Netherlands vs Morocco | 2026 FIFA World Cup Round of 32 | Monday, June 29 | 9PM EST | Estadio BBVA | Monterrey
Netherlands (+130) | Draw (+215) | Morocco (+250)
Over 2.5 Goals (+115) | Under 2.5 Goals (-145)
Netherlands -0.5 (+120) | Morocco +0.5 (-155)
Group F’s winner faces off against Group C’s runner-up Monday evening in Monterrey — exactly 32 years to the day after the only competitive meeting between the two sides. Netherlands beat Morocco 2-1 in the group stage at USA ’94, and they come into this fixture favored by the sportsbooks.
The Netherlands topped Group F with seven points and 10 goals in three matches, including a 5-1 demolition of Sweden that demonstrated the attacking firepower Oranje have in their ranks. What Ronald Koeman doesn’t possess is a solid defense after they let the lead slip twice in their 2-2 draw with Japan and conceded against Sweden and Tunisia.
Morocco finished runners-up in Group C with seven points and an unbeaten record that included a 1-1 draw with Brazil. Ismael Saibari scored in all three group stage matches — the first African player to do so in World Cup history — but there are real concerns about the defense this side is built around after they let Haiti put two past them in the final group game.
Two nations with defensive struggles and attackers in form. We’ll find out which side comes up short.
NETHERLANDS TEAM NEWS
Micky van de Ven will return to left-back after being benched for their final group game against Tunisia. The Tottenham center-back was on a yellow card and Koeman rested him with the knockout stage in mind.
Brobbey is expected to lead the line again after three goals in his two starts, leaving Summerville on the bench despite his two goals in the opening two games.
Cody Gakpo has scored in all three group games and is remaining with the squad after the tragic loss of his unborn child this week.
Netherlands Predicted Lineup 4-3-3
Manager: Ronald Koeman
GK: B. Verbruggen
RB: D. Dumfries | CB: J. P. van Hecke | CB: V. van Dijk | LB: M. van de Ven
CM: R. Gravenberch | CM: F. de Jong | CM: T. Reijnders
RW: D. Malen | CF: Brian Brobbey | LW: C. Gakpo
MOROCCO TEAM NEWS
Bayern Munich-bound Saibari will lead the line again. Issa Diop, Azzedine Ounahi, Ayyoub Bouaddi and Noussair Mazraoui are all set to be restored to the starting lineup after they were rested for the final group game against Haiti.
Morocco’s most dangerous weapon is their right flank, and it arrives in Monterrey intact with Achraf Hakimi and Brahim Díaz both fit and ready.
Morocco Predicted Lineup 4-2-3-1
Manager: Mohamed Ouahbi
GK: Bono
RB: A. Hakimi (C) | CB: I. Diop | CB: C. Riad | LB: N. Mazraoui
CM: A. Bouaddi | CM: N. El Aynaoui
RM: B. Díaz | AM: A. Ounahi | LM: B. El Khannouss
CF: I. Saibari
MATCH BREAKDOWN
If you read my Netherlands vs Sweden Preview you’ll know I raised concerns about the Dutch backline and they haven’t gone anywhere. Van de Ven at left-back now faces Achraf Hakimi — one of the best attacking fullbacks in world football — threatening to overlap behind him all night. A player who relies on his pace to recover from mistakes is about to face a player with similar speed and far superior technical ability.
Against Brazil, Morocco pressed high and transitioned quickly when they won possession, creating rapid counter-attacks through Hakimi and El Khannouss. The Dutch backline was caught in transition against Sweden when Anthony Elanga raced beyond them and scored — Morocco has the pace and the system to exploit the same weakness.
Morocco’s backline also has questions to answer and I’m particularly interested to see how they handle a confident Brian Brobbey riding high on his three goals. The Sunderland center-forward wins duels, unsettles defenders and generates danger by physically imposing himself on his opponents.
Morocco’s defensive block deliberately restricted space in central areas against Brazil, forcing play wide — Vinicius Junior’s equalizer was a moment of individual brilliance rather than a product of any Morocco defensive breakdown. Cody Gakpo has scored in all three group games operating in exactly that left wide-to-central channel. Whether Morocco’s defense can keep him quiet is one of the key tactical questions of this game.
THE BET
I have a futures ticket on Morocco to reach the Last 16 at +125. If I didn’t have that, I’d be backing them to advance at +130 — a price that feels too good to turn down for a side that held Brazil to a draw, possesses one of the tournament’s in-form attackers in Saibari, and sets up tactically to exploit exactly the defensive vulnerabilities the Dutch have shown during the group stage.
With the Netherlands arriving in fine attacking form, Both Teams To Score Yes at -125 is where I’m putting my money.
Pick: Both Teams To Score Yes -125
