MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Friday, June 19.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and tools from our friends at Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
Our brand new Opta AI MLB Player Prop Projections are also available.
7:05 PM Eastern
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees
Yankees starting pitcher Cam Schlittler has been superb this season with a 1.82 ERA and a 2.31 fielding independent, allowing only 0.5 home runs and 1.8 walks per nine innings. Reds starting pitcher Rhett Lowder owns a 4.60 ERA but is inducing soft contact, allowing only 0.6 home runs per nine innings. He is also supported by a lineup that ranks 18th in scoring with just under 4.3 runs per game.
Pick: Reds vs. Yankees Under 9 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 8.1
7:10 PM Eastern
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Nationals starting pitcher Cade Cavalli has pitched better than his 3.98 ERA would indicate, as he owns a 3.43 fielding independent with 0.7 home runs and 9.8 strikeouts per nine innings. Rays starting pitcher Griffin Jax has a 3.68 ERA but a higher 4.53 fielding independent with 1.4 home runs and 3.7 walks per nine innings allowed. He faces a Nationals lineup that leads the league in scoring with 5.4 runs per game, and both bullpens are relatively equal, with the Rays ranking 22nd in ERA at 4.67 and the Nationals 23rd at 4.71.
Pick: Nationals Moneyline +105
Greg’s Handicap: Nationals -121
8:05 PM Eastern
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers
Rangers starting pitcher Jacob deGrom has posted stellar numbers with a 3.17 ERA while recording 10.5 strikeouts and just 1.8 walks per nine innings. However, he has had issues allowing hard contact, surrendering 1.5 home runs per nine innings, and his 3.57 fielding independent points toward some regression. Padres starting pitcher Randy Vasquez may also be due for regression, as he owns a 3.63 ERA but a higher 4.47 fielding independent with seven strikeouts and 1.3 home runs allowed per nine innings. While the Padres rank last in scoring at 3.8 runs per game overall, they have been far more productive on the road, averaging more than 4.2 runs per game.
Pick: Padres vs. Rangers Over 7 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 8.0
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros
Guardians starting pitcher Tanner Bibee is posting a career-low 7.6 strikeouts per nine innings and may be due for regression on his 3.96 ERA, as his fielding independent sits at 4.69 with 1.6 home runs allowed per nine innings. Astros starting pitcher Tatsuya Imai has poor overall numbers this season with a 6.43 ERA, but his 5.24 fielding independent is more encouraging. He has improved as the season has gone along, allowing three runs or fewer in four of his past five starts, and faces a Guardians lineup dealing with numerous injuries that has scored just 35 total runs over its past 12 games.
Pick: Guardians vs. Astros Under 8.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 8.1
8:10 PM Eastern
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals
Cardinals starting pitcher Michael McGreevy is pitching to quite a bit of contact with only 5.9 strikeouts per nine innings. While he has done a good job limiting free passes with just 2.2 walks per nine innings, his 4.35 fielding independent and 1.3 home runs allowed per nine innings point toward regression from his 2.99 ERA. While the Royals are last in the league in road run production at 3.6 runs per game, they average a more respectable 4.4 runs per game at home and will send Seth Lugo to the mound. Lugo owns a 3.86 ERA and a 3.55 fielding independent with 0.8 home runs and 2.8 walks allowed per nine innings.
Pick: Royals Moneyline +103 and Under 9.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Royals -117 and Total 8.8
8:40 PM Eastern
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies
Pirates starting pitcher Bubba Chandler has battled command issues with 5.4 walks per nine innings but still owns a 4.76 ERA and a 4.54 fielding independent with 1.1 home runs and nine strikeouts per nine innings. Rockies starting pitcher Kyle Freeland has struggled badly this season, posting a 7.98 ERA while allowing 2.1 home runs per nine innings. He is backed by a bullpen that ranks last in ERA at 5.11 and faces a Pittsburgh offense that ranks fifth in scoring with nearly 5.1 runs per game.
Pick: Pirates Moneyline -130 and Over 11.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Pirates -177 and Total 12.1
10:10 PM Eastern
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
While Dodgers starting pitcher Roki Sasaki’s season-long numbers are not impressive, with a 4.76 ERA, he has improved recently by allowing three earned runs or fewer in six of his past seven starts. He faces an Orioles lineup that ranks 20th in road run production with 4.2 runs per game. Orioles starting pitcher Trey Gibson has struggled to miss bats, posting just 5.1 strikeouts and 5.5 walks per nine innings to go along with a 5.91 ERA and a 6.36 fielding independent.
Pick: Dodgers Run Line -1.5 +112
Greg’s Handicap: Dodgers -1.5 -118
