WNBA Picks
We cashed our only bet of the night in a single-game slate on Tuesday, with the Valkyries and Tempo going over the total yet again. We’re on a nice little run to start the post-All-Star stretch and hope to continue that tonight with a four-game slate featuring the New York Liberty rematching the Seattle Storm, the Atlanta Dream hosting the new-look Mercury, the Washington Mystics rematching the Dallas Wings, and the Chicago Sky hosting the LA Sparks. Here are the TSI projections for tonight’s games.
New York Liberty (-8.5) vs Seattle Storm, O/U 184.5
These teams just played two days ago, and New York took care of business, covering the 7.5-point spread and winning by 12. New York is playing right at their (underwhelming) season average over the last three games, while Seattle has been three points below its season average over that span. TSI projects Liberty -10.5 with a total of 181.5. These teams have played twice, with the home team winning each time, and a combined average of 182.5 points. Seattle just isn’t the same team on the road, playing eight points worse on the road than they do at home, while the Liberty have been 2.5 points better at home. I still don’t trust the Liberty to cover a big number in back-to-back games, but I do like the Under here, as these teams have combined to be about four points below expectation in their respective home/road splits and three of the last four meetings have gone Under the number. Plus, I don’t trust Seattle’s offense on the road whatsoever, so I think the Under is safer than the side here.
Bet: Under 184.5 (Play to 183.5)
Atlanta Dream (-6) vs Phoenix Mercury, O/U 183.5
Atlanta was thoroughly embarrassed at home by Vegas on Monday, putting them 6.5 points below their season average over the last three games; meanwhile, Phoenix acquired Kelsey Plum, who dazzled in her debut, scoring 20 points in just 20 minutes of play, putting Phoenix four points above their season average over the last three games as they try to make a playoff push. TSI projects Dream -7.5 with a total of 184. I hate that this total has crept up from 179.5 because I loved the Over, and that would still be my lean, but at this number I can’t make it an official play.
Washington Mystics (+3) vs Dallas Wings, O/U 167
Washington won and covered for us in the last meeting between these teams, unsurprisingly so because these are two teams that have been very inconsistent in their home/road splits, with Washington being 1.5 points better at home and Dallas being six points worse on the road. Over the last three games, the Mystics have turned it up and are playing six points above their season average, while Dallas has been a point and a half below theirs. TSI projects Mystics -2 with a total of 164.5, so I’m again going to back Washington and fade Dallas on the road.
Bet: Mystics +3 (Play to pick)
Chicago Sky (-2.5) vs LA Sparks, O/U 188.5
Both teams are outplaying their season averages over the last three games, with Chicago a point better and LA three points better than their season averages. These teams have split the season series, with the home team winning each game and an average total of 183.5. TSI projects Sky -2 with a total of 194.5, and given the disaster that is the LA defense, I’ll never shy away from playing an Over in a Sparks game, with the regression trends pointing to 200+ points possible here.
Bet: Over 188.5 (play to 190)
For all of my WNBA picks, including prop bets and live plays, be sure to follow me on X @TShoeIndex and turn your notifications on to get real-time updates from me on all things WNBA.
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