MLB Best Bets Today May 13
Day games in Baltimore and Cleveland serve as outliers today, as we have 15 games on the slate and those are the only two matinees. The rest of the games start at 6:40 p.m. ET or later, as we’ll get seven getaway day games on Thursday to go with four night games. Nearly every game looks to have a green light from a weather standpoint as well, so we shouldn’t have many, if any, delays or late starts.
It is wild to me that Max Fried is already going to be making his 10th start of the season. Sixteen pitchers will be on the bump for the ninth time, including Framber Valdez, as he returns from his suspension. There are a lot of aces on the slate tonight, so we’ll see if run-scoring is kept to a minimum or if the bats come alive.
I’ll be posting my daily best bets Monday-Saturday with a Sunday Night Baseball preview on Sunday, as all the day games make it tough to get something out with lead time out here in Las Vegas. All lines are from DraftKings and are current at the time of publish. Please take the initiative to SHOP AROUND for the best odds. It matters. A lot.
One new offering this baseball season is our Opta AI Player Prop Projections. They are for VSiN Pro Subscribers only, so you can check out our current offers here. Zachary Cohen will be using those projections and his own handicapping to write up MLB player props.
Greg Peterson will have his best bets posted the night before and you can also check out his daily lines to see what looks to be off-market. Steve Makinen has also released his updated Bullpen Betting Systems and DraftKings Splits Systems, plus he’ll have a daily analytics report.
Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats. Check out our new MLB tools powered by Ballpark Pal: Strikeout Projections, Park Factors, and YRFI Report.
Here are the MLB best bets today for May 13:
San Diego Padres at Milwaukee Brewers (-156, 7)
7:40 p.m. ET
The lowest total of the night games has Michael King and Jacob Misiorowski listed next to it, as the Padres and Brewers play the middle game of this three-game set. Much to my chagrin, the Brewers took Game 1, as Matt Waldron had a blow-up in the middle innings and the Padres were kept at bay for the most part by Brandon Sproat, who seems to have turned his season around.
Misiorowski doesn’t need to turn his season around. He just needs to keep doing what he’s doing. He has a 2.45 ERA with a 2.73 xERA and a 2.62 FIP in his 44 innings of work with an eye-popping 70 strikeouts in eight starts. He has three double-digit strikeout games already and hasn’t allowed more than three runs in any start.
But, I do think that the Brewers sometimes have to save Misiorowski from himself. He had some run support and a bit of a cushion in that start against the Yankees last Friday. He also had a couple extra days of rest. He’s pitching on the more traditional four days rest here after throwing 95 pitches across six innings.
It was the third time this season in eight starts that Misiorowski has completed six innings. Otherwise, he’s thrown 5.1 innings three times and 5.0 innings twice. He was pitching on the traditional four days rest back on Apr. 19 against the Marlins and gave up three runs on four hits with nine strikeouts and three walks, but he had thrown just 76 pitches in the start before that.
After averaging a season-high 101.1 mph with his fastball against the Yankees, I think Pat Murphy and the coaching staff will make the decision to reign him in a little bit here. With Monday’s off day and light workloads on Friday and Saturday, this is a fresh bullpen. The Padres are slightly above the league average in pitches per plate appearance and are second in percentage of strikes as foul balls at 30.3%. Foul balls and strikeouts can run up pitch counts pretty quickly.
This isn’t a bet on Miz to struggle, per se, but just a bet on the Brewers approaching their star youngster with a little bit of caution.
Pick: Jacob Misiorowski (MIL) Under 17.5 Outs Recorded (-112)
Miami Marlins (-126, 8.5) at Minnesota Twins
7:40 p.m. ET
The Marlins were shut down yesterday by Bailey Ober in a 3-0 loss, as Minnesota went just 1-for-8 with RISP, but Ryan Jeffers hit a two-run homer off of Eury Perez to provide more than enough insurance.
I’ll zig here and back the Marlins after backing the Twins yesterday. Laying a bit of a price here with Max Meyer up against Simeon Woods Richardson, but I’m okay with it. SWR has been awful, posting a 6.92 ERA with a 5.75 xERA and a 6.20 FIP. Ober is 6-foot-9 and sits in the upper 80s with his fastball. He also leveraged his changeup really well in last night’s start. SWR is 6-foot-3, throws closer to the league average, and has had no success on his splitter at all.
Opposing batters own a .341 BA with a .614 SLG against his splitter this season. His Whiff% on the pitch is just 17.5%, which is terrible for a splitter, though his 15.1% Whiff% on his slider might be worse. Hitters are basically pummeling everything that he throws and he has a 6.7% SwStr% that is among the lowest in the league. His 23.2% Chase Rate ranks in the 5th percentile. His 10.6% K% is in the bottom 1%. He’s just a bad pitcher and doesn’t have any of the quirks that somebody like Ober has.
Meyer has been very good for the Marlins this season, as the third overall pick in 2020 might be reaching his potential. He has a 2.79 ERA with a 4.03 xERA and a 2.88 FIP over 42 innings of work. His high xERA is due to a 9.7% Barrel%, which is absolutely a concern here, but his 54% slider usage has created the ability to generate a lot of whiffs and a lot of chases.
Both bullpens are well-rested and raring to go tonight, but I like this matchup more for the Miami offense and they should be the team with a lead to protect. Woods Richardson has allowed 21 hard-hit balls in his last two starts and four Barrels. Meyer hasn’t allowed more than three runs in any start.
Pick: Marlins -126
Arizona Diamondbacks at Texas Rangers (-112, 8.5)
8:05 p.m. ET
The Diamondbacks were shut down last night by southpaw MacKenzie Gore, who had easily his best start of the season with eight innings of one-run ball. The Diamondbacks put some cosmetic touches on the scoreboard with three runs in the ninth before having the door slammed shut by Jacob Latz, but at least they forced the Rangers to use one of their better relievers. Meanwhile, Brandon Pfaadt saved the bullpen with three innings of relief after yet another bad Zac Gallen outing.
The assignment should be a little easier for the Snakes today, as they’ll face off with Kumar Rocker. Rocker has a 5.01 ERA with a 5.19 xERA and a 4.36 FIP over his 32.1 innings of work. He’s really been holding on by a thread in a lot of his starts it feels like, as it’s all come to a head lately with eight runs allowed on 11 hits in his last 5.2 innings of work. He’s not missing a whole lot of bats and not generating a whole lot of chases, so he’s a guy that seems to have limited upside.
On the other side, you have Ryne Nelson, who has become a pretty extreme fly ball pitcher this season. He has a 5.68 ERA with a 5.08 xERA and a 5.12 FIP on the year, but he allowed 14 earned runs over two starts covering just 5.1 innings on Apr. 19 and 26. In his last two starts, he’s only allowed a solo homer with 11 strikeouts in 12.1 innings of work. It seems like he’s made some positive corrections in shutting down the Cubs and Mets after the Blue Jays and Padres beat him around.
Of course, it might just be some good luck, as he’s allowed 15 hard-hit balls and seven Barrels in those two starts, but I’m sure he’ll take it. The Rangers are 18th in Barrel% on the season, so they haven’t squared up a ton of balls. They’ll also be missing Brandon Nimmo in all likelihood tonight, as he sprained his left ankle last night. Nimmo has 12 Barrels and a 51.6% Hard Hit% overall this season and a 130 wRC+ with a .361 wOBA against RHP. That’s a big loss.
That should help Nelson and the Diamondbacks offense seems tailored to a guy like Rocker, as they put a ton of balls in play, run the bases well, and the top five in the batting order will all hit left-handed against a pitcher who has allowed a .300/.379/.471 slash to LHB in his MLB career.
Pick: Diamondbacks -108
