MLB Best Bets Today July 3
Another hot day on the diamond kicks off the weekend, as 26 of the 30 teams are slated to be in action. With the heat and humidity, there are some rain chances in Chicago, Cleveland, and Cincinnati, but the rest of the slate should be smooth sailing and the ball could be jumping in a lot of places. The four teams that have a rare Friday off are the Phillies, Royals, Tigers, and Rangers as World Cup games in Arlington and Kansas City take precedence.
I’ll be posting my daily best bets Monday-Saturday with a Sunday Night Baseball preview on Sunday, as all the day games make it tough to get something out with lead time out here in Las Vegas. All lines are from DraftKings and are current at the time of publish. Please take the initiative to SHOP AROUND for the best odds. It matters. A lot.
One new offering this baseball season is our Opta AI Player Prop Projections. They are for VSiN Pro Subscribers only, so you can check out our current offers here. Zachary Cohen will be using those projections and his own handicapping to write up MLB player props.
Greg Peterson will have his best bets posted the night before and you can also check out his daily lines to see what looks to be off-market. Steve Makinen has also released his updated Bullpen Betting Systems and DraftKings Splits Systems, plus he’ll have a daily analytics report.
Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats. Check out our MLB tools powered by Ballpark Pal: Strikeout Projections, Park Factors, and YRFI Report.
Here are the MLB best bets today for July 3:
Cardinals vs. Cubs Prediction
Pick: Under 10.5 (-102)
Apologies for not giving a whole lot of lead time on this one, but I like the Under on the North Side this afternoon. Yes, it’s going to be hot as hell and the hitting conditions look fantastic, but these are two really strong defensive teams behind a couple of ground ball merchants.
Andre Pallante has a 54% GB% and that’s actually the lowest of his career, but he’s done an even better job this season of limiting home runs, posting a 3.83 ERA with a 3.79 xERA and a 3.97 FIP over 89.1 innings of work. He’s cut his HR/FB% to 11.3% after last season’s 17.2%.
Recently-acquired David Peterson has a 50.2% GB%, which is down 4.5% from last season, but he’s still very good at suppressing home runs, despite what his 5.86 ERA and 4.85 xERA might suggest. Peterson got a massive upgrade going from the Mets to the Cubs from a defensive standpoint and allowed two runs on five hits with just two strikeouts over 5.2 innings last time out.
With lots of ground balls early and then the specialists late with higher strikeout potential, I think this one is worth a shot at the reduced juice price. The Cardinals are just 25th in wOBA over the last 14 days against LHP and Pallante cutting his walk rate this season is a big positive against the Cubs lineup.
Twins vs. Yankees Prediction
Pick: Twins 1st 5 Team Total Over 2.5 (+120)
The Twins have been swinging the sticks well lately, especially against RHP, posting a .307/.369/.516 slash with a .383 wOBA and a 146 wRC+ in their last 374 PA spanning 14 days. If we push that out to 30 days, they lead the league in wOBA at .373 with a .290/.349/.519 slash and a 139 wRC+. They’ve only struck out 16.8% of the time against RHP in those 750 PA.
Gerrit Cole worked 12.2 shutout innings in his return from the IL, but he’s struggled badly in his last five starts, posting a 6.12 ERA with a 4.33 xERA and a 5.95 FIP over 25 innings. He’s given up seven homers in that span and eight Barrels. Those starts have been against the Guardians (2x), White Sox, Tigers, and Red Sox. Now he gets a Twins lineup that has been peppering righties for a while.
Those other four teams over the last 30 days against RHP? 19th, 10th, 12th, and 26th in wOBA. Bit of a step up here and Cole’s been struggling. Plus, it’s going to be 96 at first pitch with a bit of a helping wind to RF.
Orioles vs. Reds Prediction
Pick: Orioles -123
The Orioles and Reds fire up a weekend set at GABP with Trevor Rogers vs. Brady Singer. The Reds have been bad for a long time now, as they got off to a good start early and won a bunch of one-run games, but once things regressed to the mean, they dropped like a rock and find themselves 13.5 games out in the NL Central. The Orioles are 13 games out in the AL East themselves, as they got off to a rough start and haven’t really hit a stride.
Somebody who has hit a stride, though, is Rogers, who has allowed just seven runs on 22 hits in his five June starts. He’s only allowed one home run in that span with a 2.05 ERA, 2.91 xERA, and a 2.62 FIP. He is more of a fly ball guy and his 4.27 xFIP is probably a turn-off for some, especially going to this ballpark on a hot night, but he’s only allowed a 4.5% Barrel%, so his command has been quite good.
Singer had been in a bit of a nice groove, but he’s coming off of a dud against the Pirates with five runs allowed on nine hits. Singer’s good starts seem more like aberrations than anything else, as he continues to allow a ton of hard contact with a below average K%. He’s got a 5.12 ERA with a 5.56 xERA and a 5.83 FIP, allowing a 41.2% Hard Hit% with a 10.9% Barrel%.
Like usual, Singer’s had all sorts of issues with lefties, as they’ve posted a .307/.362/.548 slash with a .392 wOBA. He’s also allowed a .496 SLG to RHB and a .364 wOBA. Usually he’s stronger in that split, but he only has 17 K in 134 PA against RHB.
The Orioles should also have the bullpen advantage in this one and throughout the series.
