Daily Racing Form expert handicapper and analyst Marcus Hersh handicaps the Friday, June 19 racing card at Churchill Downs, including his projected 1-2-3 finishers. His best bet of the day comes from Race 5.
Also, view FREE DRF Past Performances for today’s Race of the Day.
BEST BET: Karajan (5th race)
Fifth Race
1. Karajan
2. Crossfire
3. Trim Castle
Did not have strong feelings about those who have run and did not find much appealing workout video from the firsters, with one major exception – KARAJAN. Liked his breeze video quite a bit and would give him a look in a straight MSW – and he debuts here in a restricted race. Seems like a horse who’s good in the gate and fast out of it – athletic, responsive to rider and seems plenty fit. CROSSFIRE faced open maidens his first two and need not run much better than in his last, which is a realistic baseline, to contend here. No work video since April, so no idea how he’s breezed in blinkers, which go on for this race. TRIM CASTLE to me lacks much upside on the day, but doesn’t need much to contend.
Here are Marcus’s thoughts on the other eight races on Friday’s Churchill Downs card.
First Race
1. Bow Draw
2. Barbratina
3. Cozy Curlin Kitten
8yp BOW DRAW, frankly, was IMO mismanaged throughout her career – mainly in the form of being consistently over-entered, though also shipped all over the place, tried in a variety of races. Claimed four races back for himself by a HOF trainer, she last raced April 18 and has been training steadily at Ellis Park – wonder if this stretch of continuity – and running where belongs – brings out the best in a horse who fits with her best. Claimed for $30K and months later, looking for the first win post-claim, in for $40K. The form that hints BARBRATINA came during 2024 for trainer B Cox – two barn changes since and a lost 2025. Last out gave hints, finally, the ship had been righted, or, at least, no longer was sinking. That, plus the fact her draw and the likely race shape should put her in an ideal position to show what she can. COZY CURLIN KITTEN beat the top pick at Oaklawn, but that was in a two-turn race, and she’s down below the recent claim price – though, to be fair, not by much given this purse.
Second Race
1. Ready to Pounce
2. Hoodlum
3. Saltwater Cowboy
Don’t like any of the shorter prices – can’t advocate at all. I’m not ready to say READY TO POUNCE can’t at least come close to the SoCal form that’d give him a chance – two dirt races starting this form cycle, and the move to a much higher-priced turf claimer last out has the feel of a “getting to know you” warm up race first off the claim. Guess I could see HOODLUM improving marginally off his flat fourth at 17-10 last out in this same kind of race, but something like the morning line’s 8-5? No, thank you. Had SALTWATER COWBOY been given a couple more weeks and wound up in this spot – second off layoff, claim was waived in comeback race, potential lone speed – I’d have him on top. But he ran June 10, and feels like a rush back into racing, for whatever reason.
Third Race
1. Bit Tipsy
2. Let Her Fly
3. Bee Crazy
Am a big fan of Ruiva, and it was she who beat 10 foes by a wide margin back on April 29, among them BIT TIPSY, who did not at all run poorly, inside trip in sloppy track, staying-on fourth – especially if you think, as I do, she can move up on grass. Guess she’s half the morning-line odds. LET HER FLY didn’t break great debuting 5/22, went evenly but not poorly. Was entered for grass that day and same case here – she’s by a preeminent turf sprint sire. BEE CRAZY ran better than LHF in their common debut, but perhaps not quite as much grass upside?
Fourth Race
1. Evan On Earth
2. Vanderbilt
3. Army Wildcatter
First-time gelding EVAN ON EARTH wants to show speed and is favorably drawn outside 6-5 morning-line favorite VANDERBILT, who also wants to show speed. Layoff bothers me not one whit, nor does the drop down to $50K N2L claiming – won his maiden for $75K tag, and this is where he belongs. One can imagine connections of Vanderbilt didn’t imagine this is where he’d belong – purchased as a yearling for $1.1 million. Managed to make two starts as of June of 4yo season – debut, prior to long layoff, was pretty good. Note, they left him in Florida to get the maiden win in late May, after all the big outfits had shipped north. And if there were confidence he’d build off that victory, would the $50K for-sale sign be hanging out right away? If not one of those two – I dunno. ARMY WILDCATTER did appear to regress (more than the 3-point Beyer drop suggests) second back from a layoff. Bounce-back potential but not much of a ceiling.
Sixth Race
1. Lambeth
2. West Hollywood
3. Irish Aces
Maybe it’s just that LAMBETH exceeded my expectations, but his comeback performance last out, a good third behind two horses who’d win this race, caught my eye. Thought he needed longer, wasn’t sure about grass, but liked the way he moved on turf. Set for a good ground-saving trip – will have to find room at some point – from the rail, and I like him to win, be this turf or dirt. WEST HOLLYWOOD competitive in graded stake last out and will be competitive here, especially stalking what ought to be a hot, contested pace. Just think he might offer less value than the top pick. Trainer B Walsh has a decent — but only decent – record with older horses returning from a layoff of 180 days or longer in a turf route allowance or stake – the situation here with IRISH ACES, who clearly was good enough pre-layoff to play a major role.
Seventh Race
1. Forty Love
2. Mitty’s Griddy
3. League of Legends
Three good closing sprints for FORTY LOVE – and then they stretched him out to a two-turn mile 4/19 fresh off the claim? Maybe there was OP sprint race that fit him. This is one of those weird horses super popular at claim box – claimed five times in a row and six races out of last seven. Freshened up for this, and not only cuts back to a sprint, which is good, he lands in a race top-heavy with pace players, which perfectly suits his style. MITTY’S GRIDDY knocked out the $40K N2L win two back, which made good on the $32K claim four back, so I don’t view the move into $20K claiming as especially negative. What would be negative – riding him forward, as has recently been the case, in this speed-filled spot. Doesn’t need to be anything as dramatic as his career debut, but taking back a bit, if he’s willing, would be the way to go. 9yo LEAGUE OF LEGENDS rarely wins and probably won’t break that trend now, but right style to clunk along into a chunk of it.
Eighth Race
1. Cash Call
2. Roswell
3. Tapit Quick
CASH CALL has plenty of speed, for sure, but watching her lone CD work video, her stride might strike one as route-y. Drew inside for the March comeback run, which didn’t help, and didn’t seem to be herself in that race anyway. Thought she moved well enough in the easy June 13 solo drill well off rail over a chewed-up surface, and this time she has a favorable draw. Outside stalking trip behind contested pace, and likely gets back on track here. ROSWELL looked like a lesser version of her best self in two starts this year – but last year she peaked third back from a break, and her style fits this spot. That same thought lands TAPIT QUICK in the top three – passes tiring speed, likely not enough zip to win.
Ninth Race
1. Miss Pharaoh
2. Amberglen
3. Sunshine Daydream
Mishmash race – I’m going with the horse I think is good enough to contend and can win on the trip – MISS PHARAOH. Stays 9f and was just tiring late in win over that distance two back after making a pretty early sharp move to the lead first race after a four-month layoff. Off turf in last – look at that race as a good bridge to this one. Improved 4yo still has upside. Gets first run on the speed – seems like a few of them – and can hold off what looks like a moderate group of closing types. Among them AMBERGLEN, who might be good? Only hints of that so far, but the morning line probably is right that you’ll still be taking a short price while merely projecting. SUNSHINE DAYDREAM probably doesn’t hang on to win, but like her best of those expected to race in the vanguard.
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