MLB Best Bets Today September 9
After a bunch of day games on Monday for the Labor Day holiday, most of the slate on Wednesday is made up of evening games. There are some early starts on the West Coast and a couple back east, but for the most part, we have all day to think about the MLB card. At least in between thinking about the start of the NFL season with Patriots vs. Seahawks. As we get the NFL back and keep looking at college football, don’t forget about MLB and the betting opportunities there.
Note: Due to a death in the family, the MLB article might not come out every day this week/weekend.
I’ll be posting my daily best bets Monday-Saturday with a Sunday Night Baseball preview on Sunday, as all the day games make it tough to get something out with lead time out here in Las Vegas. All lines are from DraftKings and are current at the time of publish. Please take the initiative to SHOP AROUND for the best odds. It matters. A lot.
One new offering this baseball season is our Opta AI Player Prop Projections. They are for VSiN Pro Subscribers only, so you can check out our current offers here. Zachary Cohen will be using those projections and his own handicapping to write up MLB player props.
Greg Peterson will have his best bets posted the night before and you can also check out his daily lines to see what looks to be off-market.
Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats. Check out our MLB tools powered by Ballpark Pal: Strikeout Projections, Park Factors, and YRFI Report.
Here are the MLB best bets today for September 9:
Cubs vs. Brewers Prediction
Pick: Cubs +109
We should have a pretty good pitching matchup here between Kevin Gausman and Logan Henderson. But, I do think that there’s some value on the Cubs side of the ledger here.
Henderson and Gausman matched up last time out and it was quite the pitcher’s duel. Henderson allowed two runs on just three hits with seven strikeouts. Gausman allowed one run on five hits with nine strikeouts. They’ll match up again tonight.
Gausman has thrown the ball better with the Cubs than his ERA would indicate, as he owns a 4.37 ERA, but a 3.70 xERA and a 3.84 FIP over 35 innings of work. He has had two blow-ups, so he’s a bit of a high-variance guy, allowing six and five runs among his six starts, but he’s allowed six runs across his other four starts. It’s all about which Gausman we get here in this spot.
Over 15 starts, Henderson has racked up an 87.6% LOB% and has limited the opposition to a .211 BABIP. I can’t help but wonder if a Cubs lineup that has been very good in the second half and throughout most of the season is able to deal some of the regression that we see in his profile.
Both teams used a bunch of relief arms on Tuesday, so I see the bullpens as a toss-up for the most part, as some of the high-leverage guys aren’t available.
To be honest, both teams are just so evenly matched, with the Cubs having the offensive edge, mostly due to their power production, and they’re a reasonable play in an underdog role of this size as a result.
Pirates vs. White Sox Prediction
Pick: Pirates 1st Inning (+320) (3-Way line)
Lake Bachar gets the start here for the Pirates and Davis Martin goes for the White Sox. This is not a market that I’ve looked at a ton, but there are some good reasons to like this one.
Let’s start with the fact that Martin has had some rough first innings this season. Over 25 starts, he’s allowed 16 runs in the first inning, leading to a 5.79 ERA. Opposing batters are slashing .263/.317/.474, which is his second-highest SLG against by inning if we eliminate the seventh inning, in which he’s only faced 16 batters.
Bachar, who was acquired by the Pirates at the Trade Deadline from the Marlins, has made eight starts and has given up two runs in the first, holding the opposition to a .080/.281/.080 slash. As a starter, Bachar has only allowed four runs overall over 18.2 innings of work. With the Pirates, he’s gone three innings twice and 2.1 innings multiple times, so he’s given them a little bit more length than a true opener.
If you don’t like the 3-Way bet, you can look at a 1st 3 Innings moneyline with the Pirates, but I think this one has a really good return on a play that could work out favorably. This bet is under 1st Inning at DraftKings and then 1st Inning Result.
