Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Sunday, May 31, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Road teams on 5+ game losing streaks who just lost as favorites but are favored again have gone 33-15 SU (+11.97 units, ROI: 24.9%) since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (-114 at COL)
MLB Series Betting System #5: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a very good investment in the final game of a series if ending a road trip, going 382-420 but for +97.21 units and an ROI of 12.1% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MINNESOTA (+135 at PIT), LA ANGELS (+169 at TB), ARIZONA (+124 at SEA), PHILADELPHIA (+187 at LAD)
Trend: Over the total is 18-4-3 (+13.60 units) when MIA is a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MIA-NYM (o/u at 7.5)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 regular season, I found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating AND starting pitcher rating have gone 207-139 for +48.41 units, and an ROI of +14.0%! The two-year record on this angle is now 396-266 for +83.41 units and an ROI of 12.6%. This has proven to be a very good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically. It should be a part of your handicapping routine going forward. For 2026, these teams are off to a modest 101-80 start for -4.21 units and an ROI of -2.3%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON (-102 at CLE), NY METS (-156 vs MIA), SEATTLE (-144 vs AZ)
STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS
Teams with elite starting pitchers (SM rating higher than 25) and a NEGATIVE SM team bullpen rating in a game went 65-69 for -22.93 units when not matched up against similar in 2025. This represents an ROI of -17.1% and it stands as proof of my belief that the strength of a team’s bullpen has to be accounted for in all games. This is a go against angle, which can often prove as or more valuable than systems that suggest backing teams. For 2026, these teams are 14-13 for -1.70 units and an ROI of -6.3%.
System Match (SLIGHT FADE): TAMPA BAY (-207 vs LAA)
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse wound up 184-226 for -38.36 units for the season when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -9.4%. This is another angle that shows that good bullpens are better support for good starting pitching. This is another go against angle that does well. To start the 2026 season, these teams are again struggling, 36-48 for -15.60 units and an ROI of -18.6%!
System Matches (FADE ALL): SAN DIEGO (-115 at WSH), PHILADELPHIA (+187 at LAD), CHICAGO CUBS (-102 at STL)
Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse went 148-267 for -34.71 units when not matched up against the same in 2025. This represented an ROI of -8.4%, another solid fade angle! For 2026, they are off to a rare positive start, 67-80 for +8.76 units. I still don’t expect this to last long.
System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON (-105 vs SD), LA ANGELS (+169 at TB), HOUSTON (+159 vs MIL), COLORADO (-105 vs SF), ST LOUIS (-118 vs CHC)
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In the last three regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 427-241 record, but for -131.5 units. This has been an ROI of -19.7%! The 2025 record was 120-59 for -13.3 units. The 2026 record so far is 28-11 for +2.18 units and an ROI of +5.6%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MILWAUKEE (-193 at HOU), LA DODGERS (-231 vs PHI)
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and a winning percentage >=19% higher than the opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. After a 133-43 finish for +25 units in the 2025 season, this angle will take a three-year record of 385-146 for +33.01 units (ROI 6.2%) into the 2026 campaign. The 2026 teams meeting this criteria are 29-16 but for -10.65 units so far. Be cautious with this one.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): TAMPA BAY (-207 vs LAA)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for in the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%! The 2026 season is off to a slower start, 110-131 for -9.18 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TORONTO (+113 at BAL), BOSTON (-102 at CLE), DETROIT (+109 at CWS), CHICAGO CUBS (-102 at STL)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. In the 2023-2025 regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 648-696 for -59.7 units, an ROI of -4.4%. For 2026, they are off to a 68-77 start for -1.66 units (ROI -1.1%). Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last three regular seasons with record of 293-318 for -26.2 units. ROI on that was -4.3%. This has been a very consistent angle historically, and the 2026 results so far show a record of 33-43 for -8.22 units and an ROI of -10.8%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): 2-games – COLORADO (-105 vs SF)
3+ games – CHICAGO WHITE SOX (-136 vs DET)
Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
Around midseason of 2025, I went back and found that teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games had proven to be a nice fade system. For the full 2025 campaign, they wound up 195-269 for -29.1 units, an ROI of -6.3%. We will continue to track this angle in 2026, and it is now 59-69 for -2.95 units.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MINNESOTA (+135 at PIT), MIAMI (+129 at NYM), CINCINNATI (+104 vs ATL), KANSAS CITY (-102 at TEX)
MLB Series Systems
The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025, regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.
MLB Series Betting System #2: Teams wrapping up a series and riding at least a three-game losing streak are 434-458 but for +27.02 units and an ROI of 3.4% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MINNESOTA (+135 at PIT), MIAMI (+129 at NYM), CINCINNATI (+104 vs ATL), DETROIT (+113 at CWS), SAN FRANCISCO (-112 at COL), KANSAS CITY (-105 at TEX)
MLB Series Betting System #5: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a very good investment in the final game of a series if ending a road trip, going 382-420 but for +97.21 units and an ROI of 12.1% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MINNESOTA (+135 at PIT), LA ANGELS (+169 at TB), ARIZONA (+124 at SEA), PHILADELPHIA (+187 at LAD)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing betting systems for teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
Home teams off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of 7 runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 7+ seasons, going 450-433 (51%) for +18.43 units of profit. This represents an ROI of 2.1%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TAMPA BAY (-207 vs LAA), CLEVELAND (-117 vs BOS)
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored 2 runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 2101-2675 (44%) for -271.62 units and an ROI of -5.7% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DETROIT (+113 at CWS), MIAMI (+129 at NYM), MILWAUKEE (-205 at HOU), ARIZONA (+124 at SEA)
Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 635-525 (54.7%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +26.75 units, for an ROI of 2.3%.
System Match (PLAY): ST LOUIS (-118 vs CHC)
Hitting a lot of home runs has a carryover effect for home favorites
Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit 4 or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 6+ seasons, going 377-190 (66.5%) for +51.16 units and an ROI of 9%!
System Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (-149 vs AZ)
Bats revert to the mean after high-scoring outing
Teams having scored 7+ runs the previous day have slowed down when playing as day game intraleague underdogs/pick ’ems with high totals (>= 9.5), as Under the total is 141-101-17 (58.3%) since the end of July 2021.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): SF-COL (o/u at 11)
Poor pitching on the season = good bet as underdog?
Teams who lost their last game after giving up 15+ hits and allow >= 4.6 RPG on the season have surprisingly been good wagers in the next game as underdogs in the -109 to +215 line range, sporting a record for 188-224 SU record for +37.36 units and an ROI of 9.1% since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (+135 at PIT)
MLB Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios.
MLB Team Strength Betting System #1:
MLB road favorites of -115 or more and winning <= 0.38% of their games have gone 75-44 SU for +15.32 units (ROI: 12.9%) since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): NONE YET BUT WATCH FOR SAN FRANCISCO at COL (-114 CURRENTLY)
MLB Team Strength Betting System #4:
Early season (March/April/May) road underdogs between +100 and +160 coming off a loss have gone 531-608 SU but for +71.47 units (ROI: 6.3%) since the start of the 2021 season (including 177-198 SU for +32.22 units in the last 375 divisional games).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TORONTO (+108 at BAL), DETROIT (+113 at CWS), MIAMI (+129 at NYM), ARIZONA (+124 at SEA), MINNESOTA (+135 at PIT)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays detail different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Road teams on 5+ game losing streaks who just lost as favorites but are favored again have gone 33-15 SU (+11.97 units, ROI: 24.9%) since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (-114 at COL)
Winning Streak Betting System #3:
The teams with some of the best value in looking to extend winning streaks are actually those that don’t score a lot of runs, typically. Teams on winning streaks of 5 games and scoring less than 4.5 RPG are 186-154 (+10.38 units, ROI: 3.1%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (-149 vs AZ)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: SAN FRANCISCO -114 (+43 diff), ATLANTA -131 (+24), SAN DIEGO -120 (+16)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: MIN-PIT OVER 7.5 (+0.5), BOS-CLE OVER 7 (+0.5), MIL-HOU OVER 7.5 (+0.5), KC-TEX OVER 7.5 (+0.5), CHC-STL OVER 8.5 (+0.5)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: PHI-LAD UNDER 9 (-0.8), SF-COL UNDER 11 (-0.5)
Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.
(901) SAN DIEGO (32-25) at (902) WASHINGTON (30-29)
Trend: Griffin Canning’s teams are 3-12 (-10.07 units) when he starts on the ROAD in the +105 to -130 line range in the last 6+ years
Trend Match (FADE): SAN DIEGO (-114 at WSH)
(903) MIAMI (26-33) at (904) NEW YORK-NL (25-33)
Trend: Over the total is 18-4-3 (+13.60 units) when MIA is a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MIA-NYM (o/u at 7.5)
(905) ATLANTA (40-19) at (906) CINCINNATI (29-28)
Trend: ATL is 23-9 (+16.91 units) on the run line in road games this season
Trend Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (-1.5 at CIN)
Trend: CIN is 26-17 (+4.58 units) at home with Nick Lodolo in his career
Trend Match (PLAY): CINCINNATI (+105 vs ATL)
(907) SAN FRANCISCO (22-36) at (908) COLORADO (22-37)
Trend: SF is 23-11 (+13.24 units) against NL teams with starter Robbie Ray since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (-114 at COL)
Trend: Under the total is 19-8 (+10.25 units) when SF is favored with starter Robbie Ray since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): SF-COL (o/u at 11)
(913) TORONTO (29-30) at (914) BALTIMORE (27-32)
Trend: BAL is 7-13 (-7.59 units) in the last 20 home divisional starts by Kyle Bradish
Trend Match (FADE): BALTIMORE (-137 vs TOR)
(915) BOSTON (24-33) at (916) CLEVELAND (34-26)
Trend: Ranger Suarez’s teams are 20-11 (+9.12 units) when he starts in line range -115 to +115 in the last 3+ seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): BOSTON (-102 at CLE)
(917) LOS ANGELES-AL (23-36) at (918) TAMPA BAY (35-20)
Trend: TB is 20-6 (+12.77 units) in home games this season
Trend Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (-207 vs LAA)
(919) DETROIT (22-37) at (920) CHICAGO-AL (31-27)
Trend: DET is 8-23 (-17.96 units) in road games this season
Trend Match (FADE): DETROIT (+109 at CWS)
(921) KANSAS CITY (22-36) at (922) TEXAS (27-31)
Trend: Under the total is 17-8-2 (+8.20 units) in TEX home games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): KC-TEX (o/u at 7.5)
(927) MILWAUKEE (34-21) at (928) HOUSTON (27-33)
Trend: Over the total is 18-9-1 (+8.10 units) in HOU home games this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MIL-HOU (o/u at 7.5)
(929) ARIZONA (31-26) at (930) SEATTLE (30-29)
Trend: SEA is 11-20 (-7.57 units) on the run line in home games this season
Trend Match (FADE): SEATTLE (-1.5 vs AZ)
Top Head-to-Head Series MLB Betting Trends
Series #17: San Francisco at Colorado, Fri 5/29-Sun 5/31
Trend: COLORADO is 11-37 (22.9%, -20.79 units) in their last 48 games vs. San Francisco
– The ROI on this trend is -43.3%
Trend Match (FADE): COLORADO (-105 vs SF)
Series #33: Detroit at Chicago White Sox, Fri 5/29-Sun 5/31
Trend: DETROIT has won 14 of its last 19 (73.7%, +6.19 units) games when visiting the Chicago White Sox
– The ROI on this trend is 32.6%
Trend Match (PLAY): DETROIT (+113 at CWS)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8.5% 3-year returns on all side majorities, and -3.4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of the 2023 season, this “super” majority group has fared quite well, going 282-127 (68.9%) for +27.68 units and an ROI of +6.8%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by over 15%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO WHITE SOX
DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Similarly to #2, Majority handle groups have been steady when not too many of them hop on an underdog side since the beginning of the 2024 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 51-66%. These groups have gone 289-312 (48.1%) for a very minimal -1.8 units loss and an ROI of -0.3%. This represents an improvement of 8.2% on the overall numbers, and gives bettors a chance to stay afloat when they go against the grain.
System Matches (CONSIDER ALL): TORONTO, WASHINGTON, BOSTON, CHICAGO CUBS
DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: For as good as majority handle bettors have been on huge home favorites since the beginning of last season, they are equally as bad on heavy road favorites of -200 or higher. This group is 156-81 (65.8%) for -37.06 units and an ROI of -15.6%. This has proven to be a brutal way to drain a bankroll quickly.
System Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 1074-957 (52.9%) but for -215.64 units and an ROI of -10.6%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return on a huge sample of games and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PITTSBURGH, MILWAUKEE, SEATTLE
DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 360-329 (52.2%) for -118.41 units and an atrocious ROI of -17.2%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since the lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY METS, SEATTLE
Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next one tomorrow, June 1)
