Today we wrap up the work week and kick off the 4th of July weekend with a loaded 13 game MLB slate to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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6:45 p.m. ET: Pittsburgh Pirates at Washington Nationals (-155, 9.5)
The Pirates (44-44) just split a four-game series against the Phillies, winning yesterday’s series finale 6-1 as +110 road dogs. On the other hand, the Nationals (45-43) just took two of three against the Red Sox, winning the series finale 10-2 as +125 road dogs.
In tonight’s series opener, the Pirates hand the ball to righty Mitch Keller (6-5, 4.87 ERA) and the Nationals counter with lefty Foster Griffin (8-2, 2.93 ERA).
This line opened with Washington listed as a -135 home favorite and Pittsburgh a +115 road dog.
Sharps have gotten down hard on the Nationals to take the series opener at home, steaming Washington up from -135 to -155.
At DraftKings, the Nationals are receiving 73% of moneyline bets and 88% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, Washington is taking in 93% of moneyline bets and over 95% of moneyline dollars. Both books are displaying a one-way “low bets, higher dollars” Pro and Joe bet split in favor of the home chalk.
Above .500 home favorites off a win priced -155 or less, like the Nats here, are 87-59 (60%) with a 5% ROI this season.
Washington enjoys a “rest vs tired” advantage, as the Nats were off yesterday while the Pirates played yesterday in Philadelphia.
Rested home favorites coming off a day off facing a team who played the previous day are 27-10 (73%) with a 24% ROI this season. Rested home favorites coming off a day off who missed the playoffs the previous season are 64-30 (68%) with a 13% ROI since 2025.
Griffin posted a 1.15 ERA in five June starts, allowing only 4 earned runs in 31.1 innings pitched. Washington is 13-4 in his 17 starts this season. He is 7-0 with a 2.35 ERA in night games.
On the other hand, Keller posted a 6.23 ERA in five June starts, giving up 18 earned runs in 26 innings pitched. He is 1-5 with a 6.46 ERA in night games.
8:15 p.m. ET: Tampa Bay Rays (-115, 9) at Houston Astros
The Rays (51-33) just swept the Royals, winning yesterday’s series finale 5-2 as -125 road favorites. Meanwhile, the Astros (43-46) just dropped two of three against the Twins, losing the series finale 8-3 as -160 home favorites.
In tonight’s series opener, the Rays tap righty Nick Martinez (7-2, 2.66 ERA) and the Astros go with fellow righty Spencer Arrighetti (7-4, 4.00 ERA).
This line opened at roughly a pick’em, with both sides listed around -110 odds.
Sharps have quietly sided with the Rays at a coin-flip price, as we’ve seen Tampa Bay creep up from -110 to -115.
At Circa, the Rays are taking in 90% of moneyline bets and 94% of moneyline dollars, a notable one-way “low bets, higher dollars” discrepancy in their favor from the wiseguys in the desert.
Friday night favorites are 102-53 (66%) with a 12% ROI this season.
The Rays are 29-15 (66%) with a 15% ROI against teams with a below .500 record, the best mark in MLB against losing teams.
Tampa Bay is 12-4 in Martinez’s 16 starts this season. He is 2-1 with a 2.18 ERA on the road and 5-1 with a 2.44 ERA in night games.
Meanwhile, Arrighetti posted a 9.00 ERA in five June starts, giving up 25 earned runs in 25 innings pitched. He has a 5.19 ERA at night compared to 2.20 during the day.
The Rays are 31-18 in night games. The Astros are 25-30.
9:40 p.m. ET: Miami Marlins at Athletics (-135, 10.5)
The Marlins (46-42) just split a four-game series against the Rockies, losing yesterday’s series finale 14-4 as -140 road favorites. Conversely, the Athletics (41-46) have dropped two of three against the Dodgers but avoided the sweep, winning the series finale 7-1 as +130 home dogs.
In tonight’s Interleague series opener, the Marlins go with righty Tyler Phillips (1-3, 3.02 ERA) and the Athletics tap fellow righty Jack Perkins (2-3, 6.00 ERA).
This line opened with the Athletics listed as a -125 home favorite and Miami a +105 road dog.
The public is largely split down the middle and can’t decide who to take. However, despite the roughly 50/50 moneyline ticket split at DraftKings we’ve seen the A’s creep up from -125 to -135.
Normally, in a vacuum, a line shouldn’t move at all if the bets are even because, theoretically, the oddsmakers have balanced action and no need to adjust the price one way or the other. So, based on the 10-cent line move we can infer that the bigger, sharper wagers have laid the chalk with the A’s.
Below .500 home favorites facing an above .500 team, like the A’s here, are 51-28 (65%) with a 10% ROI this season. Friday home favorites -150 or less who missed the playoffs the previous season are 31-14 (695) with a 23% ROI this season.
The A’s enjoy a “rest vs tired” advantage, as the Athletics were off yesterday while the Marlins played in Colorado yesterday.
Rested home favorites coming off a day off facing a team who played the previous day are 27-10 (73%) with a 24% ROI this season. Rested home favorites coming off a day off who missed the playoffs the previous season are 64-30 (68%) with a 13% ROI since 2025.
Phillips is 0-3 with a 5.67 ERA on the road compared to 1-0 with a 1.16 ERA at home.
