USA vs. Australia
Seattle Stadium, Seattle, Washington
Friday, June 19th, 3:00 p.m. ET
United States (-165) | Draw (+330) | Australia (+425)
Over 2.5 Goals (-105) | Under 2.5 Goals (-115)
Two of the nations behind the biggest surprises of the group stage face off Friday afternoon in Seattle. Australia began their World Cup campaign with a bang, taking down group favorite Türkiye 2-0 as (+400) moneyline underdogs. Goalkeeper Patrick Beach stood on his head and saved eight shots, preventing an estimated 1.46 goals. Nestory Irankunda got Australia on the board midway through the first half, and they never looked back. Connor Metcalfe added a second shortly after the halftime break, and a 2-0 victory was secured.
The other surprise of the opening round came from the United States — not because they won, but because of the manner in which they did it. USA soccer is not known for coming out at a World Cup with their hair on fire, but that’s exactly what happened. Early US pressure caused a fortunate bounce that resulted in an own goal for Paraguay, and the intensity only built from there. Folarin Balogun may be one of the most gifted strikers the United States has produced in recent memory. He had a goal ruled out by VAR review, but recovered quickly, finding the back of the net twice before halftime — the first assisted by Christian Pulisic, a pairing that showed real chemistry. The final result, 4-1, sent a message: the United States isn’t just here to host.
The two sides met last year in a friendly, and while neither team was at full strength with their current World Cup rosters, there are some useful takeaways. Four of the five Australian defenders who started this tournament also started that 2025 friendly, which the US won 2-1 thanks to a brace from Coventry striker Haji Wright. Balogun is an upgrade on that threat, and he should be capable of getting in behind again and testing a keeper riding hot form.
The US has now gone nine straight matches without a clean sheet, and seven of their last eight have gone Over 2.5 goals. Both teams have scored in eight of the United States’ last nine matches. Australia, by contrast, has gone Under 2.5 goals in four of their last five. The contrasting styles set up an interesting dynamic: the US should get on the board early, which will force Australia to open up — something they may be willing to do with three points already in the bag. The biggest vulnerability for the US remains their goalkeeping and back line, which can be exposed.
Following a similar approach to the England match — both teams to score & Over 2.5 goals. The safer play is the United States to win and score 2+ goals, available at close to even money. And back to the well with Balogun to score first.
Picks:
Both Teams to Score & Over 2.5 Goals (+150)
United States ML & Team Total Over 1.5 Goals (-105)
Folarin Balogun 1st Goalscorer (+470)
