WNBA Picks
The Connecticut Sun came through for us in the early game yesterday, winning by three as 1.5-point underdogs (at the time we bet them), but Toronto laid an absolute egg and scored just 63 points against the Mystics, who continue to haunt me whether I bet on them or fade them. Wednesday, we’ve got three games ahead featuring the Chicago Sky hosting the Seattle Storm at noon ET, followed by the Minnesota Lynx and LA Sparks at 1 pm ET, then the Indiana Fever host the Golden State Valkyries this evening at 8 pm ET. Here are the TSI projections for today’s games.
Chicago Sky (-2.5) vs. Seattle Storm, O/U 171.5
Chicago has been 1.5 points worse than its season average over the last three games and is just 1-3 in its last four, but they’ve been nine points better at home this season compared to their road performances. Seattle has been 7.5 points better over its last three games compared to its season average, and is 10 points worse on the road than at home. TSI projects Chicago -0.5 with a total of 169 in this game, but the regression numbers are heavily pointing towards Chicago and the Over here. I’m going to play Chicago because I think the combination of regression combined with the home/road splits is enough of a blind spot that TSI hasn’t fully captured what this game may look like.
Bet: Sky -2.5 (Play to -3.5)
Minnesota Lynx (-12.5) vs. LA Sparks, O/U 182.5
Minnesota has been four points below its season average over the last three games, while LA has been 11 points better than its season average over its last three games, indicating we could be in for a classic Lynx blowout here at the expense of LA. The Sparks have also been about two points worse on the road than at home, while Minnesota has been relatively consistent whether at home or on the road. TSI projects Lynx -12.5 with a total of 182, so the pregame numbers look right, but the regression data combined with the home/road splits indicate this is Lynx and Under, so those would be my leans.
Indiana Fever (-2.5) vs. Golden State Valkyries, O/U 168.5
Both teams have been outplaying their season averages lately, with the Fever doing so by two points and the Valkyries by four points. Indiana has won four of its last five games and is 2.5 points better at home than on the road, while Golden State has won seven straight games but is on its fifth road game in 11 days. TSI projects Indiana -2 with a total of 170, and while I don’t really want to touch the side here (lean Indiana due to the spot), I do like the Over, as TSI and the regression numbers really point to the Valkyries’ dam finally bursting, as their last three games have been 14.5 points lower scoring than their season average, so I think this total has gotten a bit deflated.
Bet: Over 168.5 (Play to 169.5)
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