WNBA Picks
We’ve got a full slate of WNBA games tonight after the day off on Tuesday, with the Liberty hosting the Mercury, Portland hosting Connecticut, Toronto visiting Chicago, Atlanta traveling to Minnesota, and Seattle and Washington rematching from earlier this week. Obviously, lots of projections to get to, so let’s dive right into the TSI projections for Wednesday.
New York Liberty (-5.5) vs Phoenix Mercury, O/U 171.5
I’m not sure exactly what’s wrong with the Liberty, but they’re kind of a disaster right now. They’ve had key pieces in and out with injuries and just have not been able to click so far this season. Phoenix is just 2-5 on the year, so they’re not exactly crushing it, either. TSI projects Liberty -5.5 with a total of 172, so there’s no value to be had in this matchup at the current prices.
Chicago Sky (-5.5) vs Toronto Tempo, O/U 170
Both of these teams have been pleasantly surprising this season so far. Chicago is 9th in TSI offense and 3rd in defensive rating, while Toronto is 12th and 11th, respectively, and is 3-4 on the season. TSI projects Toronto -2 with a total of 171, so TSI is showing huge value on the road dog here, so I’ll back Toronto, as they’ve clearly shown they can put up points against anyone.
Bet: Tempo +5.5 (Play to +3)
Minnesota Lynx (+2) vs Atlanta Dream, O/U 165
This is undoubtedly the game of the night Wednesday. Atlanta is 4-1 and Minnesota is 4-2 despite playing without its best player so far. Atlanta is 10th in TSI offense but now 1st in defense, while Minnesota is 3rd and 4th, respectively. TSI projects Dream -1.5 with a total of 168, so there’s no value on the side but some room on the total to take the Over.
Bet: Over 165 (Play to 166)
Portland Fire (-6) vs Connecticut Sun, O/U 167
Portland is fresh off its second win this season over the Liberty, while Connecticut recently got its doors blown off by Golden State and is playing its 5th road game in 10 days. TSI projects Portland -8.5 with a total of 169.5. I love the spot and the number here for Portland, as they’re 11th and 13th in TSI offensive/defensive rating, and Connecticut is last on offense and second-to-last on defense.
Bet: Fire -6 (Play to -7)
Seattle Storm (+3) vs Washington Mystics, O/U 158
Seattle just crushed Washington as underdogs a few days ago, and finds themselves as home dogs again tonight. The Storm are 13th and 9th in TSI offense/defense, while Washington is 14th and 6th. TSI projects Washington -0.5 with a total of 165.5. These teams just combined for 182 points last game, so I don’t mind an Over here as well.
Bet: Over 158 (Play to 160)
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