MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Wednesday, August 5.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and tools from our friends at Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
Our Opta AI MLB Player Prop Projections are also available.
2:10 PM Eastern
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Houston Astros
Blue Jays starting pitcher Jameson Taillon is making his first start for Toronto after an abysmal start to the season with the Chicago Cubs, posting a 5.92 ERA and 6.73 fielding independent with three home runs and 3.2 walks per nine innings. Astros starting pitcher Hunter Brown might be due for regression on his 3.42 ERA. He owns a 4.43 fielding independent with 5.1 walks per nine innings. The team is 10th in scoring with over 4.6 runs per game.
Picks: Astros Moneyline -140 and Over 7.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Astros -155 and Total 8.3
2:20 PM Eastern
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago Cubs
Cubs starting pitcher Shota Imanaga owns a 3.67 ERA this season, but he has been getting banged around recently, allowing 2.3 home runs per nine innings with a 4.66 ERA in his past 13 starts. Dodgers starting pitcher Eric Lauer is posting a 4.50 ERA with a higher 5.87 fielding independent with two home runs and three walks per nine innings with only 5.7 strikeouts per nine innings. He is supported by a lineup that leads the league in road scoring with nearly 5.8 runs per game.
Pick: Dodgers Moneyline +108
Greg’s Handicap: Dodgers -102
6:40 PM Eastern
New York Mets vs. Cleveland Guardians
Mets starting pitcher Nolan McLean has a 3.29 ERA and 3.47 fielding independent with 10.6 strikeouts and 3.2 walks per nine innings. Guardians starting pitcher Tanner Bibee has a career-low 6.8 strikeouts per nine innings with a 3.81 ERA and 4.50 fielding independent with 1.4 home runs per nine innings allowed. He gets to face a Mets are last in the National League in road scoring with 3.8 runs per game. The Guardians are 12th in bullpen ERA at 3.91 while the Mets are eighth at 3.81, but they traded the majority of their trustworthy relievers at the trade deadline.
Picks: Guardians Moneyline +105 and Under 8.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Guardians -107 and Total 7.6)
7:10 PM Eastern
Chicago White Sox vs. Boston Red Sox
White Sox starting pitcher Sean Burke has a 3.04 ERA with 10.1 strikeouts per nine innings with 0.9 home runs per nine innings. The Red Sox are 27th in scoring at home with 3.9 runs per game, but since the All-Star Break, the team has been second in scoring in the American League with 5.2 runs per game. Red Sox starting pitcher Sonny Gray is getting just 7.8 strikeouts per nine innings, his fewest since 2016. He has a 2.93 ERA with one home run and 2.4 walks per nine innings. The Red Sox are also number one in bullpen ERA at 2.95.
Picks: Red Sox Moneyline -115 and Under 8.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Red Sox -133 and Total 8.1
7:15 PM Eastern
Miami Marlins vs. Atlanta Braves
Marlins starting pitcher Eury Perez has been outstanding of late with only nine earned runs allowed across 52 1/3 innings in his past eight starts. He has very demonstrative career home and road splits with a lifetime 2.75 ERA with less than 0.7 home runs allowed per nine innings at home compared to a lifetime 4.42 road ERA with 1.7 home runs per nine innings allowed. Bryce Elder has a 3.84 ERA with 1.4 home runs and three walks per nine innings allowed.
Pick: Braves Moneyline -122
Greg’s Handicap: Braves -138
9:40 PM Eastern
Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle Mariners
Mariners starting pitcher Bryan Woo has been a completely different pitcher at home than away from home, posting a 2.20 home ERA and a 6.71 ERA away from home. He is due for lots of positivity on his 4.56 ERA, as he has a 3.20 fielding independent with 9.1 strikeouts and 1.9 walks per nine innings. The Tigers are likely to go with a pitcher-by-committee approach, with Drew Anderson getting the start, with the possibility of Ty Madden being in line for some bulk work, posting a 2.40 ERA with 9.9 strikeouts and 3.6 walks per nine innings. Since June 1, the bullpen is fifth in ERA at 3.27.
Pick: Mariners Moneyline -148 (Greg’s Handicap Mariners -192)
San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Diamondbacks starting pitcher Mitch Bratt has not lent a lot of length in his five starts since getting called up from the minor league level, supplying a 5.23 ERA with a 6.77 fielding independent. He has more walks than strikeouts, with 5.2 strikeouts and 6.5 walks per nine innings. Casey Mize makes his first start for the Padres after supplying a 2.70 ERA and 2.58 fielding independent with 0.5 home runs per nine innings allowed. On offense, the Padres are averaging just under 4.6 runs per game away from home compared to 3.8 runs per game at home.
Picks: Padres Moneyline -102 and Under 9.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Padres -134 and Total 8.6
