Daily Racing Form expert handicapper and analyst Patrick Moquin handicaps the Thursday, July 9 racing card at Colonial Downs, including his projected 1-2-3 finishers. His best bet of the day comes from Race 2.
Also, view FREE DRF Past Performances for today’s Race of the Day.
BEST BET: Our Two Girls (2nd race)
Second Race
1. Our Two Girls
2. Wickedwithbourbon
3. Raspberry
OUR TWO GIRLS is a clear standout shipping to Colonial for McPeek, having mixed it up rather well against first-level allowance competition in Kentucky in her last two starts; she also earned a career-best 83 Beyer while running third in a $150,000 stakes at Oaklawn in March, so there’s a lot to like about this one coming off sort rest; she fired off a longer layoff to win in February. WICKEDWITHBOURBON entered statebred stakes competition in Louisiana in November and finished in the money in three straight starts before going on the shelf in early January; this isn’t technically her 3-year-old debut, but it might as well be, because she figures as a strong improvement candidate with maturation during the break. RASPBERRY switched back to dirt at Horseshoe Indianapolis in May and dominated a small field by 6 1/4 lengths with a 69 Beyer; there are reasons to knock that front-running effort, at least in relation to others in this field, but she got a short break after that and could improve naturally into one who could hang with these.
Here are Patrick’s thoughts on the other seven races on Thursday’s Colonial Downs card.
First Race
1. Cuddler
2. Forty Seven Smoker
3. Gotta Be Da Shoes
CUDDLER returned from a long layoff in late June and was rained off the turf, leading to a rough defeat on a muddy track; that race can be forgiven for the moment and she should be more competitive on turf, a surface she has not tried since running at Colonial last August; she finished second in both of those attempts before heading to Charles Town in the fall, where she was not quite as sharp. FORTY SEVEN SMOKER earned a deflated 36 Beyer in a distant runner-up finish last time out, but there’s still reason to believe she can run back to the 52 Beyer she earned in a more competitive outing on May 30; Shuman has tried to get her in since her last start but has not managed; this seems to be an appropriate spot. GOTTA BE DA SHOES had yet another tough trip last time out that seemed to prevent her from notching a long overdue maiden victory; it’s easy to say she can improve off such a start, but this is not the first time she has encountered a bad trip and she quietly seems to be racking up excuses; with a clean trip, she could be an easy winner.
Third Race
1. Toque
2. Fortune Hill
3. Potcake
TOQUE will get some class relief in his 4-year-old debut for Nagle, who doesn’t send them out with much intent off long breaks but also excels in turf sprints; Ruiz will take the mount on one who seemed to come back in November last year with far more to offer, only to be go back on the shelf without grass to run on ofer the winter; he also had trouble in that start and might have been even sharper; wouldn’t be a surprise. FORTUNE HILL returned from a short break in June and rallied for second in a maiden claimer at Laurel; this is arguably an easier spot and he could improve in his second start back on the grass; Flores has kept him moving in the right direction since his debut last May. POTCAKE will have to draw into this field, but the gelding is an obvious candidate coming off a short break; he earned matching 58 Beyers in October, October again, and May, so there isn’t much reason to question his form at this point; the more serious concern is that he has a lot of tries and seems to have a bit of a win-shy habit.
Fourth Race
1. Cut the Cord
2. Bigtonten
3. Be Better
CUT THE CORD switched to turf and held his own at long odds in his last two starts, but the gelding’s game has always been dirt and he will switch back to it for Gaudet; he won a highly competitive race at Laurel with a 74 Beyer in February before a more disappointing effort in April; he has shown enough on the grass since to suggest he’s back in good spirits. BIGTONTEN might fly under the radar here after a pair of disappointing starts, but the gelding has recovered his form before and ran some races earlier this year that fit just fine; Capuano will give him a little more distance after probably going too short at seven furlongs last time out; that cutback in late May might have cost him a better effort that would have earned him respect in this field. BE BETTER has only won one race in the last year and it was inarguably softer than this, but the 7-year-old has maintained competitive form for the better part of a year; he might not be what he once was, but he’s still capable of popping on his best day and could land in the mix.
Fifth Race
1. Christmas Jones
2. Pegster
3. Why
CHRISTMAS JONES is an obvious front-running candidate and finally made the most of that running style against maiden claimers last time out; Brion has struggled to get this filly to run her best race consistently, but adding distance this year seems to have helped; she could be the lone speed in her first start against winners. PEGSTER has not won since July last year, but the filly was leading in the stretch last time out before getting sniped in a starter/optional claiming race at Delaware; the filly often gives herself too much to do in spots where she is good enough to win on pure ability; still, a minor prize seems like the floor. WHY is an intriguing contender who made her 3-year-old debut on Jan. 2 and has not run since; she won that maiden claimer at Gulfstream by open lengths, so she was clearly improving for Cibelli; it could be worth an investment to see how far she has come in training since.
Sixth Race
1. Pretty Shy
2. In Timing
3. Let Her Pass By
PRETTY SHY returned from a short layoff for new trainer Sacco last time out and seemed competitive while cutting back to five furlongs; she closed from well back at a distance that was probably a tad too short, finishing fourth by 1 1/2 lengths with a 62 Beyer; maybe 5 1/2 furlongs is too short at Colonial, but there’s also reason to suspect she can come back sharper in her second start off the layoff. IN TIMING showed regressed form in her last two starts at Gulfstream, but one of those was against much tougher and the other was on synthetic; Crichton seems to have found a more forgiving spot on her preferred surface this time; it is not too concerning that she has not found himself against winners yet, and her front-running style could be an asset from her post. LET HER PASS BY has finished second or better in her last four starts and took a nice step forward last time out against winners, stalking well to finish second by a half-length at Laurel with a 63 Beyer; that performance puts her in the mix for Sillaman.
Seventh Race
1. Smart Uncle
2. Jolly by Golly
3. Empire of Glory
SMART UNCLE will switch back to flat racing for Fisher, who has successfully made this move at Colonial in several notable examples; it helps that this gelding has some wonderful flat performances from around the same time last year, including an 81 Beyer against maidens at Delaware and a game third in a first-level allowance at Kentucky Downs; he has not shown anything over hurdles to suggest he is any worse for wear at this point. JOLLY BY GOLLY is switching to turf at an interesting time for Ness; he has run for the trainer once since getting claimed in late May, and that performance was a six-length romp at Laurel on June 20; Ness absolutely has options for this one on dirt, so it’s interesting that he would choose this moment to take the chance on grass; he has a win on the surface, albeit further back in his career. EMPIRE OF GLORY had a nice stint at Delaware in May and June, winning a first-level allowance on dirt closing for third on the grass with a matching 74 Beyer last time out; Delacour seems to have plenty of options for the improving gelding.
Eighth Race
1. Cuda Cutie
2. In Her Glory
3. Grade A
CUDA CUTIE switched to turf last time out and nearly won a first-level allowance at Horseshoe Indianapolis, coming up a head short with a 74 Beyer; the filly is an obvious front-running candidate regardless of the surface and romped against Arkansas-breds on the dirt in May; West doesn’t often ship to these parts and is likely bringing a live one; the running style tempers concerns about the post. IN HER GLORY tried the dirt in November but clearly didn’t appreciate, so Trombetta put the filly on the shelf over the winter and will now bring her back on the turf; she showed a ton of ability in some photo finishes as a juvenile, one of which she won against maidens; she came up just short in the other two and might have a habit to shake, but she has had time to work past it during s long break. GRADE A made her 4-year-old debut on the synthetic at Woodbine in late May and seemed to get right back to business, finishing second with a 73 Beyer; she has not won since February 2025 but has finished in the money four times since, including a stakes at Ellis.
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