Daily Racing Form expert handicapper and analyst Marcus Hersh handicaps the Thursday, May 28 racing card at Churchill Downs, including his projected 1-2-3 finishers. His best bet of the day comes from Race 5.
Also, view FREE DRF Past Performances for today’s Race of the Day.
BEST BET: Awesome Ruta (5th race)
Fifth Race
1. Awesome Ruta
2. Carolo Rapido
3. Calycanthus
Was more concerned about AWESOME RUTA cutting back to the one-turn mile last out than with him stretching to 1 1/8 miles here. Very strong in three races since being haltered for just $20K, and he appears to be going about his business with utmost confidence. The 5yo actually showed some real talent way back at age 2, and even was (over) entered in the Louisiana Derby, where he did not disgrace himself at odds of 220-1. Sharp win 5/7 and worked back in slop 5/21 – and will be primed for this 5/28 race despite the fairly quick turnaround. CAROLO RAPIDO back on even shorter rest than the top pick – which I don’t actually much mind in this case. Exits a $62.5K claimer – albeit not the strongest race at the class level – where Classic Car Wash popped back into better form while Carolo Rapido closed steadily into a slow tempo. Think there could be some good things to come from this horse, especially out at this 9f trip or thereabout, but wonder if he hits his high point today. CALYCANTHUS not a bad try facing the top pick last out if you believe – as seems likely – that one-turn mile is not his favorite kind of race.
Here are Marcus’s thoughts on the other seven races on Thursday’s Churchill Downs card.
First Race
1. Money Man Mike
2. Vissino
3. La Belle Vie
No strong opinions at all in this restricted MSW, and felt ambivalent enough about any of the available work video available to guess at IND shipper MONEY MAN MIKE, for whom there’s no work video at all. Quick drills, FWIW, for a barn that’s had steady success with debut runners. They got I Ortiz to ride, and in this group, it’s hard to imagine the horse being as high as the listed odds. VISSINO looks like he’s working “fine” from what we are able to see – but not sure how he’s going to cope with the rail draw in his first start. LA BELLE VIE was scratched from a similar spot one week ago. As usually the case with this barn, hard to get a read on the work video available – my lean would be “not so great,” but that’s only a lean.
Second Race
1. Timing Difference
2. Social Hour
3. Attersee
Big stage-castoff TIMING DIFFERENCE didn’t show much on turf three back, but really liked what I saw in his two one-turn races last form cycle, and even the two-turn try – give circumstances and competition — in his lone start after being claimed was decent. Connections freshened him up for Churchill and what I imagine they hope to be a very productive spring – summer campaign. The work video I saw showed a very confident horse moving strongly. He’ll need to run down SOCIAL HOUR, who probably shakes loose on the lead, though he need not be pushed forward at all from this cozy wide draw. He’s just proven to be a horse, though, that doesn’t really close the deal even when he runs to his better form, and that’s not what I want a short price, especially with another horse, to me, offering much better value. ATTERSEE might truly be on the way up – rather than just blipping a pair of higher-level performances in his last two – and has worked steadily while kept fresh for this post-April 16 last start.
Third Race
1. Exile
2. Luxor Magic
3. Epic Reign
Another 2yo maiden about which I struggled to form a solid opinion. Noted EXILE when actually watching the M Casse firster Vissino (in today’s first race) work out of the gate May 8 – Exile broke better and went better throughout – actually caught my as eye as one to watch even before realizing she also debuted on this card. LUXOR MAGIC figures to be a price, and I’m not quite sure what to make of her, but the two work videos from KEE we have on this firster probably were the best breezing I found in this race. She worked well — solidly, professionally, competitively but not too aggressively – while inside two mates, and in another, placed outside, cruised up to and past two more in a relaxed manner while not being asked for a lot. Can’t tell much on the limited video regarding the two Asmussen-trained firsters, EPIC REIGN and Lead by Example. Neither would be a surprise.
Fourth Race
1. El Ramundo
2. Arabian Power
3. Prince of Light
Familiar with a horse named Poppy the Princess? By Cairo Prince out of Rocket Girl – won debut, a 2-turn Ellis Park MSW, at 33-1. No fluke! Came right back with a good second in a KEE N2L allowance. Her older sister, Miss Peabody, by Anchor Down, debuted September 2021 and ran on from last off 11 to finish second in a Kentucky Downs MSW. Those horses, both trained by T Newton (as was the mare), the only two to race out of Rocket Girl until EL RAMUNDO. HPT work pattern bodes well for readiness. Could take a shot at a big price. ARABIAN POWER’s only sib to race was a dirt horse, as was the dam, but AP is by Not This Time, obviously a powerful grass influence. I don’t know if they’re really interested in grass or are hoping for a rain-off, but do know the drop from the debut MSW to $50K maiden-claiming with second-time starting 4yo doesn’t seem all that negative. First blinkers, first-time gelding – would prefer him over likely chalk PRINCE OF LIGHT, who will look good to much of the betting market, as was the case when he lost three other times as the favorite.
Sixth Race
1. Feminism
2. French Blue
3. Our Two Girls
I’ll eat the underlaid short price on second-timer FEMINISM, who, in retrospect, was a great price debuting at 7-2. Not an obviously tough trip there, but not so easy, either. Went up to press the leader in the early stages, had a horse come outside her and put her in a pressured spot between rivals – she had no issue doing that, and forged strongly to the lead after turning for home – didn’t just win going away, but did so under relatively light pressure and with a strong gallop-out suggesting she had plenty left. Really liked the 5/10 work video – think the impressive speed figure properly represents her. Expected more from FRENCH BLUE earlier this month – but also expected her to stick much closer to the lead there. Revisiting my initial idea that the debut speed figure did not really reflect the strength of that victory – now wondering if she’s just somewhat limited, but even if true, she still can fill out the exacta. OUR TWO GIRLS the right sort to run on behind tiring pace players and grab a share. She’s not good enough to beat Feminism if Feminism is who she appears to be.
Seventh Race
1. We’re in Trouble
2. Eakly
3. Murdock
WE’RE IN TROUBLE has five turf SoCal turf sprints that strongly suggest he fits this spot. He ended his last cycle with a dirt experiment that bore no fruit and a try at quirky Kentucky Downs – and he might not have been at his best then, even if capable of handling that course. In the 6f turf race at SA he made an early inside move to get into somewhat better position, but victorious Virat – above average for that class level – got a perfect pressing trip. Maybe I’m imagining it, but the horse I saw in a recent CD work video – thought he breezed quite well – looked like a much more mature and imposing animal than the one chasing Virat home. At this point, it would be hard to trust EAKLY to go out and win a race – since he seems intent on doing otherwise – but he has consistently delivered turf-sprint showings that will make him competitive. MURDOCK looks like the solid favorite off the two big speed figures and last-out KEE win – a win that forces him to climb a level on the class ladder. Superficially – and perhaps deeper than that – he looks capable of taking that jump, and his FG comeback run has come back a good race, but this horse did miss the better part of two years and took a month to work back after his last race. I’m nitpicking, but that’s what one’s supposed to do with short prices.
Eighth Race
1. Getaholdayourself
2. Enticing Moves
3. Nightmare Fuel
Hard to know where to go in this $30K maiden-claimer – but just know I don’t want to go to 6-5 morning-line favorite Nightmare Fuel on top, though giving her a better chance as potential lone speed than the horse who finished four lengths ahead of her last out at KEE, In for A Spin. Couple no-hopers entered, but one would have to cast a wide net to feel confident in having ample coverage. Doubt GETAHOLDAYOURSELF’s lone start sprinting and on dirt, her debut, truly represents her capability therein. The cut-back from routes to a sprint looks like it could suit, but work video of the two KEE breezes offers strong hints why they moved her quickly to turf. That said, it’s not like she worked badly, and if the form does transfer across surface and distance, she’s a likely strong contender at a price. ENTICING MOVES debuted last fall in a $20K maiden claimer that several months later looks about standard for the class level. She did post the fastest final furlong (recorded based on chart call as 12.72) before quickly galloping out well in front – a mildly appealing race considering the class level! Worked back three times after – maybe not loving TP synthetic? Gotten on solid pattern this spring, though video of two drills tells us little. At the price, worth considering. And maybe NIGHTMARE FUEL just “needed” the comeback run, will shake loose and take care of business down to lowest class level in her third start. Maybe.
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