CJ Cup Byron Nelson Picks, Best Bets and Golf Odds:
Aronimink Golf Club proved to be a more difficult test than we all expected, resulting in a bunched leaderboard on Sunday. Englishman Aaron Rai, who closed anywhere from 150- to 200-1 but was as high as 290-1 at DraftKings Sportsbook, emerged from the pack on Sunday and shot 6 under par over his last 10 holes to win the PGA Championship at 9 under par, three clear of 54-hole leader Alex Smalley and Jon Rahm.
Rai’s 68-foot birdie putt on the 71st hole locked up the Wanamaker Trophy and first career major championship victory.
Rai led the field for the week on Strokes Gained: Approach and ranked fifth for Strokes Gained: Putting.
Rounding out the top 10 were Matti Schmid, Justin Thomas and Ludvig Åberg at T-4, and Xander Schauffele, Rory McIlroy and Cameron Smith at T-7, while Kurt Kitayama, Justin Rose, Chris Gotterup and Patrick Reed finished T-10.
The newly minted PGA champion was expected to be in the field this week for the CJ Cup Byron Nelson but withdrew on Monday morning.
Scottie Scheffler (+175), the event’s defending champion and a Dallas resident, will defend his title this week. The World No. 1 finished T-14 at the PGA largely because of a struggling putter, as Scheffler ranked 71st out of 82 players that made the weekend cut for Strokes Gained: Putting. Nevertheless, he is still close to an odds-on favorite here and should be, considering he won here last year by eight strokes at 31 under par.
Si Woo Kim (14-1) is the second choice on the odds board and was runner-up in this event in 2023.
Jordan Spieth (+1750) is a Dallas native but has never won this event, with his best finish being second in 2022 and he was also fourth here last year.
Brooks Koepka (25-1) is seeking his first victory since moving to the PGA Tour full time.
Players at 40-1 include Pierceson Coody, another local from nearby Plano whose grandfather Charles Coody won the 1964 Byron Nelson, Keith Mitchell, Davis Thompson and Michael Thorbjornsen.
Other former Byron Nelson winners in this week’s field include 2024 winner Taylor Pendrith (55-1), 2021 and 2022 winner KH Lee (500-1), 2018 winner Aaron Wise (1500-1) and 2017 winner Billy Horschel (200-1).
The Event
The CJ Cup Byron Nelson is named after its first winner. Nelson won this tournament in 1944 when it was known as the Texas Victory Open. He lent his name to his event in 1968 and served as host until he died in 2016. The tournament is the all-time fundraising leader on the PGA Tour. The Salesmanship Club of Dallas is the event’s host organization, and it raises money for Momentous Institute, a youth social services organization based in Dallas. The event has always been played in the Dallas area throughout its run.
South Korean conglomerate CJ Group took over the sponsorship in 2024 and sponsored the CJ Cup event from 2017 to 2022.
Many legends of the game have won this event including Tom Watson (1975, 1978, 1979, and 1980), Sam Snead (1945, 1957, and 1958), Jack Nicklaus (1970, 1971), Byron Nelson (1944), Ben Hogan (1946), Phil Mickelson (1996), Tiger Woods (1997), Sergio Garcia (2004, 2016) and Scottie Scheffler (2025).
This tournament was moved to TPC Craig Ranch, located in McKinney (32 miles northeast of downtown Dallas), in 2021.
The Field
Despite having the World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler as the headliner, the CJ Cup Byron Nelson is in a tough spot on the PGA Tour schedule, being in the middle of an eight-week stretch that includes three “Signature Events” and two major championships.
With 500 FedEx Cup points, a $10.3 million purse and the ability to play one’s way into the Memorial Tournament “Signature Event” in two weeks, there is plenty at stake this week for many players in the 147-player field.
The Course
TPC Craig Ranch plays host for its fourth year. The layout was designed by Tom Weiskopf in 2004. Weiskopf also designed TPC Scottsdale (Waste Management Phoenix Open) and the Torrey Pines North Course (Farmers Insurance Open). The course is set in a rolling valley and features tree-lined fairways with Rowlett Creek, which will criss-cross the course 14 times for eight water danger holes. The track underwent several renovations last year, and it was headed up by 1973 Byron Nelson winner and Dallas resident Lanny Wadkins. It will play as a par-71 of 7,385 yards. Last year, 155 yards of length was added to the track and Scottie Scheffler lit it up at 31 under par.
Wadkins led another $22 million renovation of TPC Craig Ranch this past year to make this course more difficult as it played as one of the easier layouts on tour in 2025.
Arguably the most significant of the changes are the greens. Several greens were reshaped, repositioned or rebuilt entirely. The greens were also made smaller in several locations to put more of a premium on approach play. Expanded contours and additional pin positions were also added.
In addition, almost all of the bunkers here were redesigned, but the clusters around the greens are even more notable.
In terms of the agronomy, Stadium Zoysiagrass remains in the fairways, the rough and teeboxes, though, are now all TifTuf Bermuda, and the greens are all 777 Bentgrass for a smoother and truer roll.
Some potential correlated courses to TPC Craig Ranch include Vidanta Vallarta, TPC Scottsdale (Weiskopf design), Black Desert Resort (Weiskopf design), Detroit Golf Club, TPC Twin Cities, TPC Deere Run, CC of Jackson and Plantation Course of Kapalua.
Here is the scorecard for TPC Craig Ranch:
This brief video shows some of the renovation changes from last year at TPC Craig Ranch.
Weather
Expect some delays throughout the event especially on Thursday as heavier rain is expect in the DFW area.
The CJ Cup Byron Nelson Recent History/Winners
2025: Scottie Scheffler (-31/253); +280
2024: Taylor Pendrith (-23/261); 80-1
2023: Jason Day (-23/261); 18-1
2022: K.H. Lee (-26/262); 100-1
2021: K. H. Lee (-25/263); 150-1
2020: Tournament canceled (COVID-19)
2019: Sung Kang (-23/261); 125-1
2018: Aaron Wise (-23/261); 50-1
2017: Billy Horschel (-12/268); 125-1*
2016: Sergio Garcia (-15/265); 25-1**
2015: Steven Bowditch (-18/259); 500-1***
2014: Brendon Todd (-14/266); 100-1
2013: Sang-moon Bae (-13/267); 150-1
2012: Jason Dufner (-11/269); 22-1
2011: Keegan Bradley (-3/277) 200-1****
2010: Jason Day (-10/270); 100-1
Playoff win over Jason Day – *
Playoff win over Brooks Koepka – **
Par played at 69 for three days due to flooding – ***
Playoff win over Ryan Palmer – ****
Notes: 2018 and 2019 tournaments played at Trinity Forest Golf Club; 2010-2017 tournaments played at TPC Las Colinas.
Statistical Analysis
Due to the major renovations, it’s unclear how this course will play. The course design team and the tournament organizers want this scoring to be around 15 under par for the winner, but that’s a big plummet from the 31 under par winning score, heck, even the 23-under-par second-place score from last year.
In past years the Byron Nelson has not been a putting contest. Tee-To-Green is the name of the game.
In the last five years here, these have been the Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green numbers for the winners:
2025: Scheffler +16.96 (1st)
2024: Pendrith +8.80 (3rd)
2023: Day +10.80 (1st)
2022: KH Lee +10.40 (5th)
2021: KH Lee +10.80 (2nd)
Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green- Average Per Round (2026 PGA Tour season)
- Scottie Scheffler 1.623
- Si Woo Kim 1.430
- Brooks Koepka 1.232
- Davis Thompson 0.817
- Ryo Hisatsune 0.779
- Max McGreevy 0.637
- Keith Mitchell 0.631
- Jordan Smith 0.588
- Haotong Li 0.557
- Doug Ghim 0.526
- Adrien Dumont de Chassart 0.513
- Zecheng Dou 0.444
- Tom Kim 0.401
- Adam Svensson 0.399
- Mac Meissner 0.386
Some of the greens were made smaller to put a greater premium on approach play.
Strokes Gained: Approach — Average Per Round (2026 PGA Tour season)
- Brooks Koepka 0.767
- Si Woo Kim 0.702
- Austin Eckroat 0.523
- Sam Ryder 0.514
- Zecheng Dou 0.511
- Davis Thompson 0.489
- Scottie Scheffler 0.408
- Luke Clanton 0.379
- John Parry 0.372
- Wyndham Clark 0.350
- Jordan Smith 0.344
- Tom Kim 0.330
- Ryo Hisatsune 0.325
- Haotong Li 0.315
- Max McGreevy 0.315
Even if the course plays more difficult, it will still be scoreable and birdies should be plentiful.
Birdie Or Better Percentage (2026 PGA Tour season)
- Scottie Scheffler 27.92%
- Pierceson Coody 24.70
- Si Woo Kim 24.70
- Ryo Hisatsune 24.28
- Wyndham Clark 24.37
- Kevin Yu 23.56
- Eric Cole 23.30
- Kevin Roy 23.27
- Keith Mitchell 23.19
- Austin Eckroat 23.06
- Karl Vilips 22.92
- Max Greyserman 22.81
- Brooks Koepka 22.72
- Danny Walker 22.65
- Patrick Rodgers 22.53
Perhaps TPC Craig Ranch does play slightly more difficult than years past after the renovations, but it is a bit of “I’ll believe it when I see it.”
Strokes Gained: Total — Easy Scoring Conditions — Average Per Round (Last 16 rounds)
- Scottie Scheffler 2.46
- Brooks Koepka 1.92
- Paul Peterson 1.89
- Davis Thompson 1.77
- Blades Brown 1.69
- Keita Nakajima 1.62
- Christiaan Bezuidenhout 1.56
- Beau Hossler 1.54
- Kevin Roy 1.51
- Si Woo Kim 1.40
- David Skinns 1.27
- Mac Meissner 1.19
- Eric Cole 1.17
- John Parry 1.06
- Doug Ghim 1.04
There will be several approach shots of over 200 yards, including three of four par-3s.
Average Proximity to the Hole — 200+ Yards (2026 PGA Tour season)
- Brooks Koepka 44′ 6″
- Michael Brennan 45′ 7″
- Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen 45′ 11″
- Michael Thorbjornsen 47′ 2″
- Mac Meissner 47′ 4″
- Adrien Dumont de Chassart 47′ 5″
- Dan Brown 47′ 7″
- Rico Hoey 48′ 0″
- Neal Shipley 48′ 2″
- Ryo Hisatsune 48′ 3″
- Adam Svensson 48′ 5″
- Wyndham Clark 48′ 7″
- Pierceson Coody 48′ 8″
- Chad Ramey 48′ 9″
- Max Greyserman 49′ 1″
The fairways average around 35 yards wide, so players will still be using predominantly driver off the tee.
Average Driving Distance (2026 PGA Tour season)
- Michael Brennan 325.0
- Rasmus Højgaard 321.2
- Johnny Keefer 317.8
- Christo Lamprecht 315.9
- Pierceson Coody 315.8
- Gordon Sargent 315.7
- Pontus Nyholm 315.0
- Michael Thorbjornsen 314.7
- Keith Mitchell 313.5
- Stephan Jaeger 313.2
- Taylor Pendrith 313.1
- Brooks Koepka 313.0
- Scottie Scheffler 313.0
- Jordan Smith 312.9
- Taylor Moore 311.5
The par-5s at TPC Craig Ranch have almost a 55% Birdie Or Better rate, so players must take advantage of them.
Par-5 Performance (2026 PGA Tour season)
- Ryo Hisatsune -84 (cumulative under par score on par-5s)
- Si Woo Kim -84
- Scottie Scheffler -80
- Patrick Rodgers -76
- Jordan Spieth -76
- Keith Mitchell -75
- Matti Schmid -74
- Tony Finau -73
- Max McGreevy -72
- Pierceson Coody -69
- Joe Highsmith -66
- Michael Brennan -63
- Tom Kim -63
- Christiaan Bezuidenhout -62
- Rico Hoey -61
- Kevin Roy -61
- Jordan Smith -61
While the Byron Nelson has never particularly been a putting contest at TPC Craig Ranch, but good putters on Bentgrass greens can gain on the field.
Strokes Gained: Putting — Bentgrass Greens — Average Per Round (Last 16 rounds)
- John VanDerLaan 1.202
- Paul Peterson 0.957
- Daniel Brown 0.940
- Adrien Saddier 0.848
- Keita Nakajima 0.826
- Taylor Montgomery 0.780
- Pierceson Coody 0.779
- Jackson Buchanan 0.700
- Jeremy Paul 0.676
- Danny Walker 0.667
- Haotong Li 0.611
- Kris Ventura 0.604
- Thorbjørn Olesen 0.599
- A.J. Ewart 0.546
- Beau Hossler 0.519
Selections
Considering we have a favorite in Scottie Scheffler at close to even money for the first time in several years, this event is probably as prudent as any to bet any outrights in the Without Scottie Scheffler market.
Pierceson Coody (27-1, DraftKings)
Coody’s grandfather Charles, the 1971 Masters champion, won this event almost 62 years ago when it was named the Dallas Open Invitational.
Coody has cooled a bit from his hot start to 2026, where he finished runner-up at the Farmers Insurance Open and then in the top 10 the following weeks at the Waste Management Phoenix Open.
Only Scheffler ranks better in this field for Birdie Or Better Percentage, and Coody also ranks top 10 in this field for Driving Distance, Bentgrass Putting and Par-5 Scoring.
Michael Brennan (40-1, Caesars Sportsbook)
Brennan won on his PGA Tour debut last fall at the Bank of Utah Championship.
He has made nine of 11 cuts and has started to play better of late and made the cut in both majors thus far this season.
Brennan ranks second on the PGA Tour for Strokes Gained: Off-The-Tee and third of Driving Distance.
Tom Kim (47-1, DraftKings)
Kim was an OWGR top 20 player and was knocking at the door to get into the top 10 in the world two years ago and then had an awful 2025 campaign.
This year, he has shown more consistency by making nine of 10 cuts with his best finish coming two weeks ago with a T-6 in Myrtle Beach, ranking second in the field for Strokes Gained: Approach.
The Dallas native also begins the week in a good frame of mind, having qualified for the U.S. Open on Monday through Final Qualifying at the Dallas Athletic Club.
Jordan Smith (50-1, FanDuel)
Smith, an Englishman, is a two-time DP World Tour winner in his rookie season on the PGA Tour, where he has made eight of 12 cuts this year.
Smith ranks top 10 in this field for Strokes Gained: Approach and Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green and is an excellent ball striker.
Currently, he ranks 71st in the OWGR and is fighting to get into the top 60 by June 9 to earn a U.S. Open spot.
Stephan Jaeger (50-1, Caesars Sportsbook)
Jaeger shared the lead after the first round of last week’s PGA Championship and ended up finishing 18th.
Last week, the German was fourth in the field for Greens In Regulation, ninth for Strokes Gained: Putting and 11th for Ball Striking.
He has made the cut in all four appearances here at TPC Craig Ranch.
Austin Eckroat (62-1, DraftKings)
Eckroat was the runner-up at the 2023 Byron Nelson.
He comes in on good form with a 10th at the Valero Texas Open, sixth at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans and a 19th at Myrtle Beach.
Eckroat ranks third in this field for Strokes Gained: Approach.
Zecheng Dou (88-1, DraftKings)
Marty Dou is based in Dallas and finished fifth here in 2023 when he was the 54-hole leader.
Dou has four top-21 finishes on tour this season and is top 5 in this field for Strokes Gained: Approach.
Jhonattan Vegas (100-1, DraftKings)
Vegas finished just 44th at the PGA but was second in the field for Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green, second for Greens In Regulation and fourth for Strokes Gained: Ball Striking but unfortunately was dead last (82nd) for Strokes Gained: Putting.
He has finishes of 9th and 13th at TPC Craig Ranch and will like these smoother Bentgrass greens as opposed to last week at Aronimink with all the contours.
Placement markets, matchups, and/or other bets will be up Wednesday at VSiN.com/picks
