Today the unofficial second half of the MLB regular season kicks off with a loaded slate of 15 games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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7:15 p.m. ET: Chicago White Sox at Toronto Blue Jays (-135, 8.5)
The White Sox (50-45) just swept the Athletics, winning the series finale 9-1 as -150 home favorites. On the other hand, the Blue Jays (45-51) just dropped two of three against the Padres, losing the series finale 5-4 as -125 road favorites.
In tonight’s series opener, the White Sox hand the ball to lefty Anthony Kay (6-4, 4.23 ERA) and the Blue Jays counter with righty Spencer Miles (4-1, 2.85 ERA).
This line opened with Toronto listed as a -130 home favorite and Chicago a +110 road dog.
Sharps have quietly sided with the Blue Jays laying modest chalk at home, pushing Toronto up from -130 to -135 or even -140 across the market.
At DraftKings, the Blue Jays are receiving 60% of moneyline bets and 65% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, Toronto is taking in 50% of moneyline bets and a whopping 98% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split in favor of the home chalk, especially the pros in Vegas.
Fishy buy-low sub .500 home favorites facing a sell-high above .500 opponent are 55-32 (63%) with an 8% ROI this season. Non-division favorites who made the playoffs the previous season in the opening game of a new series have gone 115-63 (65%) with an 8% ROI this season.
Favorites in the first game after the All Star Break are 195-116 (63%) with a 7% ROI since 2005. If those favorites are facing an opponent who also missed the playoffs the previous season, like the Blue Jays here, they improve to 157-85 (65%) with a 10% ROI since 2005.
Kay has posted a 5.94 ERA on the road compared to 3.06 at home.
The White Sox are 19-28 (40%) on the road, the 6th worst road record in MLB.
8:10 p.m. ET: San Diego Padres (-120, 10) at Kansas City Royals
The Padres (48-48) just took two of three against the Blue Jays, winning the series finale 5-4 as +105 home dogs. On the other hand, the Royals (38-59) just got swept by the Orioles, dropping the series finale 8-2 as +125 road dogs.
In tonight’s Interleague series opener, the Padres tap righty Michael King (6-7, 3.41 ERA) and the Royals start fellow righty Seth Lugo (3-6, 4.56 ERA).
This line opened at roughly a pick’em, with a few shops opening the Royals as high as a -120 home favorite and the Padres a +100 road dog.
Sharps have pounced on the Padres, steaming San Diego up to a -120 road favorite.
At DraftKings, the Padres are receiving 78% of moneyline bets and 93% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, San Diego is taking in 89% of moneyline bets and over 95% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a “low bets, higher dollars” one-way Pro and Joe bet split in favor of the road chalk.
Interleague road favorites in the first game of a new series, like the Padres here, are 28-16 (64%) with a 9% ROI this season.
Favorites in the first game after the All Star Break are 195-116 (63%) with a 7% ROI since 2005. If those favorites are facing an opponent who also missed the playoffs the previous season, like the Padres here, they improve to 157-85 (65%) with a 10% ROI since 2005.
King has posted a 2.25 ERA in two July starts, allowing only 3 earned runs in 12 innings pitched. He has a 2.35 ERA in night games compared to 4.98 during the day.
Meanwhile, Lugo has posted a 6.91 ERA in three July starts, allowing 11 earned runs in 14.1 innings pitched.
King also enjoys extra rest, as he is pitching on 9 days rest while Lugo is pitching on 5 days rest.
The Padres are 26-17 (61%) with a 16% ROI against below .500 teams, the 3rd best record in MLB against losing teams.
9:40 p.m. ET: Washington Nationals (-135, 10) at Athletics
The Nationals (48-49) just got swept by the Yankees, dropping the series finale 5-3 as -125 home favorites. Similarly, the Athletics (41-55) just got swept by the White Sox, losing the series finale 9-1 as +125 road dogs.
In tonight’s Interleague series opener, the Nationals send out righty Cade Cavalli (5-4, 3.83 ERA) and the Athletics go with lefty Gage Jump (3-4, 3.51 ERA).
This line opened at roughly a pick’em, with both sides listed around -110 odds.
Sharps have gotten down hard on the Nationals, steaming Washington up from a -110 road pick’em to a -135 road favorite.
At Circa, Washington is receiving 67% of moneyline bets and 84% of moneyline dollars, a one-way “low bets, higher dollars” split in their favor from the wiseguys in the desert.
Interleague road favorites in the first game of a new series, like the Nats here, are 28-16 (64%) with a 9% ROI this season.
Washington has the better bats, hitting .250 with 516 runs scored compared to the Athletics hitting .243 with 422 runs scored.
The Nationals are hitting .269 against lefties, 2nd best in MLB.
Meanwhile, Jump has posted a 6.20 ERA at home compared to 0.75 on the road.
Washington is 28-18 (61%) on the road, 3rd best in MLB. Meanwhile, the Athletics are 15-26 (37%) at home, the worst home record in MLB.
