Daily Racing Form expert handicapper and analyst Mike Beer handicaps the Thursday, August 20 racing card at Saratoga, including his projected 1-2-3 finishers. His best bet of the day comes from Race 5.
Also, view FREE DRF Past Performances for today’s Race of the Day.
BEST BET: Escapades (5th race)
Fifth Race
1. Escapades
2. Deported
3. Oligarch
ESCAPADES gained some experience with two starts on synthetic over the winter. He debuted in a very tough spot behind front-running Thought Control (90 Beyer for that effort; has since won a turf sprint with a 100); wound up wide chasing in another race that was dominated on the lead when going shorter in his second start; new gelding drops for this, and he is bred for turf. DEPORTED kept coming up short overseas despite appearing to have every chance in most of those races; perhaps a shorter distance will be to his benefit, as he lacked a strong finish over and over again in those longer races; drops with Lasix on. OLIGARCH ran well enough to be considered a major contender here in his first two starts sprinting on turf; was sent off as a heavy favorite last time and totally bombed; threat if he can bounce back.
Here are Mike’s thoughts on the other seven races on Thursday’s Saratoga card.
First Race
1. Spirit Forward
2. Oath
3. Ready Rosie Jane
SPIRIT FORWARD was outrun early, before racing on greenly in the lane to pass some horses in her lone start as a 2yo; made her return from the layoff on turf without success; back to dirt to make her second start of the year, this time while cutting in half and adding blinkers and Lasix; needs to get some early position out of the chute. OATH was listed as a vet scratch from a similar spot about a month ago (that was a seven-furlong race) and shows just one breeze since. Her best effort to date came on a different surface; she was up in class for the dirt debut, where she contested the pace before proving to be no match in the stretch; dropping for a hot barn, and she has speed on the stretch out. READY ROSIE JANE is a 5yo maiden, and she failed to land a blow in either of her two dirt starts to date while facing better than this; needs this class drop.
Second Race
1. Into Diamonds
2. Tamino
3. Armet
INTO DIAMONDS ran well to win his career debut sprinting on turf as a 2yo; he has endured a long layoff and was a non-factor when back sprinting on grass here eleven days ago, though that was a much tougher race than this one; can easily improve as he drops to make his second start back from that long break. TAMINO earned figures that make him competitive here in his only prior starts on grass, which were the first two starts of his career; he has been fine on dirt this year, but these connections have entered him for turf three times now off the claim (once when this race was last carded a few weeks ago before getting rained off); logical dropping down in class. ARMET might not have been facing the strongest field in the world, but he improved with the switch to turf last time when parlaying a good trip into a clear-cut maiden win; logically spotted right back by Asmussen.
Third Race
1. Max O Nidas
2. Gadget
3. Medieval
Not sure where to go in this weak-looking maiden claimer for 2-year-olds. MAX O NIDAS might be the default position for Asmussen, though he hardly has to be a major talent to contend in this field; his sire was a quick sprinter and has two winners from his first 16 debut runners; the dam has three prior foals, and all are winners, including debut winner Dontgiveupthefight, who went 8 for 15 and was a stakes winner. GADGET and MEDIEVAL are Arindel stablemates for Ilkay Kantarmaci. GADGET is a first-time starter from the female family of multiple Grade 1 winner Questing. MEDIEVAL has run twice to no avail in the MSW ranks, though he did have some early speed in those races; turf-to-dirt while getting a needed drop in class in his first start for this trainer.
Fourth Race
1. Cash Burn
2. Secret Connection
3. Early Returns
CASH BURN is a $370k yearling by the excellent sire Nyquist (18% with juvenile first-time starters); the stakes-placed dam was a debut winner sprinting on dirt, and she is a sister to Saratoga-loving multiple stakes-winning sprinter Bern Identity (also a debut winner as a 2yo with an 86 Beyer). SECRET CONNECTION has the benefit of experience, and she got bet in her debut early in the meet, where she was on the chase in a race that fell apart late; can do better. EARLY RETURNS is by new sire Early Voting (6 for 22 with first-time starters from his first crop); the dam won five races on dirt, and her sister, Classic Lady, was a multiple stakes winner on the grass; has some things going for her for a very good trainer.
Sixth Race
1. Valtellina
2. Boxed Wine
3. Princess Becca
VALTELLINA has concentrated on longer distances since being disqualified from back-to-back wins going this distance early last year; good effort for second with a new Beyer top in her first start off the layoff as a 4yo, and she was in over her head last time; the one to beat turning back. BOXED WINE has also been best going longer; liked the way she improved when switched to dirt off the claim here last summer, and this is a proper step back in class, though her lack of speed works against her out of the chute. PRINCESS BECCA is one of three first-off-the-claim winners for this trainer at the meet, and her victory came over this distance; can get the right trip, but the presence of the top one makes this a pretty significant step up in class.
Seventh Race
1. Chummers
2. Jaxer
3. A Little At First
CHUMMERS wasn’t as good as JAXER when they met in the Notebook late last year, though he did get pretty far back in the early stages of that race. CHUMMERS has clearly improved as a 3yo, while JAXER has remained unraced, and breaking from the rail over this distance is an added advantage; looking for three in a row following an upset stakes win in that last one. JAXER benefited from added distance as a juvenile, and he powered up the inside while outfinishing CHUMMERS to win the Notebook when last seen; Motion is as reliable as anyone with turf routers returning from layoff, and this gelding has been breezing right along for the last six weeks or so following a training interruption in the spring. A LITTLE AT FIRST was no match for CHUMMERS in the Violette after sitting a three-wide trip away from the pace; he has been improving right along and can get the jump if ridden a bit more aggressively than that in this spot.
Eighth Race
1. Oklahoma Smoke
2. She’s Got Will
3. Just Add Water
OKLAHOMA SMOKE has run well on all three surfaces; overcame a wide draw (and trip) to win her turf debut here about a month ago with a new top figure; not sure how much tougher this race is. SHE’S GOT WILL fired a good one to break her maiden over course and distance last summer off the layoff, after which she tried several different courses and distances to no avail; looks well-spotted off the claim after landing in a tough spot when wide in a pace-dominated race last time. JUST ADD WATER ran well while winning twice sprinting on turf here last summer; thought she looked like a horse that needed a start when brought back from the layoff this year, but she was disappointing again last time – albeit in a tougher race; steps back in class looking to get back on track.
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