WNBA Picks
We cashed our lone play of Wednesday night, as the Mystics hung on to cover the -10.5 against the Tempo at home. Thursday’s slate has three games, featuring the Dallas Wings hosting the Indiana Fever, the Las Vegas Aces hosting the Connecticut Sun, and the Los Angeles Sparks hosting the Atlanta Dream. Here are the TSI projections for Thursday, August 20th.
Dallas Wings (+3.5) vs Indiana Fever, O/U 185.5
It was announced Wednesday that Dallas will be without #1 overall pick, Azzi Fudd, for the remainder of the season. The consequences of that could be dire for Dallas, as they’ve been 8.5 points worse than their season average in the last five games that Fudd has missed. Indiana has been just a hair below their season average over the last three games, but have been four points worse in their last three road contests. TSI projects Indiana -5 with a total of 176.5, and while there seems to be value on the Under, these teams have actually combined to be about 4.5 points above expectation in their last five games – based on opponents’ averages – so I’m going to stick to the side here and fade Dallas, who seems pretty lost with Fudd out.
Bet: Indiana Fever -3.5 (Play to -4.5)
Las Vegas Aces (-14.5) vs Connecticut Sun, O/U 166.5
Here are two teams trending the wrong way; Vegas has been 5.5 points below its season average over the last three games, while Connecticut has been three points below its season average in that span. The Sun are only averaging 73 points per game in their last five, while the Aces have allowed 90.5 points per game in their last five. TSI projects Vegas -13.5 with a total of 168, so not much value here on the surface, and I don’t particularly see anything swaying me as I dig deeper, so I’m going to pass on this game.
Los Angeles Sparks (+8.5) vs Atlanta Dream, O/U 178.5
The recent trends definitely point to Atlanta in this one, as LA has played 2.5 points below its season average over the last three games, while Atlanta has been 10.5 points better than its season average over the last three. Atlanta has an average score of 97-82 in its last four games, losing only an OT battle with the Fever in that span. TSI projects Atlanta -7.5 with a total of 169, and the recent home/road splits point heavily to Atlanta while providing some data that contradicts TSI on the total. I think the TSI projection is close enough here that the peripheral formulas are enough to put me on the Dream here.
Bet: Atlanta Dream -8.5 or better
For all of my WNBA picks, including prop bets and live plays, be sure to follow me on X @TShoeIndex and turn your notifications on to get real-time updates from me on all things WNBA.
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