WNBA Picks
Well, we’ve certainly had better nights in the W than we did last night. 0-2 on the night as the Lynx just completely no-showed at home against the Valkyries and the Dream came up just short of covering the number against LA. Tuesday has a three-game slate for us to get back on track, featuring the Connecticut Sun hosting the Chicago Sky, the Dallas Wings hosting the Portland Fire, and the Phoenix Mercury hosting the Washington Mystics. Here are the TSI projections for Tuesday, August 25th.
Connecticut Sun (+5.5) vs Chicago Sky, O/U 168.5
Connecticut is not a good team, but they’ve been even worse than their usual bottom-dwelling selves lately, playing four points worse than their season average over the last five games. Chicago has been 2.5 points below its season average over the last five as well, so this is a game of two teams ready for their seasons to end. TSI projects Sun -2.5 with a total of 165.5, and given there’s a 13-point home/road split here with these teams, I’m going to back Connecticut at home, where six of their nine wins have come this season, and they’ve played 6.5 points better than on the road.
Bet: Sun +5.5 or better
Dallas Wings (-8.5) vs Portland Fire, O/U 175.5
Dallas finally figured out how to play without Azzi Fudd in the lineup, destroying Seattle in its last game, and they’re now playing 3.5 points better than their season average over the last three games. They’ve been a totally different team at home, playing 5.5 points better at home than on the road this year. Portland is playing a point better than its season average over the last three games, and they’ve played surprisingly well on the road, especially lately. TSI projects Dallas -3.5 with a total of 170.5, and I do like the Under here. In these teams’ last three games in their respective home/road roles, the total has gone about 3.5 points below expectation on average, relative to expected outputs. Wings home games have averaged just 167 in August, and Portland’s road games have averaged 167 in August as well.
Bet: Under 175.5 (Play to 173.5)
Phoenix Mercury (+2.5) vs Washington Mystics, O/U 166.5
Who really knows what to expect from Phoenix at this point, as Kelsey Plum is no longer on the injury report, but DeWanna Bonner has been bought out and is no longer with the team, so I’m not sure how much their data means with the moving parts of the lineup. Washington has been pretty bad on the road, relative to their home performances, so this is normally a spot I’d look to fade them, but the uncertainty with Phoenix makes me want to stay away from this game altogether. TSI projects Mercury -1 with a total of 175, but I’m going to pass on trying to grasp the Mercury here.
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