Mike Somich’s Santa Anita and Gulfstream Picks:

With the turn of the calendar to February, all eyes are now on the Kentucky Derby trail. This weekend, we have preps from both Gulfstream Park and Santa Anita, which includes the return of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile champion Citizen Bull!

 

Santa Anita, Race #4, The Robert B. Lewis

Not surprisingly, a Santa Anita prep race features the majority of the field trained by Bob Baffert, including #2 Citizen Bull, who is the morning line favorite at 6/5. He was able to go gate-to-wire in back-to-back races to end last year’s season. That could cause a problem with other speed signed on here to his outside. 

It’s unlikely #3 Rodriguez, also trained by Baffert presses, but #4 Clock Tower should pose an early threat. Clock Tower has been on the lead in all five of his starts to date, and his only path to victory is to try to do so again. 

#5 Valentines Candy is way out of his league, so we can go ahead and throw him out. Let’s focus on the best price Baffert here, 

#1 Madaket Road debuted in a graded stakes late last year before dropping to maiden company to get his first win. He has not run two turns to this point, but he did come from off the pace in his victory. He’s bred to get the mile with no problem, so I do not have any concerns there, and the trip should be an absolute beaut. Let’s take a shot with the longest price Baffert.

Santa Anita Pick: $50 Win #1

Gulfstream Park, Race #11, The Holy Bull Stakes

The second leg on the Florida road to the Derby stretches out the distance to one mile and a sixteenth. That added distance could be a big problem for the Mucho Macho Man winner #4 Guns Loaded who set a fairly soft pace and barely made it to the wire in front of a horse who isn’t great. His trainer, Jose D’Angelo, said that he was waiting to be challenged and he won the gallop out, so it’s possible he has more in the tank. This test will be tougher with pace pressure. 

The favorite is #2 Ferocious, who returns to the track after a troubled run in the Breeders’ Cup, where he did take money. He’s going to be coming from off the pace and ran a very good second to a hyped-up horse in the Breeders Futurity at Keeneland. He’s got the talent to win but may need a start here, so I’m not willing to take a short price. 

#3 Tappan Street enters the race for Brad Cox off a dominant debut here in December. He cost a pretty penny, $1,000,000 at auction, so the expectations have been there since the jump, and he is bred to get the distance. He was quick in the morning and showed speed on debut. That should put him in a prime position to strike if he is good enough. 

#7 Burnham Square is the price I am most interested in. He’s improved in each of his three starts and closed extremely well going today’s distance two back at Churchill. That effort could play well today with a pace that should be hot.,

Gulfstream Pick: $50 Win #3

Other bets:
Gulfstream Park, Race #8 – $50 Win #2
Santa Anita, Race #6 – $50 Win #3

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