The Great American Getaway 400 at Pocono Predictions: Top 5 Picks and Best Long Shots:
Denny Hamlin’s recent hot stretch has been our simulation’s hot stretch as well, including the All-Star Race at Dover last month. He has been projected to win three times and has fulfilled that promise each time out. It brought us back over 10-units of profit in that span. In his latest triumph at Michigan, he beat the rest of the field by over 11 seconds, despite having to move to the rear of the field prior to the race. I will address that particular subject in a bit, but for now, we move on to handicapping the Great American Getaway 400 from Pocono Raceway, and yep, you guessed it, Hamlin is a heavy favorite both on the odds board and on our simulation. Pocono has arguably been his best track throughout his career, and especially recently, where he has two wins and two second-place finishes in the last four races here in the next gen car. It would seem that the biggest question for this week is, “Can anyone derail the hottest driver in the circuit at one of his best tracks?”
As opposed to Michigan last week, which had a handicap-ability grade of C, reflected in a race that saw 13 drivers DNF, Pocono Raceway in Long Pond, PA has proven far more predictable and earns a grade of B+. This should bode well for Hamlin, whose recent stats here dominate the field. Why is this huge two-mile triangle-shaped raceway more predictable? Well, in short, it starts with the track being flat, as the banking tops out at 14 degrees. You will generally find that the highest graded tracks are flat tracks, albeit long or short. This particular raceway is somewhat similar in racing style to that of the Brickyard in Indianapolis, although the main difference is the shape. Indy is an oval; this is a triangle. Still, both have long flat straightaways, which are conducive to the fastest cars on the track gaining separation. While the nickname for Pocono is the “Tricky Triangle,” that might be a bit overstated, especially when it comes to handicapping races. Let’s take advantage.
Besides Hamlin’s dominant run of either first or second in four straight races, the only two other winners here in the next gen car have been Chase Briscoe in 2025 and Ryan Blaney in 2024. Both of those guys should be top contenders this week to challenge Hamlin. Qualifying is THE most important simulation factor for this week, followed closely by recent performance. Interestingly, in our initial simulation, the overall projected top 5, the top 5 at the FLAT SUPERSPEEDWAY designation, and the top 5 recent-performing drivers are all the same group, just shuffled a bit. That is where your list for handicapping Sunday’s race should start. Of course, I would wait till qualifying is in the books on Saturday, as that could definitely change the projections. Of the last four winners here, ALL FOUR have started in the Top 8 spots.
Not surprisingly, the odds board for this week is dominated by the usual suspects, with Hamlin (+275) the significant favorite, followed by Kyle Larson (+650), Tyler Reddick (+750), Christopher Bell (+850), and Ryan Blaney (+950) as the top 5. Missing from that group on the top 5 lists I shared before is Ty Gibbs, who is recognized as a good longshot at +1600. Be careful with Bell, as he suffered significant wrist and ankle injuries in a hard crash at Michigan, and it is unclear at this point the extent to which it could affect him going forward.
As I mentioned earlier, I would address the subject of cars moving to the rear of the field prior to the start of the race for car/mechanical adjustments. I was asked about this subject by a loyal reader and NASCAR bettor on Sunday morning, when Hamlin was forced to do so prior to Michigan. As I told him, the only tracks I would consider this a major detriment at are the really short tracks where it’s common to get put laps down more easily, or at road courses, where it’s harder to get back to the front. At a real wide track like Michigan, it barely fazed Hamlin as he raced carefully to get back up front and eventually won by 11+ seconds. Plus, I feel that the aspect of stage racing has taken some of the bite out of having to move back to the rear of the field. Good drivers who demonstrated top speed in practice and/or qualifying to get a top starting spot will find that speed again in the race, and while the prospects are a bit more challenging, don’t let it sway your convictions.
Before digging into what to look for statistically at Pocono, here’s a quick wrap-up of what happened last week at Michigan, and how our simulation projections have fared in terms of betting results to date through 15 races.
Initial Michigan simulation winner: Loser (-1 units) – NOW +1 units for the season
Final Michigan Simulation winner: Winner Hamlin (+3.7 units) – NOW +33.2 units for the season!
Final Michigan Simulation Top 2 drivers To Win: One winner, one loser – total return +2.7 units – NOW +28.5 units for the season
Final simulation top 3 Michigan projections: one winner, two losers, Hamlin +115 – total return -0.95 units – NOW +0.5 units for the season
Final simulation top 5 Michigan projections: two winners, three losers, Hamlin -190, Lason +120 – total return -2.3 units – Now -3.15 units for the season
Final simulation top 10 Michigan projections: five winners (Hamlin, Buescher, Larson, Hocevar, Wallace), five losers, – total return -8.8 units – Now -10.05 units for the season
Anytime we can get an outright winner at a C-graded track like Michigan is a real blessing. However, the fact that 13 drivers failed to finish that race due to accidents was proof of how difficult race handicapping can be there. The Tyler Reddick crash alone cost us -6.7 units in top 10 pricing. That said, I have to remind you that when you consider the very heavy amount of “juice” tagged on these NASCAR wagers by a site like DraftKings, ALL of the above returns are very respectable for blind wagering.
Now for my final personal picks, which are published each race day in the VSiN Email Newsletter…
My personal top 5 Michigan predictions: one winner, four losers, Hamlin -190 – total return -4.5 units – Now -17.85 units for the season
Top Michigan Longshots to win: four losers –total return -4 units – Now +3 units for the season
Favorites to struggle at Michigan: Blaney (8th), Logano (7th), Keselowski (34th), Bowman (19th) – Now 42 for 57 for the season, picking usual contending drivers to finish outside of the top 10!
Looking ahead to Pocono now on Sunday, I have dug out the stats for the races in the next gen car over the last four seasons that have been run at this two-mile, FLAT SUPERSPEEDWAY.
Average STARTING POSITION last four races at Pocono
1. Denny Hamlin: 3.5
2. Ty Gibbs: 6.33
3. Carson Hocevar: 9
4. Christopher Bell: 9.5
5. Tyler Reddick: 9.5
6. Joey Logano: 10.5
…
22. Michael McDowell: 22.25
23. Erik Jones: 23
24. Shane Van Gisbergen: 23
25. AJ Allmendinger: 25
26. Ricky Stenhouse: 25.5
27. Ryan Preece: 27.67
Average PRACTICE SPEED last four races at Pocono
1. Tyler Reddick: 3.5
2. William Byron: 4.75
3. Darrell Wallacel: 7.5
4. Chase Elliott: 8
5. Kyle Larson: 8.5
6. Ty Gibbs: 9
…
22. Chase Briscoe: 24.25
23. Austin Dillon: 24.5
24. Ricky Stenhouse: 25.5
25. Shane Van Gisbergen: 26
26. Josh Berry: 29.5
27. Zane Smith: 30.5
Average RUNNING POSITION last four races at Pocono
1. Denny Hamlin: 5.75
2. William Byron: 10.5
3. Kyle Larson: 11.5
4. Christopher Bell: 12.25
5. Ryan Blaney: 12.5
6. Chris Buescher: 13
…
22. Ryan Preece: 21
23. Michael McDowell: 21.25
24. AJ Allmendinger: 22
25. Austin Dillon: 24
26. Ross Chastain: 25.75
27. Shane Van Gisbergen: 27
Average LAPS LED last four races at Pocono
1. Denny Hamlin: 23.25
2. William Byron: 19
3. Chase Briscoe: 18
4. Ryan Blaney: 14
5. Brad Keselowski: 11.75
6. Kyle Larson: 10.5
…
18. Chase Elliott: 0
19. Austin Cindric: 0
20. Daniel Suarez: 0
21. Zane Smith: 0
22. Ryan Preece: 0
23. Michael McDowell: 0
24. AJ Allmendinger: 0
25. Austin Dillon: 0
26. Ross Chastain: 0
27. Shane Van Gisbergen: 0
Average DRIVER RATING last four races at Pocono
1. Denny Hamlin: 127.85
2. Ryan Blaney: 95.53
3. William Byron: 94.23
4. Tyler Reddick: 92.35
5. Kyle Larson: 91.93
6. Chris Buescher: 89.85
…
22. Ryan Preece: 57.9
23. Michael McDowell: 57.23
24. AJ Allmendinger: 56.9
25. Austin Dillon: 49.08
26. Ross Chastain: 45.7
27. Shane Van Gisbergen: 38.3
Most AVG LAPS RUN in TOP 15 last four races at Pocono
1. Denny Hamlin: 150.25
2. Kyle Larson: 118.5
3. Erik Jones: 115.25
4. Christopher Bell: 114
5. William Byron: 113.75
6. Tyler Reddick: 109.5
…
22. Michael McDowell: 42.25
23. Ryan Preece: 37
24. AJ Allmendinger: 31
25. Ross Chastain: 31
26. Austin Dillon: 17.75
27. Shane Van Gisbergen: 4
Best AVERAGE FINISH last four races at Pocono
1. Denny Hamlin: 1.5
2. Christopher Bell: 10.25
3. Chase Elliott: 10.5
4. Tyler Reddick: 11
5. Kyle Larson: 11.75
6. Erik Jones: 11.75
…
22. Ricky Stenhouse: 22.5
23. Ryan Preece: 23
24. Austin Dillon: 26.25
25. Zane Smith: 27
26. Ross Chastain: 27
27. Shane Van Gisbergen: 31
There are some pretty interesting statistical numbers above, most notably the dominance by Hamlin. Also, seeing Erik Jones show up at the top of a few lists is an eye-opener, too, particularly after he recorded a season-high second-place finish last week at Michigan. With all of these stats in mind, my top-rated simulation drivers at Pocono are, in order: Hamlin, Elliott, Buescher, Blaney, and Keselowski. For track designation ratings, which may include the Brickyard too for some drivers, the top 5 are Larson, Hamlin, Reddick, Blaney, and Gibbs. For recent ratings, those top 5 are the same, just in a slightly shuffled order: Hamlin, Reddick, Gibbs, Larson, Blaney. A reminder that the most important simulation factor for Pocono is the qualifying spot, followed by how each driver is doing recently. The fact that the top-rated drivers at FLAT SUPERSPEEDWAYS are the exact same five guys as the recent hottest five drivers is not lost on me. All of this goes into the making of my initial simulation, which can be seen now on the VSiN.com website by navigating under the SPORTS tab to AUTO RACING, then to NASCAR HUB.
The final simulation will be made available Saturday afternoon after practice/qualifying, which is set for 1:00 p.m. ET. That said, having to make my predictions at this point (which WILL change a bit on Sunday morning VSiN Newsletter), I would go with the following:
Top 5: Hamlin, Larson, Blaney, Reddick, Gibbs
Top underdogs to consider: Buescher, Jones, Briscoe, Wallace
Favorites to fade: Chastain, Bowman, Logano
The 200-lap event at Pocono Raceway is set for 3:00 p.m. ET on Sunday, the 14th of June.
Be sure to visit VSiN.com for this week’s full INITIAL SIMULATION. This is where you’ll find the sims all season long. While there, you can click on driver links for season stats and recent results, plus get current odds, and much, much more.
