WNBA Picks
All-Star break is over, and we are officially back for the second half of the WNBA season. Tuesday’s slate has five games, featuring the Mystics hosting the Sun, the Lynx hosting the Tempo, the Fever visiting the Storm, the Liberty traveling to Los Angeles, and Las Vegas playing host to the Fire. Here are the TSI projections for all five games.
Washington Mystics (-6.5) vs Connecticut Sun, O/U 157.5
Washington won back-to-back games before the break, and has been nine points better than its season average over the last three. Connecticut was thirteen points below its season average in its final two games before the break, so the Sun definitely have the regression potential on their side. TSI projects Washington -8 with a total of 158, so I’m going to pass on this game due to the conflicting numbers.
Minnesota Lynx (-14.5) vs Toronto Tempo, O/U 184.5
Minnesota has been 4.5 points below its season average over the last three games, but did get Napheesa Collier back into the lineup for a game before the break. She had a double-double, so she looked to be healthy and ready to get back to her dominant ways. Toronto was 12.5 points below their season average in three games before the break, so they’re definitely due for some serious regression soon. TSI projects Minnesota -15.5 with a total of 183. I kind of want to wait and see what Minnesota is now going to look like at full strength, and the data doesn’t really have me rushing to bet anything in this game, so I’ll pass for now.
Seattle Storm (+9.5) vs Indiana Fever, O/U 184.5
Seattle came into the break with some good momentum, playing eight points above their season average over the last three games, but Indiana also closed out the first half of the season nicely, playing 15 points above their average. TSI projects Indiana -7 with a total of 176 in this game. Given that Seattle is nine points better at home, Indiana is five points worse on the road, plus the regression would be on Seattle’s side here, I’m going to back the Storm at home.
Bet: Storm +9.5 (Play to +8)
LA Sparks (+4.5) vs New York Liberty, O/U 183.5
LA limped into the all-star break playing five points worse than their season average, while New York was even worse, playing seven points below their season average. TSI projects New York -4 with a total of 179.5, though the regression numbers favor New York. I’m going to take a chance on the Under here, as even the regression-adjusted total projection is just 180, and the LA offense is only averaging 82 points per game in their last four games.
Bet: Under 183.5 (Play to 182.5)
Las Vegas Aces (-11.5) vs Portland Fire, O/U 178.5
Vegas was another team crawling into the break, playing 8.5 points worse than their season average. Portland was playing some of its best ball, 8.5 points better than its season average but did just lose Sarah Ashlee Barker for the season to an ACL injury. TSI projects Vegas -15.5 with a total of 176, and the regression numbers certainly support a Vegas play here, so I’m going to back A’ja Wilson and company here.
Bet: Aces -11.5 (play to -13)
For all of my WNBA picks, including prop bets and live plays, be sure to follow me on X @TShoeIndex and turn your notifications on to get real-time updates from me on all things WNBA.
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