Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Tuesday, June 23, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
* In 2026, small favorite teams in the -111 to -126 line range with a SM Bullpen Rating edge have gone 128-81 for +31.57 units, an ROI of +15.1%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY METS (-119 vs. CHC), ATLANTA (-114 at SD), NY YANKEES (-114 at DET), CLEVELAND (-114 at CWS), SEATTLE (-126 at PIT)
Trend: WSH is 19-4 (+14.68 units) on the run line vs. left-handed starters this season
Trend Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (+1.5 vs. PHI)
Trend: BALTIMORE has won 23 of its last 29 games (79.3%, +17.43 units) against LA Angels
— The ROI on this trend is 60.1%
Trend Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (-144 at LAA)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 regular season, teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating AND starting pitcher rating have gone 207-139 for +48.41 units, and an ROI of +14.0%. The two-year record on this angle is now 396-266 for +83.41 units and an ROI of 12.6%. This has proven to be a very good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically. It should be a part of your handicapping routine going forward. For 2026, these teams are teetering around the profitability line at 129-102 for -3.08 units and an ROI of -1.3%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY METS (-119 vs. CHC), ARIZONA (-105 at STL), CLEVELAND (-114 at CWS)
STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse wound up 184-226 for -38.36 units for the season when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -9.4%. This is another angle that shows that good bullpens are better support for good starting pitching. This is another go-against angle that does well. To start the 2026 season, these teams are again struggling, 41-75 for -36.95 units and an ROI of -31.9%.
System Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (-109 at CIN)
Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse went 148-267 for -34.71 units when not matched up against the same in 2025. This represented an ROI of -8.4%, another solid fade angle. For 2026, they are off to a rare positive start, 83-104 for +4.83 units. This is lasting longer than I would expect.
System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON (+143 vs. PHI), ST LOUIS (-115 vs. AZ), KANSAS CITY (+159 at TB), MINNESOTA (+149 vs. LAD), COLORADO (+136 vs. BOS), ATHLETICS (+118 at SF)
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In the last three regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better-rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 427-241 record, but for -131.5 units. This has been an ROI of -19.7%. The 2025 record was 120-59 for -13.3 units. The 2026 record is 37-20 for -7.72 units, ROI of -13.5%.
System Match (FADE): TAMPA BAY (-194 vs. KC)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick-’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%. The 2026 season is off to a slower start, 153-195 for -24.44 units. This ROI of -7% is still highly advantageous to blind wagering, just not what we’ve come to expect … yet.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE (-109 at CIN), ARIZONA (-105 at STL), LA ANGELS (+119 vs. BAL), ATHLETICS (+118 at SF)
Better bullpen small favorite teams in -111 to -126 range are thriving in 2026
In 2026, small favorite teams in the -111 to -126 line range with a SM Bullpen Rating edge have fared quite well. Last season, this was about a -6% ROI angle. However, there is some foundation to the system in that with teams this closely matched by the oddsmakers, it can often be good bullpen performance that separates the teams. For 2026, these teams are 128-81 for +31.57 units, an ROI of +15.1%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY METS (-119 vs. CHC), ATLANTA (-114 at SD), NY YANKEES (-114 at DET), CLEVELAND (-114 at CWS), SEATTLE (-126 at PIT)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
Fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. In the 2023-2025 regular seasons, teams on two-game winning streaks with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 648-696 for -59.7 units, an ROI of -4.4%. For 2026, they are off to a 98-121 start for -18.02 units. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last three regular seasons with a record of 293-318 for -26.2 units. ROI on that was -4.3%. This has been a very consistent angle historically, and the 2026 results so far show a record of 41-56 for -14.78 units and an ROI of -15.2%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): 2 games – TEXAS (+135 at MIA), ST LOUIS (-115 vs. AZ)
3+ games – DETROIT (-105 vs. NYY), BALTIMORE (-144 at LAA)
Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
Last year, I found that teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games had proven to be a nice fade system. In 2025, they wound up 195-269 for -29.1 units, an ROI of -6.3%. We will continue to track this angle in 2026, and it is now 76-80 for +6.51 units.
System Match (FADE): SAN FRANCISCO (-142 vs. ATH)
MLB Series Systems
The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025, regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.
MLB Series Betting System #3: Small road favorites of -111 to -130 have been a solid wager in the opening game of a new series, going 235-179 for +16.69 units and an ROI of 4% since the start of the 2022 season.
System Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (-126 at PIT)
MLB Series Betting System #7: Small home favorites of -111 to -180 have been terrible in the first game of any homestand, going 422-357 but for -82.49 units and an ROI of -10.6% since the start of the 2022 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY METS (-119 vs. CHC), SAN FRANCISCO (-142 vs. ATH)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing betting systems for teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
Consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last game. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 2,140-2,721 (44%) for -277.26 units and an ROI of -5.7% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): KANSAS CITY, PHILADELPHIA, HOUSTON, MILWAUKEE, LA DODGERS, ARIZONA, BOSTON, ATLANTA
Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra-base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 647-533 (54.8%) record in the next game when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +28.59 units, for an ROI of 2.4%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CINCINNATI (-110 vs. MIL), ST LOUIS (-115 vs. AZ)
MLB Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios.
MLB Team Strength Betting System #3:
In MLB games with high totals (>= 10.5), underdogs between the +116 to +180 line range have gone 227-260 SU but for +48.94 units (ROI: 10%) since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): COLORADO (+136 vs. BOS)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: SAN DIEGO -105 (+23 diff), LA ANGELS +119 (+20)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: NY METS -119 (+44 diff), SEATTLE -126 (+29), BOSTON -164 (+17)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: LAD-MIN OVER 9 (+0.9), CLE-CWS OVER 7 (+0.6), PHI-WSH OVER 8.5 (+0.5)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: MIL-CIN UNDER 10 (-0.5), CHC-NYM UNDER 8.5 (-0.5), ATL-SD UNDER 8.5 (-0.5), ATH-SF UNDER 9 (-0.5)
Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.
(951) PHILADELPHIA (42-36) at (952) WASHINGTON (41-38)
Trend: Over the total is 28-11-1 (+15.90 units) in WSH night games this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): PHI-WSH (o/u at 8.5)
Trend: WSH is 19-4 (+14.68 units) on the run line vs. left-handed starters this season
Trend Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (+1.5 vs. PHI)
(953) MILWAUKEE (47-29) at (954) CINCINNATI (37-40)
Trend: CIN is 4-1 vs. Milwaukee (+4.15 units) with starter Nick Lodolo in his career
Trend Match (PLAY): CINCINNATI (-110 vs. MIL)
(955) CHICAGO-NL (40-37) at (956) NEW YORK-NL (34-43)
Trend: Edward Cabrera’s teams are 20-15 (+7.53 units) when he starts as a shorter underdog -105 to +135 in the last 4+ seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): CHICAGO CUBS (-102 at NYM)
(959) ATLANTA (48-29) at (960) SAN DIEGO (40-37)
Trend: ATL is 32-22 (+14.06 units) on the run line in night games this season
Trend Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (-1.5 at SD)
(961) HOUSTON (37-43) at (962) TORONTO (39-39)
Trend: Under the total is 4-0 (+4.00 units) when Shane Bieber starts against Houston in his career
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): HOU-TOR (o/u at 8.5)
(965) KANSAS CITY (33-46) at (966) TAMPA BAY (43-32)
Trend: KC is 4-17 (-15.49 units) vs. left-handed starters this season
Trend Match (FADE): KANSAS CITY (+159 at TB)
(967) CLEVELAND (41-38) at (968) CHICAGO-AL (40-37)
Trend: Under the total is 3-0 (+3.00 units) when Sean Burke starts against Cleveland in his career
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CLE-CWS (o/u at 7)
(971) SEATTLE (40-39) at (972) PITTSBURGH (39-39)
Trend: SEA is 24-11 (+6.93 units) as a road favorite of -125 or higher with George Kirby in the last 3+ seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (-126 at PIT)
(973) TEXAS (38-40) at (974) MIAMI (40-39)
Trend: Cal Quantrill’s teams are 25-28 (+12.62 units) when he starts as an underdog of +135 or more in the last 5+ seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): TEXAS (+135 at MIA)
(975) LOS ANGELES-NL (50-29) at (976) MINNESOTA (38-42)
Trend: Over the total is 27-12-4 (+13.80 units) in MIN night games this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): LAD-MIN (o/u at 9)
(977) BOSTON (31-45) at (978) COLORADO (31-48)
Trend: BOS is 19-33 (-10.95 units) on the run line as a ML favorite this season
Trend Match (FADE): BOSTON (-1.5 at COL)
(979) ATHLETICS (38-40) at (980) SAN FRANCISCO (31-46)
Trend: Aaron Civale’s teams are 25-12 (+6.97 units) when he starts against teams with a < 43% win pct in the last 6+ seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): ATHLETICS (+118 at SF)
Trend: SF is 20-11 (+8.69 units) in night games with starter Robbie Ray since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (-142 vs. ATH)
Trend: Under the total is 19-10 (+8.10 units) when SF is favored with starter Robbie Ray since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): SF-ATH (o/u at 9)
Top Head-to-Head Series MLB Betting Trends
Series #25: Baltimore at LA Angels, Mon 6/22-Wed 6/24
Trend: BALTIMORE has won 23 of the last 29 games (79.3%, +17.43 units) against LA Angels.
— The ROI on this trend is 60.1%
Trend Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (-144 at LAA)
Series #33: Milwaukee at Cincinnati, Mon 6/22-Wed 6/24
Trend: MILWAUKEE is on an extended 33-13 (71.7%, +17.99 units) run versus Cincinnati in head-to-head play.
— The ROI on this trend is 39.1%
Trend Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (-109 at CIN)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8.5% three-year returns on all side majorities, and -3.4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the HOME side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of the 2023 season, this “super” majority group has fared quite well, going 282-127 (68.9%) for +27.68 units and an ROI of +6.8%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by over 15%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TAMPA BAY, MIAMI
DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Similarly to #2, majority handle groups have been steady when not too many of them hop on an underdog side since the beginning of the 2024 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 51-66%. These groups have gone 289-312 (48.1%) for a very minimal -1.8 units loss and an ROI of -0.3%. This represents an improvement of 8.2% on the overall numbers and gives bettors a chance to stay afloat when they go against the grain.
System Matches (CONSIDER ALL): PITTSBURGH, ATHLETICS
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 1,074-957 (52.9%) but for -215.64 units and an ROI of -10.6%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return on a huge sample of games and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MIAMI, PITTSBURGH, LA DODGERS, BOSTON, ATHLETICS
DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 360-329 (52.2%) for -118.41 units and an atrocious ROI of -17.2%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since the lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Match (FADE): NY METS
Team-Specific Momentum-Building/Letdown Angles
The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
ATHLETICS
Letdown after series vs. LA ANGELS: 14-22 (38.9%) -11.40 units, ROI: -31.7%
Trend Match (FADE): ATHLETICS (+118 at SF)
