2026 National League Cy Young Futures Best Bets:
As the MLB season nears the All-Star break, finding any value on the futures boards becomes increasingly difficult. The books have enough data to dig their heels into the ground and take stances on teams, players and awards.
Cam Schlittler’s season is no longer a surprise as his triple-digit odds for American League Cy Young have moved into the minus range (-125).
Yes, Kyle Schwarber can make another run at a home run title. That is why the books have priced him at -220. No, the Dodgers won’t be challenged for a National League West title, so they are listed at an astronomical number (-10000), thus preventing bettors from even making peanuts on them moving forward.
Even with so many favorites now established (both in the minds of bookmakers and bettors), there is still a plus number out there that clearly has value and a path to actually cash the ticket. In fact, this number is not just a plus one, but is available in the 30/1 range.
The best value option currently on the MLB futures board is Zack Wheeler (+3000 at DraftKings) to win the National League Cy Young Award. The Phillies ace is one of nine players in the realistic realm of winning this award.
Of course, the competition is filled with marquee players who have the statistics to merit votes. Because of the names associated with this award, the winner could come down to old school measurables like Wins, ERA, Strikeouts and WHIP. Veteran voters know so much about these candidates that they won’t need to get into the weeds of advanced metrics.
Given the context that those challenging for this award have the prerequisite statistical performance, the race can currently be handicapped by focusing just on the individual narratives of the pitchers. If the numbers are similar, the narratives will influence voters come decision time.
So let’s break down the NL Cy Young Award race by explaining the very possible ways Wheeler can leapfrog those currently ahead of him on the odds board. After looking at how much support Wheeler can generate by the narratives associated with his work this season, and how it might ding the work of others, that 30/1 price is teeming with value.
Odds courtesy of DraftKings
National League Cy Young
Jacob Misiorowski (-225)
Cristopher Sanchez (+350)
Paul Skenes (+2500)
Chris Sale (+2000)
Shohei Ohtani (+2500)
Chase Burns (+3000)
Yoshinobu Yamamoto (+3000)
Zack Wheeler (+3000)
The handicapping begins by stating Wheeler’s case and then examining how the myriad of narratives can shape the race in his favor.
Zack Wheeler
Since joining Philadelphia in 2020, he has received Cy Young votes five times, including two second-place finishes. Voters are clearly inclined to support him and that should continue for someone currently 8-1 with a 2.03 ERA.
Where his candidacy really excels is in the narrative category. His return from rehabbing his thoracic injury coincided with the 9-18 Phillies turning their season around to back to being one of the NL’s elite.
That fact gets repeated regularly by the local and national media. Also, there is plenty of chatter in the Philadelphia media right now if Wheeler is the organization’s best-ever free-agent acquisition. Wheeler is being compared to Pete Rose, who led the downtrodden franchise to its first-ever World Series championship, and Bryce Harper, who is responsible for Bedlam at the Bank.
There is a lot of juice behind Wheeler now in the media, and it will only grow as he continues to look strong. Think about the late-season narratives in his favor – Wheeler returns from a possible career-ending injury to lead the Phillies’ resurgence and finally wins an award he previously just missed out on. Seems plausible while making the 30/1 look out of place.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
The Dodgers have become the West Coast version of the evil empire as they seemingly take advantage of the system to throw around hundreds of millions of dollars to land marquee free agents…ones like Yamamoto.
The same resentment fans have towards the Dodgers could be traveling into the press level where Cy Young Award voters reside. They just might be hesitant to give another Dodger a top award, as the MVP seems like a lock to once again go to Ohtani.
In MLB history, only 19 times have two different players on the same team won the MVP and Cy Young (the last time was Detroit in 2013 with Miguel Cabrera and Max Scherzer).
Chase Burns
An up-and-comer now clearly in the same conversation with the NL’s best pitchers. That is a good sign for the long-term chances of Burns winning the Cy Young, but this year his team is residing in the Central Division basement. A much different location than many predicted during the offseason. A Burns Cy Young Award would need to be accompanied by a Cincinnati Central Division title.
Shohei Ohtani
He is going to win the MVP, and his pitching performance – as great as it is – is already accounted for in the votes for that award.
Also, with Los Angeles’ roster of talent, it is very difficult to argue Ohtani’s pitching brought his team to an even higher level. That type of narrative will boost Misiorowski and Wheeler.
When Clayton Kershaw pulled off winning the MVP and Cy Young in the same season (2014), voters clearly saw a massive distance between him and the runners-up (Johnny Cueto and Adam Wainwright). This year, the field is deeper, and other hurlers are already standing in Ohtani’s way.
Chris Sale
The Atlanta lefty already has a Cy Young Award to his credit. He got that in 2024 when he beat out Wheeler. The Braves are now stumbling, and it will be hard to give Sale credit if they turn it around because he is now at the point of being a six-inning pitcher. Sale’s odds should not be lower than Wheeler’s at this point.
Paul Skenes
The bloom has quickly fallen off of this Pittsburgh rose. In just a matter of weeks, the narrative surrounding last year’s Cy Young Award winner has gone from possibly being the best pitcher in the MLB to now if he belongs in the NL’s Top 5.
Last year, Skenes’ dominance was worthy of the award regardless of how well the Pirates performed. This year, the Pirates rode into the season with expectations of finally making the playoffs. Right now, the Pirates have a losing record and just above Cincinnati in the standings. Moving forward, the next Cy Young Award Skenes wins will have to be paired with Pittsburgh making the postseason.
Cristopher Sanchez
Wheeler’s teammate got plenty of Cy Young buzz throughout May, but recent poor performances against Milwaukee and Washington have hurt his stock. That has led to a shift in narratives to where Wheeler is now getting noticed as the best pitcher on the Philadelphia staff. Sanchez is still firmly a top candidate, but is unquestionably pitching in the shadow of Misiorowski and his own teammate.
There should not be such a gap in odds between Sanchez and Wheeler, who has higher brand name equity and risen to the status of the best pitcher not to win a Cy Young Award. Think about how voters may approach these two Phillies: Sanchez has plenty of time to win the Cy Young, and this could be the last time for Wheeler. Comparing the +350 on Sanchez with the +3000 for Wheeler is a quantitative way of demonstrating the value on the much longer shot.
Jacob Misiorowski
Here is where the Wheeler Cy Young handicapping gets most interesting. Sticking with the power of narrative, The Miz deserves to be such an odds-on favorite. He is regularly throwing over 100 MPH and even hit a headline-worthy 105.5.
He has deservedly gotten most of the credit for Milwaukee once again leading the NL Central when many thought they would take a major step back. So Misiorowski has the stats and narrative on his side, as well as the status of being the mid-season, why not vote for him?
Well, the answer is a price such as -225 at this point provides absolutely no value. Rather than wager units on that future play, invest in the Yankees at +200 to win the American League. Also, and perhaps the biggest reason to fade The Miz is the question of whether he can physically hold up to throwing that hard.
The track record of flame throwers fizzling out mid-season is a long one. In his short time in the majors, the lanky righty has already missed some innings due to injuries. After Misiorowski’s electric performance against the Phillies with 15Ks in mid-June, Pat Murphy pushed back his next start in favor of more rest.
Bettors have to be concerned that Misiorowski could face injuries when he is throwing with such abnormal velocity. Or Milwaukee could back down its ace in August and September as they prioritize October success over an individual award.
Once again, he rightfully should be the favorite and is on track to win the award; however, there should not be such a monumental gap in odds between him and Wheeler. There are going to be plenty of starts for Wheeler to make up this gap.
Action
As bullish as I am on Wheeler for Cy Young, it is still listed as a long shot for a reason, so invest units accordingly. Bettors often inquire about how to use free bets or “boosts” offered by sportsbooks. Those types of promos are only offered with small wagers, so use them in a highly speculative manner. One such as Wheeler to win the National League Cy Young Award, which really should not be priced in such a speculative way.
