Today we wrap up the weekend and finish off the month of May with a loaded 15 game MLB slate to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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2:10 p.m. ET: Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Sox (-135, 8)
The White Sox (31-27) have won the first two games of this three-game series, taking the opener 4-3 in extra innings as a -110 home pick’em and then winning again yesterday 7-1 as a -105 home dog.
In this afternoon’s series finale, the Tigers (22-37) send out righty Keider Montero (2-3, 4.09 ERA) and the White Sox go with fellow righty Sean Burke (2-3, 3.90 ERA).
This line opened with Chicago listed as a -130 home favorite and Detroit a +110 road dog.
Sharps have quietly sided with the White Sox to earn another victory and complete the sweep, pushing the South Siders up from -130 to -135.
At DraftKings, Chicago is receiving 76% of moneyline bets and 90% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, the White Sox are taking in 80% of moneyline bets and a whopping 95% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a wiseguy “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy in favor of the modest home chalk.
Above .500 home favorites off a win priced -155 or less, like Chicago here, are 60-35 (63%) with a 12% ROI this season. Above .500 home favorites priced -140 or less facing a below .500 team have gone 30-15 (67%) with a 21% ROI this season.
The White Sox have correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (8), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win.
The White Sox are 19-11 at home. The Tigers are 8-23 on the road, the worst road record in MLB.
3:10 p.m. ET: San Francisco Giants (-115, 11) at Colorado Rockies
The Rockies (22-37) have taken the first two games of this three-game series, winning the opener 8-6 as +130 home dogs and then winning again yesterday 8-3 as -105 home dogs.
In this afternoon’s series finale, the Giants (22-36) hand the ball to lefty Robbie Ray (3-6, 4.60 ERA) and the Rockies counter with righty Tanner Gordon (0-0, 5.85 ERA).
This line opened with San Francisco listed as a -130 road favorite and Colorado a +110 home dog.
The public says there’s no way the Rockies win again and complete the sweep. As a result, 68% of moneyline bets at DraftKings are laying the chalk with the Giants.
However, despite the public pounding San Francisco we’ve seen the line fall away from the Giants (-130 to -115) and toward the Rockies (+110 to -105). This signals sharp reverse line movement in favor of Colorado at home.
At DraftKings, the Rockies are receiving 32% of moneyline bets but 69% of moneyline dollars, a “low bets, higher dollars” sharp contrarian split in favor of the home dog.
Home dogs off a win, like the Rockies here, are 73-68 (52%) with an 11% ROI this season. Divisional dogs off a win are 66-55 (55%) with a 21% ROI this season.
Colorado offers additional correlative betting value as a dog in a high total game (11), with the more expected runs scored leading to more variance and upset opportunities.
Ray has posted a 7.11 ERA in five May starts, giving up 20 earned runs in 25.1 innings pitched. He is 0-5 with a 6.84 ERA on the road.
7:20 p.m. ET: Chicago Cubs at St. Louis Cardinals (-115, 8.5)
This is the rubber match of a three-game series.
The Cardinals (30-26) won the opener 6-5, coming through as +110 home dogs. Then the Cubs (32-27) bounced back with a 6-1 victory yesterday, taking care of business as -130 road favorites.
In tonight’s Sunday Night Baseball series finale, the Cubs start lefty Jordan Wicks (0-1, 16.62 ERA) and the Cardinals turn to fellow southpaw Matthew Liberatore (2-3, 4.76 ERA).
This line opened with Chicago listed as a -115 road favorite and St. Louis a -105 home dog.
The public is split down the middle with nearly 50% of moneyline bets at DraftKings on both sides. However, despite this roughly 50/50 ticket split we’ve seen the line completely flip in favor of St. Louis, moving the Cardinals from a -105 home dog to a -115 home favorite.
Normally, in a vacuum, a line shouldn’t move at all if the bets are even because, theoretically, the oddsmakers have balanced action and no need to adjust the price either way. So, based on the “dog to favorite” line move we can infer that the sharper wagers have sided with the Cardinals at home.
Home favorites -140 or less, like the Cardinals here, are 157-115 (58%) with a 4% ROI this season.
Sunday Night Baseball home favorites are 186-104 (64%) with a 9% ROI since 2010.
