Scotland vs Brazil | 2026 FIFA World Cup Group C | Wednesday, June 24 | 6PM EST | Hard Rock Stadium | Miami Gardens
Scotland (+650) | Draw (+425) | Brazil (-255)
Over 2.5 Goals (-115) | Under 2.5 Goals (-105)
Scotland +1.5 (-130) | Brazil -1.5 (+105)
Wednesday evening Group C comes to a close as Scotland vs Brazil kicks off at 6PM EST in Miami.
Carlo Ancelotti’s side arrive full of momentum after a 3-0 dismantling of Haiti — Matheus Cunha’s brace pushed Brazil past Germany as the all-time World Cup scoring leaders with 240 goals, and Vinícius Júnior was devastating on both sides of the ball, creating the opener before capping the rout himself in first-half stoppage time.
Scotland showed character in defeat to Morocco — Clarke’s men recovered from Saibari’s brutal second-minute opener to finish the stronger side, with McGinn, McTominay and Gannon-Doak pushing hard for an equalizer that never came.
Brazil sit top of Group C on goal difference over Morocco and a win in Miami should clinch the group — Scotland are a point back and know a win books their ticket to the knockout phase. A draw should be enough for the Tartan Army to advance in this expanded 48-team format where 8 of 12 third-place teams qualify, making this a genuinely high-stakes showdown in South Florida.
SCOTLAND TEAM NEWS
Tierney’s withdrawal against Morocco was due to cramp and the Celtic player trained with the full squad on Sunday morning. That leaves Scotland with two injury doubts heading into Miami — Aaron Hickey and Scott McKenna, who both missed group training.
Right-back Hickey came off in the 1-0 win over Haiti and didn’t feature in the Morocco defeat. Centre-back McKenna has been managing a calf complaint throughout the tournament and is yet to play a minute. Lewis Ferguson has been absent through fatigue but is expected to keep his place in central midfield.
Captain Andrew Robertson, Hickey, Findlay Curtis and Kenny McLean have all collected a yellow card and a second one will see them suspended for the last 32 if Scotland progress.
Scotland Predicted Lineup 4-4-1-1
Manager: Steve Clarke
GK: A. Gunn
RB: N. Patterson | CB: G. Hanley | CB: J. Hendry | LB: A. Robertson (C)
RM: J. McGinn | CM: R. Christie | CM: L. Ferguson | LM: K. Tierney
AM: S. McTominay
CF: C. Adams
BRAZIL TEAM NEWS
Raphinha was forced off after 40 minutes against Haiti with a hamstring recurrence — the Barcelona winger’s tournament participation is now in doubt, though he hasn’t been removed from the squad officially. The Bournemouth teenager Rayan replaced him and is set to start in his place.
The bigger story may be Neymar: Ancelotti confirmed after the Haiti win that the icon will rejoin full training before Miami and declared him available for the Scotland match. Matheus Cunha’s brace should be enough to keep his name in the starting lineup despite intense pressure from Brazilian media for Ancelotti to start Endrick.
Casemiro, Roger Ibañez and Douglas Santos have all picked up yellow cards and will face a one-game suspension if they pick up another one.
Brazil Predicted Lineup 4-2-3-1
Manager: Carlo Ancelotti
GK: Alisson
RB: Danilo | CB: Marquinhos (C) | CB: Gabriel Magalhães | LB: D. Santos
CM: Bruno Guimarães | CM: Casemiro
RW: Rayan | AM: Lucas Paquetá | LW: Vinícius Júnior
CF: M. Cunha
MATCH BREAKDOWN
This is not the Brazil of old, where the squad was constructed from players plying their trade in La Liga and Serie A. Over the last few World Cups we’ve seen more and more of the squad playing their football in England, and this one’s spine is built on players who have lit up the Premier League.
Alisson between the sticks for Liverpool, Gabriel leading Arsenal’s defense, Bruno Guimarães orchestrating Newcastle’s midfield, former West Ham midfielder Lucas Paquetá operating as the No. 10 and Matheus Cunha — fresh off his brace against Haiti — leading the line for Manchester United. Casemiro partners Bruno, having just said goodbye to United and looking bound for Inter Miami, while teenager Rayan brings blistering pace on the wing for Bournemouth. Even the bench carries top-flight quality in Brentford’s Igor Thiago, Arsenal’s Gabriel Martinelli, former Liverpool midfielder Fabinho and more. That’s a core heavily experienced and capable of handling the intensity and physicality of English football — exactly the kind of contest Scotland will try to make this.
The Tartan Army arrive at this game with 3 points and a 48% chance of making the knockout phase as one of the third-placed nations (per The Athletic World Cup Bracket Tracker at the time of writing). A draw here would leave them on 4 points and 0 goal difference, which should be enough to see them progress.
Steve Clarke is not an adventurous manager, and he’s built this side on defensive pragmatism. Expect him to set up to defend deep and play for the draw, just as he did against Morocco, knowing a point likely secures Scotland’s route into the knockout phase. Going forward they’ll lean on a moment of McTominay or McGinn magic in the final third — Scotland don’t create much, so when they do threaten, it centers around their two most influential attacking players.
This is a great plan until Brazil scores. Ancelotti has built a side that can match Scotland physically but also carries the attacking invention to find space and pick apart a low block — and a bench with Endrick, Neymar and co. ready to ask different questions in the latter stages. Brazil have far too much creativity and quality to be denied for 90 minutes.
Once they breach that low block, Scotland have two options: come out and chase, much as they did in the closing stages against Morocco, or sit back and accept the defeat, banking on three points and a -1 goal difference being enough to sneak through as a third-placed side. Both options put them at risk of Brazil scoring another goal whether it be from sustained pressure or being caught in transition.
With 10 more groups undecided, I don’t think Clarke’s side will gamble on results elsewhere and go out with a whimper — they’ll want qualification in their own hands. That means stepping out of their half — and in doing so, conceding the one thing the Seleção crave: space to run into. That’s where it gets dangerous for the Tartan Army — Brazil’s pace on the break is built to punish exactly that, and chasing the game could be what turns a 1-0 defeat into a 2-0 or 3-0 one.
THE BET
Here we are in the bet section and I haven’t gone into detail about Vinícius Júnior yet. On his day, the Real Madrid winger is one of the best players on the planet — electric off the left, impossible to contain one-on-one, and the kind of match-winner who can settle a game like this in a single moment. His pace and trickery can fashion a chance for himself or take him to the byline for a cut back to a teammate. He scored against Morocco and set up one and scored another against Haiti. Against a Scotland side that’ll invite pressure and defend deep, he’s the player most likely to unlock it — and he’s available at -135 to register at least one goal or assist, a bet I’m backing.
Everything points to a Brazil win, but at -245 the Moneyline is at a price I’m not willing to play. Brazil -1.5 on the spread at +105 is my play of choice. Scotland will defend deep and play for the draw, but I don’t see that low block holding for 90 minutes — and once it breaks, I’m confident it breaks again.
Pick: Brazil -1.5 +105
Pick: Vinícius Júnior +1 Goals and Assists -135
