Daily Racing Form expert handicapper and analyst Marcus Hersh handicaps the Friday, April 17 racing card at Keeneland, including his projected 1-2-3 finishers. His best bet of the day comes from Race 6.
Also, view FREE DRF Past Performances for today’s Race of the Day.
BEST BET: Little Ni (6th race)
Sixth Race
1. Little Ni
2. American Monarch
3. Bold Journey
LITTLE NI way off form in his last two races during 2025 but clearly can win with one of his A races. Big race last summer at SAR, returning from an even longer layoff. We can’t see the training center works that got him ready for his move north and return to action, but the 3/28 breeze at CD offered solid signs he’s ready to fire fresh again. AMERICAN MONARCH is 8 but still might have a touch of upside on the day, making his third straight dirt start after campaigning throughout 2025 on turf. Strong outside run and was very much getting to the capable winner in his last-start Gulf run. Kept to the Mott string at GP rather than PAY – looked to be holding form in his 3/22 drill there. AM’s stablemate BOLD JOURNEY will be the shorter price of the two, perhaps with some justification, but I can’t quite see his last start matching the speed figure. Heavy favorite didn’t show his best, checking in third, and runner-up Full Moon Madness not the sprinter he once was. Race flowed BJ’s way, and he feels like an underlay here.
Here are Marcus’ thoughts on the other nine races on Friday’s Keeneland card.
First Race
1. Starwood
2. She’s Gotta Go
3. Buckeye Bombshell
STARWOOD been working steadily since January, legging up at Fair Grounds, finishing touches at CD. Granted, the drop from MSWs to $50K limits the imaginable upside, but she seems well meant. In SoCal, they cut her back to a sprint for lone dirt try, but also note she debuted in a route – ought to stay. Lone work video April 4 – decent enough – not asked for much of anything until going into the clubhouse turn, showed some spark, kept going out like a fit horse. SHE’S GOTTA GO improved markedly stretched out from two sprints to a third-start route, beaten a half-length at this class level. Dirt debut much worse than two Tapeta starts, but think she could be at least as good on dirt. Two work videos from CD, where she went inside Classy’n Connected — a more experienced, faster, higher-class horse than these — and more than held her own. On the other hand, FWIW, BUCKEYE BOMBSHELL in a recent drill with an apparently inferior horse could not keep up at the wire. On the positive side, she was scratched last week from a maiden $30K to go instead for $50K here.
Second Race
1. Starship Godiva
2. Sutura
3. Maxi Maxi
STARSHIP GODIVA is by very pricey stallion Tapit, yet fetched a relative pittance at auction, $15K. But that seems like water under the bridge at this point. Kept to a long, strong work pattern over the winter and into the spring, and debuts in a restricted MSW. Lone work video from back in mid-February – horse named Beijing was outside of her and went a little bit better, but not much. That was two months ago, and Beiking debuted with a pretty good second in a Colonial MSW. SUTURA a private purchase since her last race at Tampa. Debut on dirt she was second to May Gray, who flopped in a KEE turf route this meet, but ran a big figure on the day. Beaten last out on turf by a sharp M Clement-trained winner who has not run back. No work video since coming to KY. Does 7f work for her? MAXI MAXI a decent third debuting over TP Tapeta (facing just 6 foes) in a race at this level. Worked over KEE dirt from gate with two other horses, quick time, came outside and was even at wire with unraced Calumet-owned, B Walsh-trained horse named Cierto – hot a bad drill.
Third Race
1. Yes It Tiz
2. Cat’s Cave
3. Senza Parole
YES IT TIZ’s two dirt wins were grinding, 9f scores last fall in KY, but she did go from an off-turf MSW win to beat N2L allowance foes over the KEE main track. Comely S. a throwout, caught a wet track in a meh renewal of the Houston Ladies Classic, though solid enough third, and while sixth finished with decent energy last out on Gulfstream turf. Work video from April 11 at Payson and the visual definitely surpasses the modest time. CAT’S CAVE is pretty consistent and consistently competitive in races of quality similar to this one. Cleared her N2X allowance condition running fresh off a winter break at KEE, as she does here. Probably not a horse who wants to sit behind, but while she might not be fast enough to lead this race, the outside draw gives rider options. Correlation is not causation, but there’s at least correlation between SENZA PAROLE’s lesser showings and the absence of Lasix. Back on Lasix here, but she’s never tried two turns, drawn inside other pace, and will be a short price.
Fourth Race
1. Good Graces
2. Lunar Loop
3. Mighty Nora
GOOD GRACES wintered at the CDT before coming to KEE for her four most recent drills – strong work pattern indeed. Lone video comes April 10 – started several lengths behind Channelview, a four-start maiden with modest MSW form, and buzzed right past her well before wire, continuing to draw clear. Not the most beautiful filly to watch, but might be effective nonetheless. One grass-breeze video in Florida from another firster, LUNAR LOOP, who looked better on dirt in her lone KEE drill. Broke well and had several early lengths on an unraced work-mate, finished solidly. MIGHTY NORA is acting like a stretch to 7f could help her leave the maiden ranks after five starts. Faced open MSW foes last out at OP, so this is at least technically a class drop.
Fifth Race
1. Murdock
2. Ambitiously
3. Pivotal Moment
If MURDOCK were going to be some big favorite, I’d lean against him, but the 3-1 morning line seems about right, as bettors go for a couple horse who ran well enough at Gulfstream. Blowout debut score, then no racing for the better part of two years (!) before taking plenty of betting switched to turf in the FG comeback start. Ran a winning race, but ran into another layoff horse who hit 100 on the Beyer scale – not all that far-fetched when you look at the margins between second and third, and third and fourth. Almost sided with AMBITIOUSLY at a longer price. His two turf races were routes, and, apparently, this is a sprinter. Was considerably best last time, and both the runner-up there and the horse who beat him two back have returned to solidly validate that form. PIVOTAL MOMENT dead-heated with Innate last out at GP, where both ran into some traffic. I’m still not quite buying either of them.
Seventh Race
1. Next Up
2. Cara Felce
3. Dozen Diamonds
NEXT UP is 6-5 on the line and looks a likely winner if she can transfer that turf and synthetic form to dirt – and the look of recent work video strongly suggests she will. CARA FELCE claimed on 2/20 for a $30K tag, runs back under starter conditions. She’s an N2L horse in an N3L starter, which, in this case, I don’t actually mind. Never tried dirt, but new connections have gotten plenty of time to assess her dirt performance – she must be sitting on ready. DOZEN DIAMONDS hasn’t won in forever but generally “fast enough” to hit the board in a race lacking depth.
Eighth Race
1. Double Talker
2. Unitas
3. Beer Run
DOUBLE TALKER the longer price between two W Ward-trained entrants in their common debut a year ago – the shorter price has never shown much of anything, and that wasn’t a very strong heat. Came back in CD stake won by stable-mate, on the shelf for months. Taking him on top at a price here because to my relatively untrained eye, the way he moves in turf work is far, far better than dirt. Some combination of second-start improvement, switch from dirt to turf, and addition of blinkers got UNITAS a solid if considerably less than spectacular MSW win last out at FG. 4yo who took a long time to make the races clearly has been aimed at this spot for the better part of seven weeks, drew very well on the outside. You might at some point have lost your beer money betting on BEER RUN, who consistently runs fast enough to win and consistently does not quite get there.
Ninth Race
1. Gin Gin
2. Alpine Princess
3. Aye Candy
GIN GIN won this race at 38-1 a year ago – and was no fluke. Didn’t get back to her Ddogdare level in the second start, was worse again in third start, but freshened and fired fresh, capturing the G1 Spinster last fall, beating the one-two finishers in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff. Not sure how GG would’ve fared in that race, but breaking through the gate pre-start appeared to rattle her – the race is a toss. Very encouraging work video from Florida and Kentucky, and at her best – which I expect – she’s just better than her main contenders. ALPINE PRINCESS looks similar on Beyer figures, but to me has never run a race as good as the two Gin Gin turned in last year at KEE. Did run into subsequent G1 Apple Blossom heroine Claret Beret when last seen in the Royal Delta, and has been freshened since for this. New Mexico invader AYE CANDY could prove much more capable than her recent speed figures suggest. I like her pattern of development. Barn ran second last weekend in the Lexington with this filly’s brother.
Tenth Race
1. Amani’s Music
2. She Wants War
3. Fool’s Adventure
AMANI’S MUSIC probably would’ve cleared the maiden ranks in her debut if she’d seen the winner in time. That horse was some four paths off the fence, while AM was glued to it. She responded at the last moment, lost by a very narrow margin, quickly back in front on the gallop out. Was entered there for turf. No video of the Payson turf work, but the post-start dirt breeze there offered encouraging signs. SHE WANTS WAR, to my relatively untrained eye, has looked like the better W Ward-trained prospect for this spot than her unraced stable-mate FOOL’S ADVENTURE – though I readily admit, works from this barn can be tough to read. I’d think SWW might take a little bit more relaxed approach as a more mature filly than she did as an early 2yo.
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