Today the weekend wraps up with a loaded 16 game MLB slate to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups of using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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1:35 p.m. ET: Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees (-135, 7.5)
The Rays (34-15) won the series opener 4-2, coming through as +125 road dogs. Then yesterday’s rematch was postponed due to rain.
In this early afternoon series finale, the Rays tap righty Drew Rasmussen (4-1, 3.19 ERA) and the Yankees (30-22) go with lefty Ryan Weathers (2-2, 3.58 ERA).
This line opened with New York listed as a -140 home favorite and Tampa Bay a +120 road dog.
Sharps have jumped on the plus money Rays, dropping the line away from New York (-140 to -135) and toward Tampa Bay (+120 to +115).
At DraftKings, the Rays are taking in only 41% of moneyline bets but 73% of moneyline dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp contrarian split in their favor.
At Circa, Tampa Bay is receiving 78% of moneyline bets and a hefty 82% of moneyline dollars, indicating heavy one-way support from the Vegas sharps.
Tampa Bay has betting system value as a divisional dog, with the built in familiarity leveling the playing field and leading to more upset oppotunities.
The Rays are 6-1 in Rasmussen’s last seven starts.
Meanwhile, Weathers has posted a 3.93 ERA at home compared to 2.81 on the road.
Tampa Bay is 25-8 (76%) off a win, the best record in MLB.
4:05 p.m. ET: Chicago White Sox at San Francisco Giants (-115, 8)
This is the rubber match of a three-game Interleague series.
The White Sox (26-25) took the opener 9-4, taking care of business as -120 road favorites. Then the Giants (21-31) bounced back with a 10-3 win yesterday, cashing as -115 home favorites.
In this afternoon’s series finale, the White Sox hand the ball to lefty Noah Schultz (2-3, 4.93 ERA) and the Giants turn to fellow southpaw Robbie Ray (3-6, 4.28 ERA).
This line opened at roughly a pick’em, with both sides listed around -110 odds.
Sharps have quietly sided with the Giants at home, pushing San Francisco up from -110 to -115, with some shops inching up to -120.
At Circa, San Francisco is receiving 50% of monyeline bets and a whopping 96% of moneyline dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy in their favor from the Vegas sharps.
The Giants offer betting system and correlative betting value as an Interleague favorite in a low total game (8), with the lack of familiarity and fewer amount of expected runs scored historically benefiting the better team expected to win.
The Giants are hitting .246 against lefties this season (7th best in MLB) while the White Sox are hitting .234 (23rd).
Schultz has posted a 6.05 ERA in four May starts, allowing 13 earned runs in 19.1 innings pitched.
Meanwhile, Ray is 3-1 with a 1.91 ERA at home this season.
4:10 p.m. ET: Washington Nationals at Atlanta Braves (-165, 8.5)
This is the rubber match of a three-game series.
The Braves (36-17) won the opener 5-4 in extra innings, cashing as -190 home favorites. Then the Nationals (26-27) bounced back with a 2-0 win, coming through as a +140 road dog.
In this afternoon’s series finale, the Nationals send out lefty Foster Griffin (5-2, 4.02 ERA) and the Braves counter with fellow southpaw Martin Perez (2-2, 2.85 ERA).
This line opened with Atlanta listed as a -160 home favorite and Washington a +140 road dog.
Sharps have laid the wood with the Braves to earn a win and take the series, driving Atlanta up from -160 to -165, with some shops touching -170.
At DraftKings, the Braves are receiving 86% of moneyline bets and 87% of moneyline dollars, a one-way “low bets, higher dollars” Pro and Joe bet split in their favor.
Griffin has posted a 6.04 ERA in four May starts, giving up 15 earned runs in 22.1 innings pitched. He has posted a 4.24 ERA on the road compared to 3.68 at home.
Meanwhile, Perez has posted a 0.55 ERA at home compared to 4.38 on the road.
The Braves have the better bullpen, sporting an team ERA of 3.08 (5th best in MLB) compared to 4.79 for the Nationals (6th worst).
Atlanta is 17-9 at home, the 2nd best home record in MLB.
The Braves are also 13-3 (81%) off a loss, the best record in MLB.
