FireKeeper’s Casino 400 Predictions: Top 5 Picks and Best Long Shots:
Hopefully, you stayed up late on Sunday night to see the conclusion of the Cracker Barrel 400 from Nashville Superspeedway. Not only was it an incredible 1-2-3 Joe Gibbs Racing team finish order, but our simulation’s projected winner, Denny Hamlin, took home the checkered flag with .115 seconds to spare. We’ve regained some momentum recently with our projections, so it was great to capture another +400 winner. That victory, and the +4 units it brought in, has now clinched profitability for the season for outright winners! We now move on to Michigan Speedway for the annual running of the FireKeeper’s Casino 400. In this piece, I will be previewing that race from a stat perspective, offering up my early predictions, and updating the latest records and returns for the season.
Michigan Speedway receives a grade of C on our handicap-ability scale. In the past, this track was one of the more predictable on the circuit. However, since the Cup Series no longer runs at Fontana, a sister track to this one, and there is one instead of two stops here annually, the races have become a little less predictable. The track is also unique in that it is the only 2-mile speedway on the schedule, and it is a WIDE racing surface with an 18-degree banking. Making just a single-season stop at such a unique track like this is tough on teams. They don’t want to invest too much time in testing for such a limited opportunity. The results here can often be settled by pit strategy too. All of these factors have led to 24 cars in the last four races not finishing, and hence the grade of C. That said, the last three winners have started the race in the top 4 spots, so clearly qualifying is important, and thus, predicting here is not impossible.
Not surprisingly, the odds board for this week is dominated by the usual suspects, with Hamlin (+400) the significant favorite, followed by Christopher Bell (+600), Tyler Reddick (+700), and Kyle Larson (+700) as the breakaway four. Hamlin is the defending champion of this race, doing so from the #3 starting spot. Reddick, Chris Buescher, and now-retired Kevin Harvick are the other three winners from the next gen car era here.
The initial simulation run from Tuesday shows a very tight finish from the top 3 drivers, William Byron, Buescher, and Hamlin. Interestingly, Byron (+1400) and Buescher (+1400) are both considered underdogs for this race.
Before digging into what to look for statistically at Michigan, here’s a quick wrap-up of what happened last week at Nashville, and how our simulation projections have fared in terms of betting results to date through 14 races.
Initial Nashville simulation winner: Winner Hamlin (+4 units) – NOW +2 units for the season
Final Nashville Simulation winner: Winner Hamlin (+4 units) – NOW +29.5 units for the season
Final Nashville Simulation Top 2 drivers To Win: One winner, one loser – total return +3 units – NOW +25.8 units for the season
Final simulation top 3 Nashville projections: two winners, one loser, Hamlin +110, Bell +175 – total return +1.85 unit – NOW +1.45 units for the season
Final simulation top 5 Nashville projections: two winners, three losers, Hamlin -215, Bell -120 – total return -1.15 units – Now -0.85 units for the season
Final simulation top 10 Nashville projections: five winners (Reddick, Blaney, Hamlin, Bell, Elliott), five losers, – total return -8.85 units – Now -1.25 units for the season
Nashville was a decent performance overall, and could/would have been much better had the back half of the top 10 not wiped itself out on the final lap. It happens. Still, when you consider the very heavy amount of “juice” tagged on these NASCAR wagers by a site like DraftKings, ALL of the above returns are very respectable for blind wagering.
Now for my final personal picks, which are published each race day in the VSiN Email Newsletter.
My personal top 5 Nashville predictions: two winners, three losers, Hamlin -215, Bell -120 – total return -1.15 units – Now -13.45 units for the season
Top Nashville Longshots to win: three losers –total return -3 units – Now +7 units for the season
Favorites to struggle at Nashville: Briscoe (3rd), Buescher (29th), Keselowski (34th), Bowman (33rd)– Now 40 for 53 for the season, picking usual contending drivers to finish outside of the top 10!
That last tidbit on my picking of guys to struggle at Nashville fared very well, with three of four outside the top 28. Hopefully, bettors were able to take advantage of fading the likes of Buescher, Keselowski, and Bowman in head-to-head matchups. Looking ahead to Michigan now on Sunday, I have dug out the stats for the races in the next gen car over the last four seasons that have been run at this 2-mile, 18-degree WIDE speedway.
Average STARTING POSITION last four races at Michigan
1. Denny Hamlin: 6.5
2. Darrell Wallace: 6.5
3. Christopher Bell: 7.75
4. Kyle Larson: 8.5
5. Tyler Reddick: 8.75
6. Joey Logano: 9.75
…
31. Ricky Stenhouse: 28.75
32. Todd Gilliland: 30.5
33. Austin Hill: 30.5
34. JJ Yeley: 32.5
35. Riley Herbst: 34
36. Cody Ware: 35.33
Average PRACTICE SPEED last four races at Michigan
1. Alex Bowman: 6.75
2. Darell Wallace: 7.75
3. Carson Hocevar: 9
4. William Byron: 10
5. Ty Gibbs: 10
6. Kyle Larson: 10.25
…
31. Shane Van Gisbergen: 31
32. Todd Gilliland: 31.75
33. Cody Ware: 32
34. Austin Hill: 33
35. JJ Yeley: 33
36. Riley Herbst: 34
Average RUNNING POSITION last four races at Michigan
1. Denny Hamlin: 9.5
2. Darrell Wallace: 10.5
3. Chris Buescher: 11.5
4. Kyle Larson: 12
5. Ross Chastain: 12
6. Carson Hocevar: 12.5
…
31. Todd Gilliland: 27
32. Cody Ware: 27.33
33. Riley Herbst: 28
34. Cole Custer: 29.67
35. John Hunter Nemechek: 30.5
36. JJ Yeley: 31.5
Average LAPS LED last four races at Michigan
1. William Byron: 29.5
2. Carson Hocevar: 17.5
3. Chris Buescher: 16.5
4. Daniel Suarez: 13
5. Ross Chastain: 12.25
6. Darrell Wallace: 12
7. Chase Elliott: 12
…
25. Joey Logano: 0
26. Ryan Preece: 0
27. AJ Allmendinger: 0
28. Noah Gragson: 0
29. Michael McDowell: 0
30. Shane Van Gisbergen: 0
31. Austin Hill: 0
32. Todd Gilliland: 0
33. Riley Herbst: 0
34. Cole Custer: 0
35. John Hunter Nemechek: 0
36. JJ Yeley: 0
Average DRIVER RATING last four races at Michigan
1. Denny Hamlin: 108.53
2. Kyle Larson: 101.53
3. Chris Buescher: 100.95
4. Darrell Wallacel: 94.38
5. William Byron: 91.55
6. Tyler Reddick: 91.4
…
31. Cody Ware: 41.9
32. Todd Gilliland: 37.25
33. Riley Herbst: 36.5
34. Cole Custer: 34.93
35. JJ Yeley: 31.45
36. John Hunter Nemechek: 31.1
Most AVG LAPS RUN in TOP 15 last four races at Michigan
1. Denny Hamlin: 163.25
2. Darrell Wallace: 155
3. Kyle Larson: 148.25
4. William Byron: 146
5. Carson Hocevar: 144.5
6. Ross Chastain: 143.75
…
31. Cody Ware: 13
32. Shane Van Gisbergen: 10
33. JJ Yeley: 8.5
34. Cole Custer: 5.33
35. John Hunter Nemechek: 1
36. Riley Herbst: 0
Best AVERAGE FINISH last four races at Michigan
1. Denny Hamlin: 4
2. Ty Gibbs: 5.67
3. Chris Buescher: 6.25
4. Zane Smith: 7
5. Brad Keselowski: 8.5
…
31. Chase Briscoe: 26.25
32. Austin Cindric: 27
33. Cole Custer: 30.33
34. JJ Yeley: 31
35. Todd Gilliland: 31.25
36. John Hunter Nemechek: 31.5
There are some pretty interesting statistical numbers above, most notably the list of guys at the top of the AVERAGE LAPS LED category. Hocevar, Buescher, Suarez, Chastain, and Wallace are not some of the names we typically see at the top of these stat leaders. It could make for an interesting race on Sunday. With all of these stats in mind, my top-rated simulation drivers at Michigan are, in order, are Buescher, Byron, Larson, Hamlin, and Reddick. For recent ratings, the top 5 are Hamlin, Blaney, Reddick, Gibbs, and Bell. A reminder that the most important simulation factor for Michigan is qualifying spot, followed by how each driver does AT Michigan. All of it goes into the making of my initial simulation, which can be seen now on the VSiN.com website by navigating under the SPORTS tab to AUTO RACING, then to NASCAR HUB.
The final simulation will be made available Saturday afternoon after practice/qualifying, which is set for 5:00 PM ET. That said, having to make my predictions at this point (which WILL change a bit on Sunday in the morning VSiN Newsletter), I would go with the following:
Top 5: Larson, Gibbs, Byron, Hamlin, Buescher
Top underdogs to consider: Chastain, Gibbs, Hocevar, Buescher, Wallace
Favorites to fade: Logano, Bowman, Elliott, Briscoe
The 200-lap event at Michigan Speedway is set for 3:00 PM ET on Sunday, the 7th of June.
Be sure to visit VSiN.com for this week’s full INITIAL SIMULATION. This is where you’ll find the sims all season long. While there, you can click on driver links for season stats and recent results, plus get current odds, and much, much more.
