NASCAR Coca-Cola 600 Predictions: Top 5 Picks and Best Long Shots:
The All-Star race on Sunday at Dover was unique both in format and in handicapping, and although it was a bit different from the usual point races, we secured another race winner for our initial and final simulations with Denny Hamlin taking home the checkered flag, as well as a huge prize check of $1 million, at +330 odds. Consider that a gift to my loyal NASCAR followers, as I typically don’t do simulations for the All-Star event because of the format difference. I won’t be counting it in the updated results numbers, however. For that, I will be resuming normal coverage with this week’s Sunday evening race at Charlotte Motor Speedway.
The Coca-Cola 600 is a longtime Memorial Day weekend tradition and one of NASCAR’s most prestigious events. Hopefully, fans are grateful that we’ll get to watch this crown jewel again on Sunday, as it completes an awesome day of race watching after the Indianapolis 500. It is NASCAR’s longest race of the season, in terms of time and mileage. The racing at Charlotte is very fast, and in terms of similar tracks, I consider Texas a sister venue when doing my analysis. Recall that we were just at Texas a few weeks ago when Chase Elliott won. Be careful, though, not to put any stock into the recent fall races at Charlotte, as those were run on the ROVAL, a hybrid road course layout at this same facility.
Charlotte gets a handicap-ability grade of C on my scale, as it can be a long and grueling race for drivers. As such, over the course of 600 miles, it is not uncommon to run into some kind of mayhem on the track or in the pits. In terms of recent simulation factors that have meant most, consider qualifying and recent momentum as the most important, while practice speeds are the least important. That note about the starting spot is interesting since each Coca-Cola 600 race has 400 laps and a lot of time for jostling positions.
Before digging into what to look for statistically at Charlotte, here’s a quick wrap-up of what happened two weeks ago at Watkins Glen, and how our simulation projections have fared in terms of betting results to date through 12 races.
Initial Watkins Glen simulation winner: winner SVG (+1 units) – NOW -1 units for the season
Final Watkins Glen simulation winner: winner SVG (+1 units) – NOW +26.5 units for the season
Final Watkins Glen simulation Top 2 drivers To Win: one winner, one loser – total return +0 units – NOW +24.8 units for the season
Final simulation top 3 Watkins Glen projections: one winner, two losers, SV-400 – total return -1 unit – NOW +0.45 units for the season
Final simulation top 5 Watkins Glen projections: one winner, four losers, SVG -900 – total return -3 units – Now +1.3 units for the season
Final simulation top 10 Watkins Glen projections: six winners (SVG, Cindric, Gibbs, McDowell, Reddick, Briscoe), four losers, – total return +2.05 units – Now +6.6 units for the season
We are still recovering from the losses at Talladega a few weeks ago, but a couple of weeks ago at Watkins Glen got us some profits back. Hopefully, getting back into some higher graded handicap-ability tracks will help restore our profits to what they were prior.
Now for my final personal picks, which are published each race day in the VSiN Email Newsletter…
My personal top 5 Watkins Glen predictions: two winners, three losers – SVG -900, Gibbs +120 – total return -0.8 units – Now -13.4 units for the season
Top Watkins Glen long shots to win: five losers –total return -5 units – Now +15 units for the season
Favorites to struggle at Watkins Glen: Larson (23rd), Hamlin (16th), Elliott (24th), Wallace (29th) – Now 35 for 45 for the season picking usual contending drivers to finish outside of the top 10!
Looking ahead to Charlotte now on Sunday, I have dug out the stats for the races in the Next Gen car over the last four seasons that have been run at this 1.5-mile, 24-degree high-banked fast superspeedway. Ross Chastain is the most recent winner here, doing it in this race a year ago. Christopher Bell, Ryan Blaney and Denny Hamlin are the other drivers who have won here in the Next Gen car era.
Average STARTING POSITION last four races at Charlotte
1. William Byron: 2.75
2. Christopher Bell: 6.25
3. Ty Gibbs: 9
4. Denny Hamlin: 9
5. Tyler Reddick: 10.75
6. Chase Elliott: 11.5
…
30. Ty Dillon: 29.25
31. Carson Hocevar: 29.5
32. Riley Herbst: 31
33. Shane Van Gisbergen: 33
34. Connor Zilisch: 33
35. Todd Gilliland: 33.5
36. Cody Ware: 34.5
Average PRACTICE SPEED last four races at Charlotte
1. Carson Hocevar: 2.5
2. Ty Gibbs: 8.67
3. William Byron: 10
4. Ross Chastain: 10
5. Darrell Wallace: 10.5
6. AJ Allmendinger: 11
…
31. Cole Custer: 26
32. Shane Van Gisbergen: 26.5
33. Zane Smith: 30.33
34. Ty Dillon: 30.5
35. Connor Zilisch: 35
36. Cody Ware: 35.5
Average RUNNING POSITION last four races at Charlotte
1. William Byron: 7.75
2. Christopher Bell: 8.75
3. Tyler Reddick: 10.25
4. Denny Hamlin: 10.5
5. Ty Gibbs: 11
6. Ross Chastain: 11.25
…
31. Zane Smith: 25.67
32. Todd Gilliland: 26
33. Cody Ware: 29
34. Ty Dillon: 29.5
35. Connor Zilisch: 30
36. Riley Herbst: 33
Average LAPS LED last four races at Charlotte
1. William Byron: 106
2. Ross Chastain: 42.75
3. Ryan Blaney: 41.25
4. Christopher Bell: 35.75
5. Kyle Larson: 28.67
6. Ty Gibbs: 26.67
…
23. AJ Allmendinger: 0
24. Alex Bowman: 0
25. John Hunter Nemechek: 0
26. Erik Jones: 0
27. Austin Dillon: 0
28. Cole Custer: 0
29. Austin Cindric: 0
30. Noah Gragson: 0
31. Ryan Preece: 0
32. Todd Gilliland: 0
33. Cody Ware: 0
34. Ty Dillon: 0
35. Connor Zilisch: 0
36. Riley Herbst: 0
Average DRIVER RATING last four races at Charlotte
1. William Byron: 114.9
2. Christopher Bell: 107.8
3. Tyler Reddick: 101.975
4. Denny Hamlin: 101.125
5. Ross Chastain: 94.85
6. Kyle Busch: 86.55
…
31. Zane Smith: 52.47
32. Todd Gilliland: 49.025
33. Ty Dillon: 43.1
34. Cody Ware: 41.45
35. Connor Zilisch: 39
36. Riley Herbst: 36.7
Most AVG LAPS RUN in TOP 15 last four races at Charlotte
1. William Byron: 302.75
2. Denny Hamlin: 297.5
3. Tyler Reddick: 292
4. Christopher Bell: 284
5. Ross Chastain: 255.5
6. Chase Elliott: 240.75
7. Ty Gibbs: 239.67
…
30. Zane Smith: 80.33
31. Shane Van Gisbergen: 25
32. Todd Gilliland: 13.75
33. Ty Dillon: 10.25
34. Cody Ware: 5
35. Connor Zilisch: 4
36. Riley Herbst: 1
Best AVERAGE FINISH last four races at Charlotte
1. AJ Allmendinger: 9
2. Christopher Bell: 9.5
3. Kyle Busch: 9.5
4. William Byron: 9.75
5. Tyler Reddick: 10.25
6. Josh Berry: 11
….
30. Daniel Suarez: 27
31. Noah Gragson: 27
32. Zane Smith: 27.33
33. Carson Hocevar: 27.5
34. Riley Herbst: 28
35. John Hunter Nemechek: 28.5
36. Austin Cindric: 29
There are some pretty interesting statistical numbers above, most notably AJ Allmendinger leading the field in average finish (9.0). Perhaps a top-10 wager for him is already in order at what should be favorable odds. With all of those stats in mind, my top-rated drivers at Charlotte, in order, are Byron, Larson, Blaney, Bell and Hamlin. In terms of Track Designation ratings (FAST Speedway), the top guys are Reddick, Hamlin, Larson, Blaney and Elliott. And finally, for recent ratings, the top 5 are Reddick, Blaney, Hamlin, Larson and Gibbs, All of it goes into the making of my initial simulation, which can be seen now on the NASCAR HUB at VSiN.com.
The final simulation will be made available Saturday afternoon after practice/qualifying, which is set for 1:30 p.m. ET. That said, having to make my predictions at this point (which could change a bit on Sunday in the morning VSiN Newsletter), I would go with the following:
Top 5: Hamlin, Reddick, Byron, Bell, Elliott
Top underdogs to consider (+1600 or higher): Gibbs, Hocevar, Keselowski, Allmendinger, Chastain
Favorites to struggle: Briscoe, Logano, Bowman, Cindric
The 400-lap event at the Glen is set for 6 p.m. ET on Sunday.
Be sure to visit VSiN.com for this week’s full INITIAL SIMULATION. This is where you’ll find the sims all season long. While there, you can click on driver links for season stats and recent results, plus get current odds, and much, much more.
