Brickyard 400 Predictions: Top 5 Picks and Best Long Shots:
We picked up another underdog winner this past Sunday at North Wilkesboro as Joey Logano dominated the Window World 450 and cashed To Win tickets at 11-1. It was my second underdog winner in three weeks, although the overall simulation results left a lot to be desired. I guess that’s what happens when the circuit visits a track for a first points race in 30 years AND then has the qualifying session rained out. The combination of those two things made handicapping a little trickier than expected. That said, we are always looking forward, and for this week we do so by getting ready for Sunday’s Brickyard 400 from Indianapolis Motor Speedway. This race, first run in the mid-90s, was once one of the Crown Jewels on the annual schedule, but years of lackluster racing have taken away some of its allure. Still, the check for winning is big, and the victor gets to “kiss the bricks”, and those two things alone make winning here coveted by all 39 drivers.
In terms of handicapping Indianapolis Motor Speedway, the track comes with a grade of C-, and is a 2.5-mile quad oval with 9-degree banking in the turns. There are two long straightaways and two short chutes as well. The grade is a little less here in that there have only been two races run on the oval in the next gen cars. Those races were in each of the last two seasons, as the Cup Series returned to the oval after a series of unpopular grand prix course races inside the same venue. Bubba Wallace is the defending champion of this race, and Kyle Larson won the 2024 event. If you’re looking for anything more recent to use for similar purposes, I’ve always considered the racing at Pocono and Indy very similar, just different track layouts. I group them both under the FLAT SUPERSPEEDWAY designation. In which case, Denny Hamlin posted a convincing win on the Tricky Triangle, and for that reason, sits in the role of favorite as we head into the weekend activities. Tyler Reddick, John Hunter Nemechek, William Byron, and Kyle Larson also had big runs at Pocono in June, finishing in the top 5.
The odds board for this week at DraftKings shows Denny Hamlin (+400) as the favorite, followed by Tyler Reddick (+550), Ryan Blaney & Kyle Larson (+700 each), and William Byron (+900). No one else is better than +1000. It could make for some interesting underdog opportunities since the races have been inconsistent the last two years. In 2024, there were 10 cautions and a favorite won. Last year, there were only five and Wallace won it at 16-1. A real deep longshot to keep an eye on could be John Hunter Nemechek, who ran real well here last year and followed that up with a 4th place finish at Pocono in June. His price this week…+6500.
The best part about what happened at North Wilkesboro last weekend was obviously Logano getting the victory as one of my Top Underdogs to consider. Otherwise, not a whole lot went right. In any case, here are the other results from the Window World 450 and how they impacted our season numbers to date.
Initial North Wilkesboro simulation winner: Loser (-1 units) – NOW +6.85 units for the season
Final North Wilkesboro Simulation winner: Loser (-1 units) – NOW +39.05 units for the season
Final North Wilkesboro Simulation Top 2 drivers To Win: Two losers – total return -2 units – NOW +28.35 units for the season
Final simulation top 3 North Wilkesboro projections: one winner, two losers, Hamlin +180 – total return -0.95 units – NOW +1.75 units for the season
Final simulation top 5 North Wilkesboro projections: two winners, three losers, Hamlin -120, Gibbs +110 – total return -4.4 units – Now -19.15 units for the season
As DraftKings has apparently stopped posting Top 10 odds, which I assume because they have not done it the last three races, I am discontinuing my updating of those. For the record, we landed three top 10 finishers last week against seven losers.
To be perfectly honest, it was tough betting guys that were very overpriced at North Wilkesboro, most notably Christopher Bell, who struggled out of the gate and never showed the same strength he did in the practice session on Saturday. That said, we were able to score another outright underdog winner, our second in three weeks!
Now for my final personal picks which are published each race day in the VSiN Email Newsletter…
Final simulation top 5 North Wilkesboro projections: : one winner, four losers, Hamlin -120 – total return -5.2 units – Now -38.3 units for the season
Top North Wilkesboro Longshots to win: one winner, three losers – Logano (+1100) total return +8 units – Now +6 units for the season
Favorites to struggle at North Wilkesboro: Briscoe (3rd), Hocevar (13th), Wallace (6th), Reddick (30th) – Now 59 for 82 for the season picking usual contending drivers to finish outside of the top 10!
Not a great showing for my top 5 or favorites to fade sections, but that is exactly what can happen when you race for the first time in 30 years at a track like North Wilkesboro. The call on Reddick to struggle was not a popular one, but he did finish 30th.
Looking ahead to the Brickyard now on Sunday, I have dug out the stats for the last four races run at Flat Superspeedways over the last two calendar years, and here are the leaders during that time frame in specific racing categories. Again, I have now decided to narrow down the number of drivers I am looking at in these stat leaders to those most offered on the typical betting platforms:
Average STARTING POSITION LAST FOUR FLAT SUPERSPEEDWAY Races
1. Ty Gibbs: 5.5
2. Tyler Reddick: 7.25
3. Chase Briscoe: 8
4. Chris Buescher: 9.5
5. Denny Hamlin: 10.75
6. Kyle Larson: 11
…
26. Ricky Stenhouse: 23
27. Ryan Preece: 25.5
28. Todd Gilliland: 26
29. Ross Chastain: 26.5
30. Josh Berry: 27.25
31. Connor Zilisch: 28
Average PRACTICE POSITION LAST FOUR FLAT SUPERSPEEDWAY Races
1. Kyle Larson: 7.75
2. Denny Hamlin: 8.25
3. Chris Buescher: 8.75
4. William Byron: 9.75
5. Tyler Reddick: 10.25
6. Darrell Wallacel: 10.5
…
26. Todd Gilliland: 22.75
27. Joey Logano: 23
28. Ricky Stenhouse: 23.25
29. Chase Briscoe: 24
30. Shane Van Gisbergen: 28.33
31. Ryan Preece: 30
Average RUNNING POSITION LAST FOUR FLAT SUPERSPEEDWAY Races
1. Denny Hamlin: 7.5
2. Chase Briscoe: 9.75
3. Kyle Larson: 10.5
4. Tyler Reddick: 11.75
5. John Hunter Nemechek: 12
6. Ryan Blaney: 12
…
26. Austin Dillon: 23.5
27. Michael McDowell: 24
28. AJ Allmendinger: 25
29. Shane Van Gisbergen: 25.33
30. Noah Gragson: 27
31. Connor Zilisch: 30
Average LAPS LED LAST FOUR FLAT SUPERSPEEDWAY Races
1. Chase Briscoe: 27.5
2. Denny Hamlin: 20.5
3. Tyler Reddick: 16
4. Brad Keselowski: 15.5
5. John Hunter Nemechek: 14.75
6. Darrell Wallace: 14
…
23. William Byron: 0
24. Ty Gibbs: 0
25. Daniel Suarez: 0
26. Josh Berry: 0
27. Zane Smith: 0
28. Austin Dillon: 0
29. AJ Allmendinger: 0
30. Shane Van Gisbergen: 0
31. Connor Zilisch: 0
Average DRIVER RATING LAST FOUR FLAT SUPERSPEEDWAY Races
1. Denny Hamlin: 114.825
2. Kyle Larson: 105.35
3. Tyler Reddick: 100.75
4. Chase Briscoe: 99.375
5. Ryan Blaney: 94.625
6. John Hunter Nemechek: 93.225
…
26. Austin Dillon: 55.7
27. Michael McDowell: 53
28. Noah Gragson: 49.675
29. AJ Allmendinger: 49.425
30. Connor Zilisch: 46.9
31. Shane Van Gisbergen: 42.97
Most AVG LAPS RUN in TOP 15 LAST FOUR FLAT SUPERSPEEDWAY Races
1. Denny Hamlin: 142.75
2. Kyle Larson: 130
3. Tyler Reddick: 124.75
4. Chase Briscoe: 123.5
5. John Hunter Nemechek: 109.25
6. William Byron: 108
…
26. Michael McDowell: 37.25
27. Austin Dillon: 29.5
28. AJ Allmendinger: 21
29. Shane Van Gisbergen: 16
30. Noah Gragson: 15.75
31. Connor Zilisch: 6
Best AVERAGE FINISH LAST FOUR FLAT SUPERSPEEDWAY Races
1. Kyle Larson: 3.75
2. Ryan Blaney: 5.75
3. Denny Hamlin: 9.5
4. Chase Elliott: 9.75
5. Austin Cindric: 11.5
6. Chris Buescher: 11.75
…
26. Noah Gragson: 25
27. Josh Berry: 25.5
28. AJ Allmendinger: 25.75
29. Shane Van Gisbergen: 27
30. Zane Smith: 27.5
31. Joey Logano: 29
If you’re wondering which simulation factors have proven most impactful recently at FLAT SUPERSPEEDWAYS, in order they have been 1) recent momentum and 2) how drivers do at similar tracks. Typically, qualifying and practice speeds haven’t proven as important. Even still, those things will affect the final simulation.
With those stats in mind, my top-rated drivers at Indianapolis Motor Speedway are Tyler Reddick, Kyle Larson, Bubba Wallace, Chase Elliott, and Christopher Bell. In terms of FLAT SUPERSPEEDWAYS, the order is Reddick, Denny Hamlin, Ryan Blaney, Elliott, Larson. For recent ratings, the top five are Ty Gibbs, Blaney, Hamlin, Larson, Reddick. All of it goes into the making of my initial simulation, which can be seen now on the VSiN.com website by navigating under the SPORTS tab to AUTO RACING, then to NASCAR HUB.
The final simulation will be made available Saturday afternoon after qualifying, which is set for 1:30 p.m. ET. Practice is actually a day earlier this week. That said, having to make my predictions at this point (which could change a bit after qualifying), I would go with the following:
Top 5: Hamlin, Reddick, Larson, Elliott, Blaney
Top underdogs to consider (+1400 or higher): Elliott, Reddick, Gibbs, Wallace
Favorites to struggle: Briscoe, Wallace, Buescher, Nemechek
The 500-mile event at Indy is set for 2:00 p.m. ET on Sunday the 26th.
Be sure to visit VSiN.com for this week’s full INITIAL SIMULATION. This is where you’ll find the sims all season long. While there, you can click on driver links for season stats and recent results, plus get current odds and much, much more.
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