Scores were definitely out there on Friday with some remarkably tame conditions for a British Open. One of those scores belonged to Lucas Herbert, whose 8-under 62 was enough to propel him into the solo lead after opening with an even-par 70. His lead of two shots over Cameron Young and Jackson Suber was the day’s biggest development, but another 8-under garnered a lot of attention, as Sam Burns posted a 62 to move up more than 100 spots and position himself in the top five. Burns shot 3-over on Thursday, but shook it off in impressive fashion.
A lot of players put forth good numbers below par on Friday and the weather isn’t really expected to pick up much, so we’ll have to see if officials at Royal Birkdale try to create some hardships of their own with the set on Saturday. While only Herbert, Burns, and Eric Cole really stood out, there were heavy handfuls of 3-under and 2-under showings. With moving day here, it should be a very, very interesting Saturday.
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VSiN’s golf experts offered their second-round observations and third-round predictions . . .
Matt Brown
The Open Day 2: The Leaderboard Is a Monster
Hit It Wherever You Want
Round 1 was DataGolf’s Bomb-O-Meter reading “favoring accurate drivers.” Round 2 reads “strongly favoring bombers,” which DataGolf flagged as “very different from what we typically see at this course.” That is about as much of a one-day reversal as you’ll see in that metric.
The proof is in the power conversion. On Thursday, a yard of driver skill was worth 0.3 yards per tee shot, which is why nobody could separate. On Friday it was worth 0.77 yards, slightly above Tour average. The bombers finally got paid.
And the field noticed. Average driving distance climbed from 279.7 in Round 1 to 284.4 in Round 2. Jim Furyk said on the broadcast that players are figuring out that hitting it far and chasing angles matters more than finding fairways. The numbers agree with him.
Accuracy did not matter. At all.
The Draw Bias Was Even Nastier Than Advertised
Called it Thursday, but it landed harder than projected. Round 2 conditions:
- Overall: +0.31
- Morning wave: -0.63
- Afternoon wave: +1.24
That’s a 1.87 stroke swing between waves. The projection was 0.9. The Thursday afternoon guys who flipped to the Friday morning wave got the best conditions and it showed.
Herbert and Burns Go Nuclear
Lucas Herbert shot 8-under to go from E to the outright lead at -8. He gained in all four strokes-gained categories: +3.30 putting, +2.11 around the green, +1.69 approach, +1.19 off the tee, for +8.29 total.
Sam Burns also shot 8-under, from +3 all the way to -5 and T6. Same story: +2.97 putting, +2.81 ARG, +2.38 approach, also +8.29 total. Left for dead on Thursday, right back in it.
The Leaderboard Is Absurd
Within four shots of Herbert…
| Pos | Player | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lucas Herbert | -8 |
| T2 | Jackson Suber | -6 |
| T2 | Cameron Young | -6 |
| T2 | Ryan Gerard | -6 |
| T5 | Bryson DeChambeau | -5 |
| T5 | Sam Burns | -5 |
| T5 | Si Woo Kim | -5 |
| T8 | Scottie Scheffler | -4 |
| T8 | Jon Rahm | -4 |
| T8 | Tommy Fleetwood | -4 |
| T8 | Robert MacIntyre | -4 |
| T8 | Matt Wallace | -4 |
| T8 | Bud Cauley | -4 |
| T8 | Thomas Detry | -4 |
| T8 | Alex Fitzpatrick | -4 |
| T8 | Francesco Molinari | -4 |
Five back at -3: JJ Spaun, Shane Lowry, Ludvig Aberg, Tyrrell Hatton, plus Pierceson Coody, Cameron John, Dan Brown, and Victor Perez.
And here’s the tell: the skill coefficient flipped from 0.75 in Round 1 to 1.17 in Round 2. Thursday, the good players couldn’t separate from anybody. Friday, they separated more than at a typical Tour stop. DataGolf credited a late flurry from Bryson, Fleetwood, Rahm, Scheffler, and Si Woo and tagged it #propertest. The cream rose. That’s why this board looks like this.
Farewell to the Chalk of All Chalk
Matt Fitzpatrick is gone. You had him. Your grandmother had him. He finished +4 and nowhere near the +1 cut line.
(Not to be confused with his brother Alex Fitzpatrick, who is at -4 and very much in this golf tournament.)
Other notables headed home: Aaron Rai, Jake Knapp, Tom Kim, Wyndham Clark, Justin Rose, Maverick McNealy, Joaquin Niemann, Viktor Hovland, Jason Day, and Jordan Spieth.
Cut Slam watch is over. Bryson (-7) and JJ Spaun (-3) both played their way in, which leaves Harry Hall (+4) as the lone man to miss the cut in all four majors this season, the 42nd player to pull that off since 1983.
Bryson Is Overpowering This Place
Bryson DeChambeau in Round 2: 313.5 yards off the tee, 57.1% fairways, 83.3% greens, +1.88 off the tee, 4-under. He’s at -5 and three back, but only because of a two-stroke penalty assessed after his round.
Cameron Young, to a lesser extent, same idea: 303.6 yards, 64.3% fairways, 83.3% greens, +1.22 off the tee, 3-under, sitting -6.
Scottie Can’t Putt It in the Ocean Either
Add Scottie Scheffler to the list. He shot 2-under while losing 2.02 strokes putting. Everything else was elite: +2.77 approach, +1.25 off the tee, +4.03 ball-striking, 88.9% greens in regulation.
He’s not back. He was never gone. Just has to get the flatstick going.
Everybody Is About to Get Aggressive
This is the big weekend read, and DataGolf did the work on the drivable par-4 5th. Through two rounds:
- Going for it: 140 attempts, 3.61 scoring average
- Laying up: 171 attempts, 3.91 scoring average
Three tenths of a shot, just for pulling driver. And critically, when they plotted it against driving distance skill, the lay-up line stayed below the go-for-it line across the entire spectrum. Short hitters, long hitters, doesn’t matter. Going was better for everyone.
The distance jumps back that up hole by hole. Biggest increases Friday: hole 5 (+20 yards), 10 (+12), 17 (+12), 2 (+10), 18 (+8).
No penalty for wayward as long as you avoid the bunkers. Expect the whole field to let it rip.
My Portfolio
Standing pat, and feeling okay about it.
If you follow me on the Twitter machine (@MattBrownM2), you saw I added Jackson Suber via a 25% boost and an off-market number that got him to 35/1. He’s -6 and T3. Still very much alive.
Scottie Scheffler (-4) is covered above.
Collin Morikawa (-2) shot even par with a closing stretch of bogey, bogey, birdie, double bogey. Ugly finish. But look at the profile: he hit 85.7% of his fairways and averaged 261.1 yards. On a day where Birkdale strongly favored bombers, he played the wrong game.
Sam Burns (-5) is the resurrection. Dead ticket Thursday night, T6 now.
The regret: I didn’t take Bryson at 70/1 when the forecast suggested this place might play to his skillset. That one’s going to sting if he closes.
Buckle Up
Stellar leaderboard, gettable golf course, and a field that just figured out it should be pulling the big stick. This thing is far from over.
Kelley Bydlon
We’re in for a fun weekend at the Open!
The second round at Royal Birkdale had a bit of everything. It was another day of light weather, but the course still showed enough teeth to send some big names packing to head to home early. Jordan Spieth, Maverick McNealy, Viktor Hovland, Matt Fitzpatrick, Wyndham Clark, and Justin Rose will all be missing the cut.
We also saw a couple of near record-setting performances with both Lucas Herbert and Sam Burns (woohoo) matching the major record of 62 in a single round. That round helped Herbert grab the lead heading into the weekend.
OH YEAH, and we have Bryson DeChambeau incident. Instead of being in solo second at -7, he was assessed a two-stroke penalty after his round was done.
So, Herbert is two shots up on Cameron Young and Jackson Suber, and then there are some major names looming with DeChambeau, Scottie Scheffler, Jon Rahm, Tommy Fleetwood, Luvid Aberg, and Shane Lowry.
The weekend weather still looks like it will be relatively calm, so I think some more low rounds are possible. I’m excited to see how this all plays out. Ya know, hopefully with a Burns or Collin Morikawa win, but it’s going to be a battle over the weekend.
I did add Ben Griffin as a live top 10 during the second round. Those odds haven’t really shifted much after only a 1-under round from him and I still like that bet. Top 20 probably a better bet, but I didn’t have that available to me at the time. He’s been a top-five Tee-To-Green player so far in the tournament but is struggling with the putter – his best club. I expect he gets better in that area over the weekend.
I’ll likely have some third round matchups up at vsin.com a little later tonight when odds are out.
Wes Reynolds
Day 2 at The Open Championship was filled with so much drama that Lucas Herbert, who had a shot at 61 had he parred the 18th, and Sam Burns both shooting 62 and becoming the fifth and sixth players respectively to score the lowest-ever round in the history of major championships.
The largest piece of theater occurred at the conclusion of the round when Bryson DeChambeau and R&A officials took a cart ride back out to the 5th hole to review him trampling down grass in the rough that could have improved his lie. It did appear to affect the area that would be in his backswing. While it looked unintentional, DeChambeau, who was at -7 and slated to be in Saturday’s final pairing with Herbert, was assessed a two-stroke penalty per Rule 8.1:
Player’s Actions That Improve Conditions Affecting the Stroke
To support the principle of “play the course as you find it,” this Rule restricts what a player may do to improve any of these protected “conditions affecting the stroke” (anywhere on or off the course) for the next stroke the player will make:
- The lie of the player’s ball at rest,
- The area of the player’s intended stance,
- The area of the player’s intended swing,
- The player’s line of play, and
- The relief area where the player will drop or place a ball.
At the conclusion of the post-round deliberation, DeChambeau went to the range to hit balls and presumably blow off steam. His agent commented that he has until the tee time tomorrow to decide on playing. I believe he will play and bet him at 12/1 (FanDuel). Before the ruling, he was the in-play favorite anywhere from +425 to +450. He is only three strokes behind the leader Herbert and is tied for 1st for Greens In Regulation (83.3%), No. 1 for Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green, and No. 2 for Strokes Gained: Off-The-Tee. The firm and fast conditions play right into his hands.
I foresee an even more motivated DeChambeau who, whether you love him or hate him, is still a fierce competitor.
However, there are plenty of other fierce competitors still in the running as well.
At -6 and two strokes behind Herbert are Jackson Suber and Ryan Gerard, who have both been close to winning on numerous occasions this 2026 season, and Cameron Young, the winner of THE PLAYERS and Cadillac Championships.
Burns and Si Woo Kim are both at -5 along with DeChambeau.
Plenty of other big games are also not out of this, including Scottie Scheffler, Jon Rahm, along with Tommy Fleetwood and Robert MacIntyre, who were two of our pre-tournament bets, all at -4.
I will have some matchup plays for Round posted Friday evening at VSiN.com/picks.
Matt Youmans
Scottie Scheffler’s putting problems are almost comical. How can the world’s No. 1 player miss so many short putts? It would be funny if I didn’t bet on him. But this is also why I took +810 on Scheffler before the tournament — he’s four strokes back in a tie for eighth, has not played great and still is the +580 favorite on the adjusted odds board at DraftKings. Scheffler’s mental issues on the greens have been going on all summer. He misses a 5-footer and shoots a death stare at his caddy. It’s getting old … but if he can find something Saturday and Sunday, he can win this or at least cash Top 10 bets.
My wagering positions in this British Open would look a lot better if Alex Fitzpatrick (-4) and Matt Fitzpatrick (+4) were trading places, speaking of one of my favorite movies. All things considered, I’m OK with the results so far with Scheffler, Robert MacIntyre, Tyrrell Hatton and Collin Morikawa in the hunt, although Morikawa was a walking clown show on the final four holes of his second round.
It’s usually gloomy in England and the DeChambeau situation is a dark cloud hanging over this event. The two-stroke penalty is a dubious decision, and the rules of golf can be ridiculous. I doubt Bryson will withdraw and don’t think he should, but we’ll see tonight.
Now, moving ahead to further action on a busy Friday, I plan to add a bet on Sam Burns at 14-1. I’ve been burned by Burns a few times in the past, but he’s in good form and should be a real threat to win. His second-round 62 included some lucky breaks, and players usually regress several strokes after a hot round like that, but if he shoots 67 or 68 on Saturday he’ll be there.
