WNBA Picks
It’s still just the first week of the WNBA season, and we’ve already seen the bottom-rated team (Portland) upset the top-rated team (New York – albeit, without two key players). In a league with just 15 teams, some parity is to be expected, but holy cow, that was an exciting upset as 11.5-point underdogs for the Fire. Tonight, we’ve got four more games on deck with the Storm visiting Toronto, Connecticut hosting Las Vegas, Golden State taking on Chicago and LA hosting Caitlin Clark and the Fever. Let’s get to the TSI projections and bets for Wednesday night.
Toronto Tempo (-3.5) vs Seattle Storm, O/U 167.5
Toronto has played just one game, which was a nailbiter against Washington, in which they lost by 3. Seattle is 1-1 and playing the second of three consecutive road games for the young team. TSI projects Toronto -2.5 with a total of 158, so the O/U of 167.5 that has actually climbed is surprising to me. It’s interesting because Seattle is exceeding market-estimated expectations by about 5 points per game on totals, while Toronto underperformed by about 15.5 points relative to expectations in their lone game. Any way I slice the numbers, this total is too high, so I’m playing the Under.
Bet: Under 167.5 (Play to 165)
Connecticut Sun (+14.5) vs Las Vegas Aces, O/U 171.5
The Sun are 0-2 and currently allowing 97 points per game through two contests, while scoring just 78.5. Meanwhile, Vegas had a horrendous showing in its debut against Phoenix before handling LA with ease. TSI projects Aces -12 with a total of 172. This spread keeps climbing, so I’m probably going to reluctantly bet on the Sun at some point, but I’m going to hope for the best number. We’ll call it a lean right now, but this is one the numbers do like already.
Lean: Sun +14.5 or better
Golden State Valkyries (-5.5) vs Chicago Sky, O/U 166.5
The Valkyries have picked right up where they left off a year ago, starting 2-0 in the franchise’s second season. The surprising aspect so far has been the offensive output; this team last year felt like an automatic Under every game, and now they’re suddenly averaging 93 points per game through their first two (small sample, I know.) But the defense is holding well also, allowing just 79.5 points per game. Chicago, who I’ve been critical of from a roster construction standpoint, came out hot against Portland in their opener and put up a whopping 98 points en route to a 15-point W. TSI projects Valkyries -4 with a total of 170, so I’ll again be looking at the total, as I think these teams are capable of putting up huge numbers.
Bet: Over 166.5 (Play to 168)
Los Angeles Sparks (+1.5) vs Indiana Fever, O/U 183.5
LA was extremely disappointing in their opener against Vegas, including the fact that Cameron Brink played just eight minutes in a bizarre move by her head coach. She had three fouls, yes, but you don’t get to take them home with you, so I’m not sure what the strategy was in the second half as they got pummeled by A’ja Wilson and co. Indiana also lost their opener Saturday to Paige Bueckers and the Wings, and my guess is there are a lot of people lining up to bet them at such a short number here over a team that lost by nearly 30 in its opener. However, TSI makes this game a pick ‘em with a total of 189 after the putrid defensive performances both teams displayed in the first game. Let’s add another Over to the card.
Bet: Over 183.5 (Play to 185)
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