Tuley’s Takes on Sunday’s NCAA Tournament Second-Round Games:
We hope everyone had a great first round of the NCAA Tournament on Thursday and Friday as we did in the Tuley’s Takes home office (and running around to the sportsbooks here in Vegas as we love when readers/friends from all over the country come to town for March Madness).
As I wrote in Friday’s “takes” column, I thought Thursday could very well be chalky, and it was as favorites went 12-4 SU and 9-7 ATS. Those are the games that set up Saturday and Sunday’s second-round games (aka round of 32).
Connecticut +9.5 vs. Florida
Sunday, 12:10 p.m. ET
A lot of people have jumped on the Florida bandwagon after the Gators run to win the SEC conference tournament, and rightly so. However, while this UConn isn’t as good or as deep as they’ve been, the two-time defending champs aren’t going to go down without a fight. This line is set too high as we just need the Huskies to stay within single digits. Florida is the No. 1 offensive team in the country, so we have to respect that, but UConn is No. 15, so don’t sell the Huskies short just because they’re not as dominant as the last two years. But what I really like is that UConn is ranked No. 343 in Adjusted Tempo (possessions per 40 minutes) at kenpom.com and can certainly slow down the pace and muddy up the game. I’m pretty sure the Gators won’t be able to put up 95 points like they did against Norfolk State. I have this game with both teams in the 70s. I also have some on the money line with UConn at +405 in case the Huskies are able to pull off the outright upset, but still believe the better bet is taking the points.
New Mexico +7 vs. Michigan State (Under 148)
Sunday, 8:40 p.m. ET
As chalky as the tournament has been so far, we’re still trusting the process with our “dog or pass” approach. Later Sunday (the next-to-last game of the second round), Michigan State takes on New Mexico, a No. 10 seed fresh off an upset of No. 7 Marquette. Tom Izzo has his Spartans peaking per usual at tourney time, so this is a much tougher task for New Mexico, but I’ll still take the points. Actually, the main reason I like the dog here is that my stronger opinion is on the Under 148, as I have Michigan State winning just 71-68 (9 points below the posted total, which is the biggest edge I see this round). Just about every season, I have people asking my opinion on Over/Unders, and my standard response is, “When my straight bets are doing well, I usually just concentrate on those … but when I’m struggling, that’s when I diversify my portfolio.” Well, we all know how favorites have been dominating early in this tournament, so it shouldn’t surprise anyone that I’ve been looking to bet more totals (and that usually means Unders, which were 21-11 in the first round). New Mexico can push the pace, but both teams are stronger on the defensive end, with Michigan ranked No. 5 in defensive efficiency and New Mexico at No. 18. This should turn into more of a half-court game with longer possessions and keep the score relatively low (and hopefully close as well). But put me down for Under 148 as my Best Bet.
