Today we have a loaded slate of College Hoops midweek action with roughly 50-games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of big matchups using our VSiN CBB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.

 

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6:30 p.m. ET: Connecticut at Villanova (-1.5, 145)

Connecticut (12-3, ranked 9th) has won eight straight games and just outlasted Providence 87-84 but failed to cover as 14-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Villanova (10-5) has won seven of their last eight and just crushed DePaul 100-56, easily covering as 9-point home favorites.

This line opened with Connecticut listed as a 2.5-point road favorite. The public is rushing to the window to back the Huskies, who are receiving 72% of spread bets at DraftKings. However, despite Connecticut receiving such lopsided support we’ve seen this line completely flip to Villanova -1.5. This signals sharp reverse line movement on Villanova, as the line has moved in favor of the Wildcats despite being the highly unpopular play. At DraftKings, Villanova is only receiving 28% of spread bets but 37% of spread dollars, a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” split. Pros seem to specifically be targeting Villanova to win straight up on the moneyline (-120). At Circa, the Wildcats are only taking in 33% of moneyline bets but a whopping 89% of moneyline dollars, a massive sharp discrepancy in favor of Nova winning the game.

Villanova has fishy buy-low value as an unranked home favorite against a ranked opponent. The Wildcats also enjoy a one-day rest advantage, having last played on Saturday while the Huskies played on Sunday. Villanova has the superior three-point shooting (42% vs 37%) and offensive rebound percentage (36% vs 34%). The Wildcats are 8-1 at home this season. Connecticut will be without 2nd leading scorer Liam McNeeley (14 PPG), who is out several weeks with an ankle injury.

7 p.m. ET: Mississippi at Arkansas (-4, 148.5)

Mississippi (12-2, ranked 23rd) has won six of their last seven games and just edged Georgia 63-51, covering as 5-point home favorites. On the other hand, Arkansas (11-3) just saw their six-game win streak come to an end, getting rolled by Tennessee 76-52 and failing to cover as 11.5-point road dogs.

This line opened with Arkansas listed as a 3-point home favorite. Right off the bat, this opening line speaks volumes. Why is the unranked team favored over the ranked team, even assuming home-court advantage? Shouldn’t it be the other way around? Sharps have embraced the fishy home favorite Razorbacks, steaming Arkansas up from -3 to -4. At DraftKings, Arkansas is taking in 67% of spread bets but a hefty 95% of spread dollars, a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet split indicating public support but also heavy smart money on the home favorite. Those looking to follow the sharp Razorbacks move but also wary of a close Arkansas win that may not cover the number could instead play the home team on the moneyline at -190. At DraftKings, Arkansas is receiving 75% of moneyline bets and 92% of moneyline dollars, further evidence of pros playing the Razorbacks to win straight up.

Arkansas has buy-low value as an unranked home favorite off a blowout loss against a sell-high ranked road dog. Arkansas has the better effective field goal percentage (57% vs 53%). The Razorbacks are a perfect 8-0 at home.

9 p.m. ET: Texas A&M at Oklahoma (-3, 146)

Texas A&M (12-2, ranked 10th) has won eight straight games and just crushed Texas 80-60, cruising as 6.5-point home favorites. On the flip side, Oklahoma (13-1, ranked 17th) just suffered their first loss of the season, falling to Alabama 107-79 and failing to cover as 13-point road dogs.

This line opened with Texas A&M listed as a 2-point road favorite. The public sees two ranked teams facing off and doesn’t know whether to take the points or lay them. However, despite this split ticket count we’ve seen the line flip in favor of Oklahoma +2 to -3. In a vacuum, a line shouldn’t move at all if the bets are even because, theoretically, the oddsmakers have balanced action and no need to adjust the price. So, based on the “dog to favorite” line move we can infer that pro money is siding with the Sooners at home. The Aggies will also be without leading scorer Wade Taylor (16 PPG) due to an undisclosed injury. Sharps have specifically targeted Oklahoma to win straight up (-155). At DraftKings, the Sooners are taking in 56% of moneyline bets but a heavy 80% of spread dollars, further evidence of the bigger, sharper wagers playing Oklahoma to win the game.

Oklahoma has buy-low value as a home favorite off a blowout loss against a sell-high road dog on a prolonged win streak. When two ranked teams face off, the home favorite is 12-4 (75%) straight up this season and 146-40 (79%) straight up with a 15% ROI since 2021. Oklahoma has the better offensive efficiency (24th vs 39th), effective field goal percentage (56% vs 49%), three-point shooting (36% vs 31%) and free-throw shooting (81% vs 70%). Oklahoma is 8-0 at home this season. Texas A&M is 0-1 on the road.

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