/10
Trend: CLEVELAND has dominated Minnesota in recent seasons of head-to-head play, going 37-15 (71.2%, +23.41 units)
– The ROI on this trend is 45%
Trend Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-168 vs MIN)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8.5% 3-year returns on all side majorities, and -3.4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of the 2023 season, this “super” majority group has fared quite well, going 282-127 (68.9%) for +27.68 units and an ROI of +6.8%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by over 15%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND
DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Similarly to #2, Majority handle groups have been steady when not too many of them hop on an underdog side since the beginning of the 2024 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 51-66%. These groups have gone 289-312 (48.1%) for a very minimal -1.8 units loss and an ROI of -0.3%. This represents an improvement of 8.2% on the overall numbers, and gives bettors a chance to stay afloat when they go against the grain.
System Matches (CONSIDER ALL): BALTIMORE, TAMPA BAY, CHICAGO WHITE SOX, ST LOUIS
DK MLB Betting Splits system #4: Majority handle bettors have been sound over the last three seasons when getting behind huge home favorites of -250 or higher. This group is 300-89 (77.1%) for +40 units and an ROI of 10.3%. This is a nice rate of return and a tremendous winning percentage, but with prices like this, things can turn fast so consider the risk when backing.
System Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 1074-957 (52.9%) but for -215.64 units and an ROI of -10.6%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return on a huge sample of games and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CINCINNATI, NY YANKEES, CHICAGO CUBS
DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 360-329 (52.2%) for -118.41 units and an atrocious ROI of -17.2%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MIAMI, LA DODGERS
DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: Over the last season-and-a-half, the average posted total in MLB games has been just about 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (nine or higher), majority bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 356-320 (52.6%) since the start of the 2023 season for +26.1 units and an ROI of +3.9%. This is again another rare positive spot for a high volume of games, and of course, is built on the foundation of going against the grain.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): ATL-LAD
Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities
NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next one Tuesday, May 12)
