John Deere Classic Picks, Best Bets and Golf Odds:
A week earlier, Viktor Hovland was still on the grounds during the U.S. Open at Shinnecock Hills, working on the driving range even after missing the cut. There was not much to be made of that considering that Hovland is known to constantly tinker with his golf swing and often change swing coaches. His pre-tournament price last week at The Travelers Championship was a market consensus of 40-1.
On Monday morning, Hovland defeated tournament favorite and World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler on the first hole of a playoff as both posted 21 under par into Sunday evening. Collin Morikawa, our closest competitor for an outright victory, shot a round of 61 on Sunday but fell one stroke short at 20 under.
Hovland led the field for Strokes Gained: Off-The-Tee and was second for Scrambling en route to his eighth career PGA Tour victory and first since the Valspar in March 2025. Meanwhile, Scheffler has now gone 23 weeks and 13 events without a victory. In that time, he has four runner-up finishes and eight top-5 finishes.
Most of the game’s elite players will be taking a week off before making the flight across the pond for preparation either off site or at the Genesis Scottish Open the week before to final major championship of the season at the British Open.
Some are still stateside to play the John Deere Classic this week in the Quad Cities.
This week’s headliners include Ben Griffin (14-1) and Keith Mitchell (22-1), who both finished inside the top 10 two weeks ago at the U.S. Open.
Chris Gotterup (16-1), a two-time winner in 2026, is here this week before defending his Scottish Open title next week.
Players below the 30-1 price range include Keegan Bradley (25-1), 2022 John Deere winner J.T. Poston, who cashed for us that year at 50-1, and Jackson Koivun (22-1), who makes his much-anticipated professional debut this week. Koivun, 21, has had his PGA Tour card since last May after leading the points for the PGA Tour University Accelerated program but continued his collegiate career (11 overall wins in three years) at Auburn University and led the Tigers to their second national championship in three years. War Eagle indeed.
Jordan Spieth (33-1), the 2013 and 2015 John Deere winner, Jacob Bridgeman (33-1), the Genesis winner, Eric Cole (33-1), runner-up at the Charles Schwab, Tom Kim (33-1), 3rd at the U.S. Open, Pierceson Coody (35-1) and Michael Thorbjornsen (35-1), a PGA Tour University Accelerated program graduate like Koivun, who was runner-up here two years ago.
Brian Campbell was last year’s John Deere winner as a 350-1 long shot. This year he is back at a shorter long-shot price but is still 250-1.
Other former John Deere winners playing this week include 2024 winner Davis Thompson (55-1), 2021 winner Lucas Glover (175-1), 2019 winner Dylan Frittelli (400-1), 2018 winner Michael Kim (55-1), 2012 winner Zach Johnson (200-1) and 2007 winner Jonathan Byrd (1000-1).
The Event
The John Deere Classic is customarily held the week before the British Open but moved up a week earlier four years ago because of the Scottish Open now being part of the official PGA Tour schedule.
The tournament’s history dates to 1971 when it was established as the Quad Cities Open. It began as a satellite event that year and became a full-time PGA Tour event the following year. Longtime host and late-night sidekick Ed McMahon served as the event’s host from 1975-1979. Numerous Midwest-based companies, including Miller Brewing Company and Hardee’s, sponsored the event before current sponsor John Deere took over in 1999. The event moved all around the Quad Cities in Illinois and Iowa before settling in 2000 at TPC Deere Run, located in Silvis, Illinois.
D.A. Weibring, who designed this week’s course, is a three-time winner of this tournament, as is Steve Stricker (2009, 2010, 2011). Two-time winners here include former PGA Tour commissioner Deane Beman (1971, 1972), Scott Hoch (1980, 1984), David Frost (1992, 1993) and Jordan Spieth (2013, 2015).
The Field
Although just eight of the OWGR Top 50 players are in this week’s John Deere Classic field, it is one of the deeper fields this event has had in recent years.
144 players tee it up for an $8.8 million purse with $1.584 million and 500 FedExCup points going to the winner.
The Course
TPC Deere Run opened in 2000 on land donated by the descendants of John Deere’s family. Located in Silvis, Ill., within the Quad Cities (Davenport and Bettendorf, Iowa; Rock Island and Moline, Ill.) region, TPC Deere Run was designed by five-time PGA Tour winner D.A. Weibring, who won the John Deere Classic three times.
The layout is a tree-lined parklands that plays as a par-71 of 7,327 yards.
The course presents some elevation changes, has 76 bunkers, and three water-hazard holes. There are some tight doglegs and sloping fairways here and players will, more often than not, have to use every club in the bag, but TPC Deere Run typically plays as one of the easier courses on the PGA Tour schedule (eighth easiest last year with an average round of 69.42 or -1.58 under par.)
The Bentgrass fairways are gettable (36-yard average width), but the main defense here is four inches of Kentucky Bluegrass/Fescue rough.
Players will be hitting into Bentgrass greens (5,500 square feet average) that will roll at an average of 12 feet on the stimpmeter.
The only notable recent change to the course was the fourth hole being redesigned. The fairway was narrowed, and three bunkers were added in the fairway landing area. The tee was moved back 30 yards to lengthen the hole. This change was needed to replace the iconic Hewitt Tree that was located in the middle of the fairway.
Here is the official scorecard for the 2026 John Deere Classic:
The course has three par-5s, four par-3s and 11 par-4s. The par-3s are longer and some of the most difficult holes on the course, with three of the four averaging over par. Eight of the par-4s are under 445 yards, so most players can take driver, then short iron or wedge. All three of the par-5s are 550-600 yards and should be reachable in two shots even with soft conditions.
Several TPC courses have correlation, mainly on agronomy, to TPC Deere Run, including TPC Craig Ranch (CJ Cup Byron Nelson), TPC River Highlands (Travelers), TPC Twin Cities (3M Open) and TPC Summerlin (Shriners). In addition, Detroit GC (Rocket Classic venue), CC Jackson (Sanderson Farms), Sedgefield (Wyndham) and Keene Trace (ISCO/Barbasol) also have various correlations to TPC Deere Run.
WQAD-TV 8, the ABC affiliate for the Quad Cities area provides a hole-by-hole drone video for all 18 holes.
Weather
The AccuWeather forecast shows a typical, hot and humid summer week this time of year in the Midwest. The Quad Cities received a fair amount of rain in June, and some thunderstorms are forecast on both Thursday and Friday. The course should be soft and scoring is always low here, especially if the wind behaves.
John Deere Classic Recent History
2025: Brian Campbell (-18/266); 350-1*
2024: Davis Thompson (-28/256); 25-1**
2023: Sepp Straka (-21/263); 60-1
2022: J.T. Poston (-21/263); 50-1
2021: Lucas Glover (-19/265); 55-1
2020: Tournament canceled due to COVID-19
2019: Dylan Frittelli (-21/263), 90-1
2018: Michael Kim (-27/257), 300-1
2017: Bryson DeChambeau (-18/266), 50-1
2016: Ryan Moore (-22/262), 25-1
2015: Jordan Spieth (-20/264), 4-1***
2014: Brian Harman (-22/262), 125-1
2013: Jordan Spieth (-19/265), 40-1****
2012: Zach Johnson (-20/264), 12-1 *****
2011: Steve Stricker (-22/262), 7-1
2010: Steve Stricker (-26/258), 16-1
Playoff win over Emiliano Grillo – *
Tournament scoring record – **
Playoff win over Tom Gillis – ***
Playoff win over David Hearn and Zach Johnson – ****
Playoff win over Troy Matteson – *****
John Deere Classic Trends and Angles
- 6 of the last 12 champs were first-time PGA Tour winners.
- 15 of the last 16 champs played at least one previous John Deere Classic.
- 9 of the last 16 champs finished in the top 20 or better in a previous John Deere Classic.
- 14 of the last 16 champs had at least one top-5 finish earlier in the season.
Statistical Analysis
With the wide fairways, it is easy to gain strokes off the tee. So, there is more of a premium on good iron play.
Strokes Gained: Approach — Average Per Round (2026 PGA Tour season)
- Daniel Berger 0.590
- Austin Smotherman 0.544
- Tom Kim 0.502
- Johnny Keefer 0.438
- Jackson Suber 0.405
- Haotong Li 0.357
- Zecheng Dou 0.351
- Luke Clanton 0.349
- Max McGreevy 0.341
- Zach Bauchou 0.334
- Joel Dahmen 0.317
- Austin Eckroat 0.310
- Chris Gotterup 0.309
- Keith Mitchell 0.299
- Jacob Bridgeman 0.288
- Christiaan Bezuidenhout 0.287
- Ryo Hisatsune 0.287
The winning score at the John Deere has been 20 under or lower in 11 of the last 15 years, so birdie opportunities are plentiful.
Birdie Or Better Percentage (2026 PGA Tour season)
- Eric Cole 24.49%
- Jacob Bridgeman 24.41
- Keith Mitchell 24.39
- Sudarshan Yellamaraju 23.95
- Pierceson Coody 23.77
- Tony Finau 23.68
- Austin Eckroat 23.58
- Kevin Yu 23.50
- Chris Gotterup 23.48
- Jackson Suber 22.87
- Tom Hoge 22.83
- Erik van Rooyen 22.76
- Aldrich Potgieter 22.72
- Austin Smotherman 22.71
- Jimmy Stanger 22.70
- Max Greyserman 22.67
- Rickie Fowler 22.63
- Doug Ghim 22.61
- Taylor Moore 22.60
- Stephan Jaeger 22.58
- Ryo Hisatsune 22.52
While it is easier to gain strokes off the tee at TPC Deere Run, these strokes cannot be gained simply by trying to overpower the course. Players must shape some of their drives plus avoid the fairway bunkers and thicker rough. Accuracy matters as much as distance. Good Drive Percentage is calculated by the sum of fairways hit and number of greens or fringe in regulation (when the drive was not in the fairway on the tee shot), divided by the number of par-4s and par-5s played.
Good Drive Percentage (2026 PGA Tour season)
- Lucas Glover 85.94%
- Joel Dahmen 84.57
- Ryo Hisatsune 84.55
- Austin Smotherman 84.33
- Johnny Keefer 84.24
- Tom Kim 84.14
- Jackson Suber 83.84
- Max McGreevy 83.62
- Daniel Berger 83.10
- Haotong Li 82.95
- Adam Svensson 82.93
- Marcelo Rozo 82.87
- Rico Hoey 82.75
- Emiliano Grillo 82.68
- Jimmy Stanger 82.66
- Rickie Fowler 82.64
- William Mouw 82.53
- Ben Griffin 82.51
- Doug Ghim 82.33
- Andrew Putnam 82.29
- Keith Mitchell 82.12
There are 11 par-4s at the TPC Deere Run. Par-4 performance gives a more general sense of how players are scoring lately.
Par-4 Performance (2026 PGA Tour season)
- Jacob Bridgeman -19
- Eric Cole -11
- Steven Fisk -11
- Doug Ghim -11
- Tom Kim -10
- Jimmy Stanger -10
- Zach Bauchou -9
- Keith Mitchell -9
- Matthieu Pavon -8
- A.J. Ewart -7
- Rickie Fowler -7
- Ryo Hisatsune -5
- Christiaan Bezuidenhout -4
- Chris Gotterup -4
- Ben Griffin -4
- Sudarshan Yellamaraju -4
- Mac Meissner -3
- Beau Hossler -1
- Haotong Li -1
- Michael Thorbjornsen -1
Not only will approach play be important, but specifically from the wedge distances.
Average Proximity to the Hole 100-150 Yards (Last 36 rounds)
- Tom Hoge 21′ 1″
- Blades Brown 21′ 2″ (16 rounds)
- Jackson Suber 21′ 7″
- Paul Peterson 22′ 0″ (14 rounds)
- Ben Kohles 22′ 4″ (16 rounds)
- Luke Clanton 22′ 5″
- Mark Hubbard 22′ 5″
- Joel Dahmen 22′ 6″
- Camilo Villegas 22′ 7″ (18 rounds)
- Doug Ghim 22′ 7″
- Chandler Blanchet 22′ 8″
- Nick Dunlap 22′ 8″ (25 rounds)
- Lucas Glover 23′ 0″
- Justin Lower 23′ 0″ (24 rounds)
- Tom Kim 23′ 1″
- Davis Chatfield 23′ 1″ (25 rounds)
All the par-5s are reachable in two shots, so players must score on these to have any chance at victory.
Par-5 Performance (2026 PGA Tour season)
- Ryo Hisatsune -101
- Jacob Bridgeman -98
- Tony Finau -97
- Keith Mitchell -96
- Chris Gotterup -95
- Jordan Spieth -94
- Sudarshan Yellamaraju -93
- Pierceson Coody -89
- Patrick Rodgers -89
- Ben Griffin -87
- Max McGreevy -84
- Andrew Novak -82
- Denny McCarthy -81
- Keegan Bradley -80
- Michael Brennan -80
- Eric Cole -79
- Max Homa -79
- Michael Kim -79
- Mac Meissner -78
- Daniel Berger -76
The greens are elevated at TPC Deere Run and some missed approaches will roll off the putting surfaces to short-grass collection areas, so players will have to scramble for pars at times.
Strokes Gained: Around The Green — Average Per Round (2026 PGA Tour season)
- Andrew Putnam 0.480
- Eric Cole 0.479
- Ben Griffin 0.470
- Mackenzie Hughes 0.387
- Sungjae Im 0.346
- Adrien Dumont de Chassart 0.342
- Stephan Jaeger 0.321
- Keegan Bradley 0.321
- Tony Finau 0.307
- Christiaan Bezuidenhout 0.305
- Doug Ghim 0.384
- Zecheng Dou 0.271
- Tom Kim 0.248
- Mac Meissner 0.236
- Danny Walker 0.225
- Christo Lamprecht 0.221
- Peter Malnati 0.221
- Adam Svensson 0.217
- Kevin Roy 0.214
- Taylor Moore 0.213
- Seamus Power 0.207
- David Lipsky 0.205
The greens at TPC Deere Run are fairly straightforward and the John Deere Classic typically turns into a putting contest.
Strokes Gained: Putting — Bentgrass Greens — Average Per Round (Last 36 rounds)
- Ben Silverman 1.60
- A.J. Ewart 1.36
- Pierceson Coody 1.30
- Steven Fisk 1.22
- Peter Malnati 1.22
- Lee Hodges 1.16
- Seamus Power 1.08
- Denny McCarthy 1.07
- Carson Young 1.00
- Matt Kuchar 0.96
- Matt Wallace 0.94
- Eric Cole 0.87
- Garrick Higgo 0.84
- Max Homa 0.79
- Mackenzie Hughes 0.76
- Pontus Nyholm 0.74
- Camilo Villegas 0.73
Selections
Tom Kim (35-1, DraftKings)
It has been over two-and-a-half years since Kim has won, but he appears closer than he has been in the last 18 months.
He finished third two weeks ago at the U.S. Open and gained strokes across the board. That was Kim’s best finish anywhere since late 2024.
Kim ranks third in this field for Strokes Gained: Approach and sixth in Good Drives.
All of his PGA Tour victories have been in birdie-fests on shorter courses (TPC Summerlin, Sedgefield) and TPC Deere Run fits that bill as well.
Michael Thorbjornsen (35-1, BetMGM)
With all of this week’s buzz surrounding Jackson Koivun making his professional debut, let’s look to another former PGA Tour U winner who finished runner-up in his third professional start here two years ago at the John Deere Classic.
Thorbjornsen has four top-3 finishes in his last 2.5 seasons and has been close to a victory on these birdie-fest courses.
Ryo Hisatsune (50-1, BetMGM)
While he has cooled a bit from his early-season form of having four top-10 finishes before April, Hisatsune has remained solid with 18 consecutive made cuts since missing in the first event of the season at the Sony Open in Hawaii.
He is an excellent positional driver (third in Good Drives Gained) and can go low on easier courses (first in the field for Par-5 Performance; top 20 Birdie Or Better).
Due to his early-season success, he has played the full “Signature Event” schedule, but now he gets a drop-in class with most of those big names away. The price has drifted too high on a consistent player.
Jackson Suber (60-1, Fanatics)
Suber ranks top 7 in this field for Strokes Gained: Approach, Good Drives and Proximity from 100-150 yards. That’s the recipe to win here.
His nearest taste to winning was just three weeks ago as the 54-hole leader at the RBC Canadian Open before finishing T-4.
That was Suber’s third top-4 finish of the year as he also did so at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson (another birdie-fest) and at the Astara Golf Championship on the Korn Ferry Tour.
Daniel Berger (61-1, DraftKings)
Berger has been off his game since his agonizing playoff defeat to Akshay Bhatia at the Arnold Palmer Invitational in March. Since then, he only has two top-25 finishes, including last week at The Travelers.
However, like Hisatsune, the schedule has been littered with major championships and “Signature Events.”
He ranks first in this field for Strokes Gained: Approach. The putting has been an issue, but he might have found a little something last week, gaining +1.2 strokes on Saturday/Sunday after losing -4.7 with the putter on Thursday/Friday.
Denny McCarthy (62-1, DraftKings)
McCarthy has been consistent this year (made 14 of 17 cuts), but last week’s T-14 at The Travelers was his second-best finish of the season.
The John Deere has been a place to get right for him historically, considering he has finished 11-7-6-6 here the last four years.
He co-led the field last week at The Travelers for Greens In Regulation along with some of the game’s current elite (Scheffler, Fitzpatrick, Morikawa), so his irons look good and he is always known as “Denny McPutty” and has always been great on the greens here.
Ben Kohles (82-1, DraftKings)
Kohles looks to be in solid shape to regain his PGA Tour card courtesy of earning his fifth career victory on the Korn Ferry Tour earlier this month. Nevertheless, this is one of his few PGA Tour starts this season and he needs to take advantage.
He led the field in Strokes Gained: Approach at the U.S. Open and finished a respectable 23rd after having to qualify the week prior.
Placement markets, matchups and/or other bets will be available Wednesday at VSiN.com/picks.
