WNBA Picks
The regression bug hit hard last night. Games with some very high totals went under, at our expense. It was probably bound to happen sooner or later, considering how much higher the scoring had been than league average. Friday, we’ve got three games on deck featuring the Washington Mystics hosting the Atlanta Dream, the Connecticut Sun hosting the Phoenix Mercury, and the Dallas Wings hosting the Golden State Valkyries. Here are the TSI projections for Friday, August 7th.
Washington Mystics (+5.5) vs Atlanta Dream, O/U 170.5
This line has moved from Atlanta -3.5 to Atlanta -5.5, which I don’t understand since there are no injuries on the Washington side. These teams have been trending in polar opposite directions, as Washington has been seven points better than their season average over the last three games and Atlanta has been 3.5 points worse than theirs. The home team has won each of the previous two meetings this year, with Washington winning by five at home and Atlanta winning by a dominant 32 in Atlanta. TSI projects Atlanta -2 with a total of 173.5, so I really like Washington here. The Mystics have been 1.5 points better at home and Atlanta has been 1.5 points worse on the road this season, plus the way these teams are trending makes me think Washington may just win the game outright – although they have fooled me before.
Bet: Mystics +5.5 (Play to +3.5)
Connecticut Sun (+6.5) vs Phoenix Mercury, O/U 175
Phoenix will look to continue its playoff push since the acquisition of Kelsey Plum at the deadline, and playing Connecticut isn’t a bad way to pick up a much-needed win. The Sun have been playing three points worse than their already-low season average, while Phoenix has actually been a point worse since getting Plum, although it’s just a two-game sample. These teams have split the season series 1-1 so far, with both games prior being played in Phoenix. TSI projects Mercury -3.5 with a total of 173.5. It’s tough to gauge Phoenix right now since the team so drastically changes (potentially) as Plum gets integrated into the lineup, so I think I’m going to pass for now as I don’t want to back Connecticut here and I don’t want to play an Under on Phoenix at the moment with their scoring potential.
Dallas Wings (-1.5) vs Golden State Valkyries, O/U 161.5
Dallas has been 2.5 points worse than their season average over the last three games, while Golden State has been a smidge above theirs. Golden State won the only prior matchup this season, a 91-80 win at Golden State. TSI projects a pick ‘em with a total of 163.5. I think Golden State potentially ends up favored here, as the market seems to be creeping that way. I like the Valkyries at +1.5 or better because since the All-Star break, they’re holding teams 2.5 points below their home/road scoring average while scoring 1.5 points above opponents’ averages.
Bet: Valkyries +1.5 or better
For all of my WNBA picks, including prop bets and live plays, be sure to follow me on X @TShoeIndex and turn your notifications on to get real-time updates from me on all things WNBA.
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