Daily Racing Form expert handicapper and analyst Mike Beer handicaps the Thursday, July 9 racing card at Saratoga, including his projected 1-2-3 finishers. His best bet of the day comes from Race 6.
Also, view FREE DRF Past Performances for today’s Race of the Day.
BEST BET: Ashikidah (6th race)
Sixth Race
1. Ashikidah
2. Brisbane
3. Play With Fire
ASHIKIDAH improved through racing as a 3yo in France and ended that campaign with back-to-back strong efforts, including a near-miss in a stakes race against seventeen rivals; likely a nice fit here if ready off the layoff for the new connections. BRISBANE ran well in all four starts to begin her career in France; missed 18 months before returning to post an impressive win in her stateside debut, then missed another 600 days; got in a useful run when trying a wide move from late in stakes company last time; dangerous putting races together. PLAY WITH FIRE got wired by a talented rival in the Wild Applause over this course and distance last summer, then endured a no-chance trip in her next start; made a run to contention in midstretch and wasn’t good enough in Grade 2 company before the layoff; starts back in her available condition.
Here are Mike’s thoughts on the other eight races on Thursday’s Saratoga card.
First Race
1. Bow Draw
2. Snide
3. Tough Street
BOW DRAW was up in class for his first two starts off the Asmussen claim; dropped in price but landed in another tough race when no match for the speedy Kerry’s Kiss (won a stakes race in her next start with a 97 Beyer), then was only second-best to an odds-on winner last time; has the kind of tactical speed that is required out of the chute, and looks like a nice fit here. SNIDE has hit the board in all four prior starts going this distance (two wins), and she has the speed to make the lead from the rail in this spot – assuming a clean break; in good form right now. TOUGH STREET was with the grain of a speed-favoring track when winning over this track and trip with a 96 Beyer two summers ago; she hasn’t won since then, though she has been keeping tougher company right along; takes a step back in class for the third start off the layoff.
Second Race
1. Beach Sandals
2. Pirate Ship
3. Excessif
BEACH SANDALS was only second-best after showing speed in his dirt sprint debut at Churchill; shipped here to make his second start, where he faced recent Sanford winner Booked and never factored after getting outpaced early; bred for turf. PIRATE SHIP is by an underrated and versatile sire in Midshipman; this is the female family of top turf horse Gio Ponti; consistent series of breezes showing for a trainer who can win first-out. EXCESSIF is also a well-connected firster with a big turf pedigree – the dam was a stakes winner on grass, and the second dam, a Grade 3 winner on turf, is a sister to millionaire turf filly Ruhterienne; might want a bit more ground than this.
Third Race
1. Cold Spell
2. Rose to Riches
3. Fletch’s Rockette
COLD SPELL debuted in a very fast race, where she was only second-best to the speedy Mashallah (106 Beyer for that effort, recently made it 2 for 2 sprinting when winning on opening day here with a 96); she failed to break sharply from the gate and was once again only second-best when last seen on the Belmont Stakes undercard; tries again. ROSE TO RICHES made her lone start as a 2yo routing on turf, where she tried gamely and flattened out late after a good trip; starts back on dirt with a versatile pedigree and Lasix on. FLETCH’S ROCKETTE debuted in a strong MSW field here as a 2yo; made her second start six months later going long, where she faced another talented rival in Prom Queen; back to dirt and turning back to sprint after showing speed on turf last time.
Fourth Race
1. Margarita Molly
2. Amelia’s Echo
3. Miss American Pie
MARGARITA MOLLY ran well in each of her first three starts without winning; scored an easy maiden win when stretched to a mile for her final start as a 2yo; takes a needed class drop and picks up Prat after proving to be no match for some better horses in her first two starts off the bench. AMELIA’S ECHO dropped to the bottom to get the overdue maiden win late last year in California; just missed in her first two starts this year at Oaklawn, and she was no match for a class-dropping, blowout winner when in as an MTO for the NY debut; should be more competitive in this spot. MISS AMERICAN PIE finished gamely to break her maiden going seven early last year, then went favored over – but was no match for – the speedy Bam’s Bliss Kiss (six wins since, 91 Beyer top) in her next start; back to dirt and putting blinkers on to make her second start off the claim.
Fifth Race
1. Soaring High
2. Brunch With Amy
3. Madam Opus
SOARING HIGH went favored over a good-looking field in the debut as a 2yo; was a much-improved winner when stretched out for her first start this year, then acquitted herself well when in a very tough allowance race last time; holds the upside, but has to face older horses for the first time. BRUNCH WITH AMY has been racing in good form since being claimed by Linda Rice back in November in Kentucky; she hasn’t earned a breakthrough figure yet, but likely would have finished closer last time if not for being blocked in the late stages. MADAM OPUS looked like she might have needed that first start when getting a wide trip as the favorite; flashed more speed and improved as expected to win her second start, though she has been away for almost 500 days since then.
Seventh Race
1. Red State
2. Timaeus
3. Burninhunkoflove
RED STATE earned figures of 96 and 91 for his two wins early last year at Oaklawn, then got in way too tough in his next two starts before the layoff; just missed with some class relief last time; drops again. TIMAEUS ran well in each of his first two starts off the claim for this trainer while rallying from off the pace, and he projects to have something to run at late in this spot as he drops in class. BURNINHUNKOFLOVE has speed, though he is also capable from just off the pace, though he will need to get back in form in his first start for Potts – 5 for his last 19, 19%, $3.48 ROI first off the claim.
Eighth Race
1. Bridle a Butterfly
2. Counter Move
3. Global Prosperity
BRIDLE A BUTTERFLY was a stakes winner over this distance last spring in Kentucky; placed in another stakes in his next turf start, then was given a layoff after trying a Grade 1 at Kentucky Downs; closing sprinter turns back off the claim after failing to improve going longer in his last two starts. COUNTER MOVE took a while to get to the turf, but he improved to an 87 Beyer winning his first start on the surface two back; dueled and only weakened late in a race that was won by a longshot closer last time; gets to go shorter, though there is some speed to his inside in this spot. GLOBAL PROSPERITY is also turning back while making his first start off the claim in this spot; hasn’t sprinted since just missing with an 81 Beyer in a tougher spot here last summer.
Ninth Race
1. Pay the Piper
2. Coordinator
3. C J Star
PAY THE PIPER raced greenly from the back before gaining late ground in a useful debut effort earlier this year in Florida; never got to run when derailed by an equipment issue from the gate in his next appearance; might be set to improve now as he returns from a freshening as a new gelding. COORDINATOR was the lone firster in the field when finishing behind West End Kid (won his next two, including a Grade 3, then just missed in a Grade 1 here last weekend) and Heeere’s Johnny (stakes winner here last Friday) in the Keeneland debut; could only chase another talented rival to no avail when second-best at a short price last time; tries again. C J STAR wound up last after taking a hard bump at the start and wound up wide as a longshot wired the field in his 3yo debut; wound up pulling another wide trip when coming up short as the favorite last time; needs a better trip as he breaks from a tough outside post.
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