WNBA Picks
We cashed our lone bet of the night on Monday, as Phoenix kept it within the number on the road at Minnesota in a 104-100 loss. We’ll look to build on that today with a two-game slate Tuesday, featuring the Portland Fire visiting the Connecticut Sun and the Toronto Tempo hosting the Washington Mystics. Here are the TSI projections for Tuesday night.
Connecticut Sun (+1.5) vs Portland Fire, O/U 168.5
This line has bounced around from +/- 1.5 either way, which aligns with the TSI projection that I’ll get to in a second. Connecticut has the “due for regression” advantage in this game, as Portland has outperformed its season average by 12 points over the last three games. Connecticut has also outperformed its season average over the last three, but by a much more modest five points. Connecticut is six points better at home and Portland is three points worse on the road, so all signs point to Connecticut. TSI agrees at this number, projecting a pick ‘em with a total of 168.5. I love Connecticut here, even though Brittney Griner is questionable.
Bet: Sun +1.5 (play to +1)
Toronto Tempo (+2) vs Washington Mystics, O/U 172.5
This line is moving towards Washington after opening Toronto -1.5, but that might be due to Washington being three points better lately than its season average and Toronto being two points worse than its season average, indicating Toronto is the potential beneficiary of regression in this game. Toronto has been slightly better at home, but Washington has been 3.5 (opponent-adjusted) points worse on the road this season, scoring four points fewer and allowing three points more per game on the road. TSI projects Toronto -1.5 with a total of 168.5 in this game, so I like Toronto here. The Under would be a lean, but these teams are due about three points of regression to the Over, so I’m going to pass on the total.
Bet: Tempo +2 (Play to pick ‘em)
For all of my WNBA picks, including prop bets and live plays, be sure to follow me on X @TShoeIndex and turn your notifications on to get real-time updates from me on all things WNBA.
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