Super Bowl LVIII opening odds
After 272 regular season games and 12 playoff games, we are down to the final two teams and the countdown is on for Super Bowl LVIII in Las Vegas. It will be a rematch of Super Bowl LIV with the Kansas City Chiefs and the San Francisco 49ers. The Super Bowl opening odds on DraftKings Sportsbook showed the 49ers as a 2.5-point favorite with a total of 48. The first adjustments were to move to -2 and 47.5 and then the line settled in at 49ers -1 at time of publish.
We’ll now have two weeks to dissect every single detail about this game, but here are some initial thoughts on the line and where it could be likely to go.
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Super Bowl LVIII: Kansas City Chiefs vs. San Francisco 49ers (-1.5, 47.5)
Sunday, February 11, 6:30 p.m. ET
A lot will be made of the first Super Bowl meeting between these two teams back in 2020. Jimmy Garoppolo and the 49ers led 20-10 after three quarters, but 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan got very conservative and his team lost the fourth quarter by a 21-0 count to fall 31-20 and give Patrick Mahomes the first of his two Super Bowl victories.
It was a tale of two halves for both of these teams in the conference championship round. The Chiefs hung on for dear life against the Ravens, as their offense badly sputtered after two outstanding drives to begin the game. On the flip side, the 49ers overcame a 24-7 halftime deficit as their offense came alive and the Lions fell apart on both sides of the ball.
Super Bowl LVIII Spread
The “Mahomes as an underdog” trend will be talked about ad nauseam in the lead-up to this one, especially after beating both the Bills and Ravens in that role to get to this point. Mahomes is 10-1-1 ATS as an underdog and that includes nine outright upsets. Another one here and he’ll win his third Super Bowl in five seasons. Will the pull of the Chiefs and Mahomes as an underdog flip the favorite in this game?
It could based on what we’ve seen initially with the Chiefs moving from +2.5 to +1.5. The 49ers defense made some very good halftime adjustments against the Lions up until the final garbage-time drive, where Detroit marched down the field to get within the point spread with a 75-yard touchdown drive. The Lions had 280 yards in the first half and 167 yards in the second half, with the bulk of those on that last possession, but the 49ers defense looked extremely suspect, especially against the run. Bettors will be turned off by that.
That being said, the Chiefs scored all 17 of their points in the first half. They punted on all but one of their second-half possessions against Baltimore and mustered just 123 yards on 30 plays. A fumble at the goal line and an interception in the end zone saved Kansas City late in that game, as the Ravens mustered scoring chances, but ultimately had too many mistakes.
The initial money on Kansas City right after the line was posted didn’t surprise me and it wouldn’t shock me to see more of it come in as this line starts to mature.
Super Bowl LVIII Total
The Chiefs game went comfortably Under the total against the Ravens, while the 49ers game went comfortably Over against the Lions. Kansas City has been an ATM in terms of second-half Unders, which could certainly have an impact on how bettors approach the full-game total here.
This is an indoor game in Las Vegas, so weather won’t be a factor at all. With a touchdown and no interceptions in the win over the Ravens, Mahomes now has a 39/7 TD/INT ratio in 17 career playoff games. We saw some “YOLO” play from Brock Purdy and he’s known for his turnover-worthy plays, so it will be interesting to think about that part of the handicap and how it could impact the total. San Francisco could very well turn the ball over against a very good Chiefs secondary, but Mahomes really doesn’t have the weapons that he’s had in the past.
Mahomes has four TD passes in three playoff games this postseason. He had four back in the 2021 postseason when the Chiefs lost 31-9 to the Buccaneers in the Super Bowl, but he was compromised a bit with an ankle injury. In the 2022 postseason, he had 11 TD passes and had seven in last year’s postseason, including three in the Super Bowl win over the Eagles with just 182 passing yards.
The weakness of the Chiefs defense is against the run, something that Ravens OC Todd Monken inexplicably ignored. Shanahan won’t do the same with Christian McCaffrey and his ground attack, but will that be enough to produce a hefty amount of points?
I think this total could go either way, but my initial thought is that it slants towards the Under early on, with a move back up later in game week.
We will have full wall-to-wall coverage of Super Bowl LVIII on air and also at VSiN.com, so please keep it locked in right here.
