2026 Home Run Derby
Major League Baseball’s ultimate display of dingers is on Monday, July 13 at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, PA with the 2026 Home Run Derby. The annual contest the night prior to the All-Star Game has undergone another set of rule changes that bettors need to be aware of before locking in their wagers.
How to Watch the 2026 Home Run Derby
When: Monday, July 13, 8 p.m. ET
Where: Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, PA
Network: ESPN/ESPN 2
2026 Home Run Derby Participants
- Jac Caglianone (Royals)
- Junior Caminero (Rays)
- Willson Contreras (Red Sox)
- Bryce Harper (Phillies)
- Munetaka Murakami (White Sox)
- Ben Rice (Yankees)
- Kyle Schwarber (Phillies)
- Jordan Walker (Cardinals)
The biased hometown faithful will certainly be rooting for Harper and Schwarber, as this marks the first time teammates will participate together since Schwarber and Javier Baez back in 2018. Ironically, Schwarber lost to Harper in the finals that year.
Caminero, in the midst of a ridiculous run of hitting long balls during the regular season, would be the first Tampa Bay Ray to win the Home Run Derby if he is successful. The Royals and, incredibly, the Cardinals also have never had a player win.
The last and only White Sox hitter to win was Frank Thomas back in 1995. David Ortiz remains the only Red Sox slugger to win, which happened back in 2010.
2026 Home Run Derby Rules
As mentioned, there are some very significant rule changes that should benefit both hitters and viewers. The biggest benefit may be for the children trying not to get hit in the head in the outfield.
The Derby is going back to swings as opposed to a time limit. That means viewers and spectators will actually have the chance to enjoy this incredible display of power rather than watch for the next pitch to get hit.
Here are the rule changes:
- Players will get 20 swings in Round 1 and 15 swings in the Semifinals and the Final Round
- If the final swing is a home run, the batter will get to keep swinging until he has a ball that is not a home run
- Players with the top four home run totals advance to the Semifinals, where the field will go head-to-head with 1 vs. 4 and 2 vs. 3, seeded based on the HR totals
- Ties in the first round will be broken by the longest home run distance; ties in the Semifinals or Finals will be broken by a three-swing swing-off
All of these changes are great. Players were certainly tiring themselves out during the timed format and their respective teams had to strongly despise the increased potential for injury. Now, batters have a set number of swings that they can take, so they can be selective instead of worrying about trying to hit every pitch.
It also creates a better viewing experience for everybody, as those watching on TV won’t miss swings or have to deal with the cameras frantically snapping back to get into position. Similarly, fans in the outfield seats don’t have to worry about getting domed with a dinger while looking at where the previous one landed.
And, as I said, the kids shagging fly balls are much more protected with this environment. Guys hit the ball pretty damn hard these days and every millisecond matters.
2026 Home Run Derby Player Stats
Included here are the player’s number of homers and some other stats that I find valuable when handicapping the Home Run Derby.
Odds and stats as of 10:45 a.m. PT on July 12
Jac Caglianone (+650)
Caglianone has the fewest homers in the field with 15, but don’t let that impact your handicapping. He is a violent swinger who ranks in the 97th percentile in Bat Speed, 98th percentile in Hard Hit%, and 91st percentile in Barrel%. The problem for Caglianone in game conditions is that he ranks in the 16th percentile in Chase% and 17th percentile in Whiff%. His 29.7% K% prevents him from maximizing his contact potential.
His average launch angle is also a little low at 7.1 degrees for a power hitter, which means he tends to rip some line drives. He does have a 19.1% Pull Air%, which is definitely above the league average of 16.8%.
Of his 15 HR, 11 have been classified “No Doubters” by Statcast. In terms of Expected HR by Ballpark (xHR), Caglianone would go from 15 to 17 if he played in Philadelphia full-time based on wall heights, distances, and environmental effects using Statcast Park Factor data.
Caglianone’s dad, Jeff, will be pitching to him. This is always tough because dads have thrown to their kids forever, but probably not a whole lot recently and certainly not for game BP.
Junior Caminero (+425)
The 23-year-old Caminero has followed up last season’s 45 homers with 28 here in the first half. Caminero hit 10 homers in June in just 112 plate appearances and has added five more in the month of July out of his eight hits. He homered in six straight games from 6/25-7/1 and then added two more consecutive games after going homerless on 7/2.
He is a guy with vicious power. Hit Bat Speed ranks in the 100th percentile and he is in the 93rd percentile in Hard Hit% and 85th in Barrel%. His 24% Pull Air% is substantially above the league average of 16.8%, so he is a guy that is actively trying to get out in front and drive the ball with some authority – precisely the approach you want in this type of contest.
Of his 28 HR, 19 of them are No Doubters and keep in mind that he plays in a pretty good pitcher’s park in Tampa Bay, where he’s hit 17 long balls. If he played every game at Citizens Bank Park, his xHR is 27, so one off of his season total.
This is Caminero’s second HR Derby. He finished second to Cal Raleigh last year and hit 44 home runs over three rounds, including 15 in the Finals and tied for the most in Round 1 with 21. He would have hit more, but he only had to hit eight in the Semifinals to beat Byron Buxton. Raleigh, meanwhile, set the bar against Oneil Cruz with 19.
Tomas Francisco, who pitched to Caminero last year and to Randy Arozarena when he finished second back in 2023, will be throwing here again.
Willson Contreras (+1200)
Contreras is well-rested heading into the Home Run Derby, as he spent the end of the first half of the season serving a suspension. The 34-year-old has 20 HR on the season, which actually matches his total from 2025 in about 200 fewer plate appearances. Unlike others in the field, he is not a prolific home run hitter – the most he’s had in a season is just 24. But, he ranks in the 96th percentile in Bat Speed and 88th percentile in Barrel%. He also has one of the higher average launch angles in this field, which could prove to be beneficial. In game conditions, he’s hit a lot of pop ups. This should be different.
Contreras’s approach has changed dramatically this year. His Pull Air% is 26.2% is not only well above the league average, but also well above any other season he’s ever had. He had a career-best 19.8% Pull Air% last season. Prior to that, he was below the league average just about every season during the Statcast era, which dates back to 2016, his first season in the bigs.
Of his 20 HR, 12 are No Doubters and his xHR in Philly is 20. Contreras will have interim bench coach Jose David Flores pitching to him. Flores has been throwing BP off and on to Contreras since 2013 when they were in the Cubs organization together.
Bryce Harper (+850)
The 2018 Home Run Derby champion could make history here, as no player has ever won the HRD twice in his home ballpark. Harper was a member of the Nationals when he did it last time and hit 45 homers over three rounds at Nationals Park. His first Home Run Derby appearance came back in 2013, so it’s pretty impressive to see him in this 13 years later, in what will be his third career appearance.
The 33-year-old has 20 bombs on the season and looks poised to come close to the 35 that he hit back in 2021 and 2019 with the Phillies. He hit 30 back in 2024 and 27 last season, as he’s remained an extremely productive hitter year in and year out. One thing about Harper to keep in mind is that over 30% of his plate appearances annually are strikeouts or walks, which limits his chances of hitting home runs in game conditions. That’s true of a lot of sluggers, but Harper has carried a double-digit BB% in every season but two as a big leaguer.
That said, some of the other metrics are a little concerning. His Bat Speed only ranks in the 74th percentile and his Barrel% is in the 75th percentile this season. His BB% is in the 96th percentile, though, so, again, that’s a root cause of not hitting as many homers in games. His 16.4% Pull Air% is below league average as well.
Only seven of Harper’s 20 HR are No Doubters and his xHR in Philly is 22. Harper will use Dodgers third base coach Dino Ebel as his pitcher. Ebel pitched to Kyle Schwarber last year in the swing-off that decided the All-Star Game when it was tied after nine innings. Schwarber hit homers on all three swings.
Munetaka Murakami (+500)
Murakami just returned from the IL on Friday, so it’s fair to wonder if he’s in rhythm with his swing and his timing. The 26-year-old first-year big leaguer has 20 HR in just 60 games, as he missed more than a month from May 30-July 10 with injury. Back in 2022, Murakami hit 56 home runs in 141 games for Yakult. He hit 22 HR in just 56 games in 2025 and then made his way stateside to continue his career.
First-timers are always tough to gauge and Murakami will also be in the spotlight with international media and all of the other craziness that goes into this set of events. Statistically speaking, Murakami ranks in the 87th percentile in Bat Speed, 99th percentile in Barrel% and 100th percentile in Hard Hit%. He makes contact at extreme levels…when he makes contact. He’s struck out over a third of the time this season and also walked over 17% of the time, so that’s 50% of his plate appearances without contact made.
Because that’s not really a concern here, he’s a very dangerous participant, assuming he’s able to find his stroke post-IL. He has a 19.4% Pull Air% this season and 13 of his 20 dingers are No Doubters. He ranks in the bottom 1% in Whiff%, meaning he truly does swing and miss a lot. I really do believe that makes him a huge wild card here. His xHR in Philly is 19.
Regular BP thrower Luis Sierra will pitch to Murakami. He pitched to Luis Robert Jr. in this event back in 2023 and Robert hit 28 HR in the first round. It does help to have a pitcher who can calm a hitter’s nerves by grooving pitches.
Ben Rice (+850)
This season for Rice has been a rather interesting one. He’s hit 29 homers, surpassing the 26 that he hit last season in 138 games. But, his Barrel% and Hard Hit% were both higher last season and so was his Pull Air%. For whatever reason, he’s getting rewarded a lot more this season for his contact quality. His launch angle hasn’t changed, his average exit velocity is a little bit lower, and his Bat Speed is even a touch slower. But, for whatever reason, he’s finding more success.
By no means am I downplaying what Rice has done. He ranks in the 91st percentile in Barrel% and 81st percentile in Hard Hit%. His LA Sweet-Spot% ranks in the 89th percentile, which is a standout number in this field. That is a Statcast metric that measures the percentage of batted balls hit between 8 degrees and 32 degrees in launch angle. That is the optimal range for hitting a baseball and a byproduct of hitting it on the “sweet spot” of the bat.
That said, only seven of Rice’s 29 HR are No Doubters. However, his xHR in Philadelphia is 33, a rather surprising number given how we perceive Yankee Stadium, especially for left-handed hitters. His Pull Air% was 25.2% in 2025 and sits at 21.5% this season. Regardless, he knows how to get the hips out front and drive the baseball to the pull side in what surely seems to be a favorable park given that xHR number.
Rice’s dad, Dan, will pitch to him. Rice’s dad still throws to him in the offseason, but, as mentioned above with Caglianone, fathers are a tough handicap in this thing.
Kyle Schwarber (+330)
Being the favorite in your home ballpark can be a pretty nervy thing, even for a veteran of this contest and a player approaching 6,000 career MLB plate appearances. Schwarber hit 56 home runs last season, has 32 so far this season, and has hit at least 32 homers in every season since the 60-game COVID year. Schwarber is a DH, so this format probably benefits him in that he’s used to having long periods of downtime and trips to the cage to stay sharp. Position players aren’t really accustomed to having long gaps of doing next to nothing.
Schwarber’s metrics support his favorite role. He’s in the 96th percentile in Bat Speed, 98th percentile in Barrel%, 96th percentile in Hard Hit%, and, perhaps most importantly, leads the field in LA Sweet-Spot% while ranking in the 90th percentile. He’s also in the 94th percentile in BB% and bottom 1% in K%, so he maximizes the situations when he does make contact.
His 34.6% Pull Air% is an absurd number. He was at 31.1% last season and 29.8% in 2023. He’s been consistently well above the league average in this department and nearly doubles the league average this season. It’s an important stat because it’s much harder to drive balls out to the deepest part of the park in this event.
Of his 32 HR, 15 of them are No Doubters and his xHR in Philadelphia is 35. He’s another left-handed stick whose xHR in Philly is higher than his real total, joining Rice, Harper, and Caglianone. Murakami is the only LHB with a lower xHR than his actual total.
Schwarber will roll with assistant hitting coach Rafael Pena and there is a ton of familiarity there.
Jordan Walker (+700)
The 24-year-old Walker is a first-time participant in the Home Run Derby. Walker’s 22 HR seem kind of unimpressive in this field, but he is just 24 and made his MLB debut at 21 with 16 HR in 117 games. Injuries and other maladies have derailed his MLB career, but he seems to have figured it out now.
He’s a big man with a very violent swing. The 6-foot-6, 250-pounder certainly benefits from the swing format vs. the time format, as he would have very likely tired out. He has 100th percentile Bat Speed with an 88th percentile Barrel% and a 93rd percentile Hard Hit%. Like a lot of power hitters, he swings and misses a lot, something that isn’t a factor here. However, he doesn’t walk much, unlike most power bats, so that seems a tad concerning to make more contact, but not have more homers.
Part of the problem for Walker is that his 16.6% Pull Air% is below the league average of 16.8%. His Oppo Air% of 19.7% is also above the league average. So he’s a guy using the entire field. Obviously he can change his approach in this contest to try and pull the ball more, but it’s a little bit unnatural for him compared to others.
On the year, 11 of his 22 round-trippers have been No Doubters. His xHR in Philly is 24 HR, so above his actual total.
Walker will use Albert Pujols’s 2022 pitcher here, as Cardinals bullpen catcher Kleininger Teran gets the call.
2026 Home Run Derby Predictions
Odds as of 10:45 a.m. PT on July 12
Winner – Junior Caminero (+425)
Caminero, the second favorite on the board, had a good showing last year and will go back to the same pitcher here in Tomas Francisco. This will be his third time pitching in this event and you have to think he and Caminero have been talking about it for a while since he was a lock to compete again based on his prodigious power. His youth also strikes me as a competitive advantage.
Caminero hit 44 HR with room for more last season with Francisco pitching and Arozarena hit 72 HR with Francisco in 2023, including 35 in the Semifinals.
Round 1 Home Runs – Ben Rice Over 9.5 (+115)
I have some interest in Rice +850 as well, but his dad is pitching to him and that’s such a hard dynamic to handicap. It also becomes tougher as you advance, as the nerves really get going for somebody so invested. But, I do think that Rice has a good swing path and this is a good venue for him. He’s more of a line drive home run hitter than others, which has been a successful approach in the past.
I love a lot of the metrics for Rice in terms of launch angle and contact authority while having less Bat Speed than everybody else in the field. That’s some pretty good swing efficiency given the new format.
As a correlation with this play, I think Rice +120 to Make the Semifinals is a good bet as well.
Round 1 Home Runs – Jac Caglianone Under 9.5 (+100)
Caglianone’s pitch selection is my biggest question here, especially with his dad throwing to him. He didn’t walk a lot in 2023 in college, even though he hit 33 HR. In 2024, he hit 35 HR, but pitchers worked around him a lot more. At the MLB level, he only has a 7.5% BB% and I think he runs the risk of getting a little too impatient with the finite number of swings now. Had the 23-year-old had a timed round, his youth and aggressiveness may have served him well. I’m not so sure about that here.
Distance of Longest Home Run – Over 484.5 Feet (-115)
A lot has been made lately of the increased carry on the baseball. It’s an annual thing that the playing object is fundamentally different and the inconsistencies in production vary from season to season. This year, the ball is carrying more.
Citizens Bank Park is also a place where the ball is carrying more than other venues. The ballpark ranks eighth in “Variable Extra Distance” at 2.9 feet. Temperature plays a big role, as, incredibly, Philadelphia has the second-highest average temperature this season at 78.5 degrees. It should be in the low 80s at first pitch of the Derby and there are some guys that can really hit tape-measure homers.
See more Home Run Derby odds from DraftKings Sportsbook.
